Member Info for GMAC

Quite amazing that a fund with so much cash under management, didn't know the rules surrounding one of the biggest shorting hedges in european history. They are just a concerned citizen. The lack of DBNO on here, even with the oil price falling combined with PMO treading water even under a $4 fall in oil, gives me more confidence that ARCM are looking at a serious problem.

If anyone wishes to add or reduce / delete their limit order position, I'll try to be on here a bit more often to update.

GMac £72k
Bladesman £300k
Goodfellow £160k
Heardy £28K ( 30k Shares )
Colin Fleming £59k
Beer Bull £186K ( 200k Shares, indicated more )
Grippa £110k ( 120K shares )
Jw61 £253K ( 272K shares )
JSB1 £100K ( 105K Shares )
Loofer £46K ( 50k Shares )
Lucky_Lady £43K (47K Shares )
Peter Lowen £125K ( 135K Shares )
Jeffrey1979 ??

£1482K worth of shares closed off for loans so far from this board. On a £773m valuation. That equates to just under 0.2% of the total shares out there, but almost 1% of noted shorts on shortracker. It would be interesting to see just how many PI's we can get on board.

I will dig out my Limit order list from a couple of weeks ago. It may have changed if a few bailed out on the big rise, but worth keeping track off as shorts other than AMRC begin to reduce their positions.

After a busy holiday, I reminded myself to update the shorting numbers after our limit order flurry. Probably not worth looking at now, but every little bit helps and to be honest, this seems to be a story of a firm doing the right thing in bringing itself back from the brink. this board like a lot of others is full of doom mongers, naysayers, dreamers, rampers and downright trolls. Notwithstanding that, the fundamentals of this business shine through to a PI like me. As Brent stayed above $60 and zama was acknowledged as a potential cash sale, then (barring a major catastrophe), there was only one way for the share to go. I have a 2 year old holding bought on average at 114. Like many I have hung around this board but not posted much. To those who have always provided solid financial arguments, I thank you for your input. To those who simply came on to scare, bullsh*t or otherwise create fear for genuine PI's, then hell mend you.

I have no idea if this is the start of a major upturn or simply a new trading level or even whether ARCM could yet spanner the works, but what I do know is that God, nature, technical failure or force majeure apart, the company seems to be on a much more solid footing, with a real game plan. Who knows what Zama may be worth but maybe it is a straight cash deal which in turn will finance the majority of today's acquisition, leaving us a tax free producing asset. Any way good luck to all thee who are still inhere and to those who took their profits. our wee exercise of placing limit orders may not have sunk ARCM, but at least we can say we did something to make life more difficult for them. Onwards and Upwards.

GMac £72k
Bladesman £300k
Goodfellow £160k
Heardy £28K ( 30k Shares )
Colin Fleming £59k
Beer Bull £186K ( 200k Shares, indicated more )
Grippa £110k ( 120K shares )
Jw61 £253K ( 272K shares )
JSB1 £100K ( 105K Shares )
Loofer £46K ( 50k Shares )
Lucky_Lady £43K (47K Shares )
Peter Lowen £125K ( 135K Shares )
Jeffrey1979 ??

£1482K worth of shares closed off for loans so far from this board. On a £773m valuation. That equates to just under 0.2% of the total shares out there, but almost 1% of noted shorts on shortracker. It would be interesting to see just how many PI's we can get on board.

GMac £72k
Bladesman £300k
Goodfellow £160k
Heardy £28K ( 30k Shares )
Colin Fleming £59k
Beer Bull £93K ( 100k Shares, indicated more )
Grippa £11k ( 12K shares )

£723K worth of shares closed off for loans so far from this board. On a £773m valuation. That equates to just under 0.1% of the total shares out there, but 0.5% of noted shorts on shortracker. It's not going to kill off ARCM, but the more that can be closed off for borrowing the better.

:) Heardy

I'm in pretty heavily in comparison to available funds. 30K shares could be 2% of your portfolio. don't think any assumptions should be made on what folk hold as most of us are here to see the share rise and even a few hundred taken off the market is a positive if the smarter financial minds here really believe it can help.

