Member Info for glenmere

On the subject of the pros and cons of Consolidation... the strategy behind AIM companies ( who prior to the big C, were effectively penny shares) is to make themselves easier "buy" targets for institutional investors and hence participate in the big boys' M&A game.

The reason why we see mid-term ( towards the ultimate takeover deal) lows is that many penny share traders have lost interest and have sold out , to move on to better short term trading shares. In other words, the daily volatility generated by penny share traders that occasionally drove the share price trends upwards, is now largely diminished. We are now firmly in official price-sensitive territory that governs our share price for SAR. We are no longer driven by penny share trader activity.

All good for SAR LTH if a large M&A ( take-over) deal is on the horizon. Fingers crossed.

Yes, i think the market is watching and waiting for the results on the Trials on Psoriasis , hopefully due before