Fair play to you. If we get a lot like that, it might actually make a difference after all, if it is the liquidity of available shares that is Oxygen to the MM's shorting.

Large holders here could be all in and multi millionaires might have just a few shares in here and a motherload elsewhere. So without it descending into a "swinging d*ck" contest on size of holding, maybe we could do a Blue peter fundometer on just how many shares we can take out of circulation by New Year. I bought in ( thankfully after leaving Tullow ) on three tranches averaging at 114 and have been twiddling my thumbs since the meldown last October.

I'll kick off with £72,000

The fact that Halifax can loan my shares to short is new to me as well. I thought as i purchased them through Halifax, they were mine to sit on. I have £72k of PMO and am on here at least 5 times a day, just not posting. Will be doing a £1.80 stop myself this evening. We may not be a huge group but if tens of thousands of shares are removed from the loan out game, it should at least have a positive affect, no matter how small.

the average barrel price for 2017 was $54.25 and Tullow was able to pay off debts quite well at that rate, so hopefully the barrel average can stay above that. They've had 6 weeks production at $62 to $71, so that helps the years average. If the rest of the year is at $55 plus, then debt payment should match this year ( rights issue aside ). My concern is that as good as Tullow gets, sentiment as opposed to fundamentals seems to rule at present and it seems that oil is caught in a negative environment that may only be changed by a $ change, reduction in inflation fears or by economic growth and the subsequent consumption outweighing shale production. It's a long wait until the next trading update.

If I don’t laugh I’d sit and bubble. Seen £20k profit drop to £4K if that and more than likely that will get wiped today. Lots of folk laughed at dbno when he talked about a ten percent drop in oil at 71 and 160 as an sp. whilst I might not like his championing if the share price dropping and we can talk about broken clocks getting it right, it does show that we can all talk about company fundamentals and compare yearly progress, but if the MM’s and the market want it, then company value can evaporate on a whim. We just went sub 65, last seen in December, yet at that point we were around 220p, so I’m beginning to realise that there is no normality or logic to an sp, It’s just what the big boys and MM’decide it is. Looks like I’m going to be more long term than I thought. Wild wishes of a Total Oil acquisition or the shorts finally relinquishing ground seem very far away. It seems the anticipation of a result is much greater and more interesting. than the result itself. Much like meeting a lassie on a night out. Probably time to stop looking at charts for a while. Life in shares is always what if!

I'm going togo back to radio silence I think. I only seem to jinx the share. That's the SP down 44p since mid January high and the brent price only down by 1$. there's a good reason I'm not a broker / trader. I have to say that for all those who laugh at DBNO's posts, his predictions have a nasty habit of eventually landing, although oil is only 5% off the high as opposed to 10% at the moment. makes you wonder if he's a bloody MM :) It's for that reason I'm very slow to laugh at anyone's posts. Although still up from my 172p, I'm now �18K down on profit from the high. It shows what naivety, a rosy outlook and a small touch of greed does to the small investor looking for the big one.

Per my past post i expect the Tullow SP to grow based on fundamentals, but after the US drop on Friday and the rest of the world now getting a head today cold from a US sneeze, you just never know what will affect the share price. My long term logic however tells me that if the US economy, Euro Economy and those of developing markets are expected to grow, then no matter the intro of battery cars, oil consumption will rise. Populations are now larger. I just googled it and there is amazingly 800 million more people in the world compared to 10 years ago when the financial crisis hit . As population grows and income increases in developed countries, I can only see non car fuel oil demand rise to make products for consumers, unless we find a miracle replacement for plastic and other oil based products. We have a drop today of 0.7% to $68.1 a barrel for Brent, however if you'd said a year ago we would have this price in a reasonably sustained period of time, we would have been ecstatic. The likes of Shell have just announced huge profits, not just based on barrel price but cost efficiencies, so if a behemoth like shell can do this, then hopefully Tullow can follow suit. Equally a giant such as shell / Total / Exxon with cash in the bank, may look upon Tullow as a useful geographical addition to their portfolio of assets, especially with lower debt and better cost structure. A lot of what i am saying above is stated with a positive outlook. The share could still drop if there are hidden issues such as the Kenya rumour or if the US volatility continues. The US index fell 2.5% on Friday and is forecast to drop today, yet oil hasn't been hit quite as much as other sectors. We could still have a big oil retrace to sub $60, but every day that brent sits in the late 60's, Tullow's debt pile grows smaller, it's interest payments drop and it's free cash flow rises. We still have the platform shutdown and repair to come and any delay may hit us, but if there are no Kenya scares at the AGM and if the debt reduction is forecast to continue as planned, then in my very amateur opinion, Tullow becomes a much stronger company or a much more favourable target. Saying that the SP dropped 10p since i last voice my optimism for Tullow on here, so what do I know, when MM's and the market can move it about at will.

Having been an avid reader of posts on here for many a month now, I thought I would voice my own opinion. I have a �70K stake in here which was bought at an average of 172p. I bought at 199, 192 and 50% of my stake at 149 to average down . If i was smart or brave enough or listened to my gut, I would already have sold out twice at 230 plus and bought back in at the 205 mark, but fear of the next step up is as constant as fear of the drop. Having seen a smaller stake in kaz drop from 240p to 80p in 2015 / 16, then sell it off at break even only to see it rise to 960p, my worry is that Tullow could be another Kaz. Much is similar, Kaz was heavily indebted in a commodities market that had tanked, it had cost structure issues and inefficient processes, coupled with geo-political issues. At 80p, they were a steal, but of course I was too worried about recovering my stake. I breatheed a sigh of relief as i sold only to watch it quadruple. All the while the great and the good of brokers said it was worthless, then lo and behold it had some positive news, eventually stabilized in a rising market and thereafter took off as brokers tried to play catch up with the share price. 965 was its peak and it rests in the mid 800's now - ten to 12 times its Nov 2015 price. Now I'm not saying lightning strikes twice and i only go on news, current affairs, politics and market fundamentals. I don't know a bollinger from a candle, but debt is down by 25%, gearing is lower. the oil price has risen almost 70%, meaning that pay down is much quicker and therefore free cash and interest payment costs are all going in the right direction. Maritime border disputes are won and there is pipleline potential on drilling sites at a lower cost base. I may be proved sorely wrong and it won't be the first time, but short of the odd inevitable retrace, I can only see this go higher the longer the oil price sits at $60 plus, which is has now since oct 23rd, a full quarter. Manipulation is one thing, but if it has half of the headwind that Kaz had with many of the same issues, then over the coming months, I hope to see it follow the same trajectory, if perhaps not twelve bagging its nadir price or moving at quite the same vertical speed.

Yeah they do, as do a few now. Brokers seem to be very erratic and often seem to chase the story instead of being ahead of it, but the consensus on a healthier price point seems to be growing here. This is an old long hold for me at 240, so if I can get back there I can at least banish the 80p days of last September. If only that had been my buy in.

Will it hold though is the question?. If it does, I'm hoping for a move up to 220 based on where recent re-ratings are. McQuarrie at 260 and credit suisse at 250 are at the higher end, but most are now around the 170 to 200 mark, so I'm banking on them being cautious and with the recent results and cost reductions, I'm hoping this might take a hike sooner rather than later. However that probably means it will settle back at 190.

wondering if £2 is a psychological resistance or a technical one?? And if the former, where we might be short term should it break? Answers on a postcard.

Most are at 25 - 30% of highs. Look at Xstrata, Lonmin etc.. BHP are half waht they were. This is due to china down turn and world slowdown but China and India will keep growing and resources have to be provided. Good buys long term and will induce consolidation.

Most are at 25 - 30% of highs. Look at Xstrata, Lonmin etc.. BHP are half waht they were. This is du to china down turn and world slowdown but China and India will keep growing and resources have to be provided. Good buys long term and will induce consolidation.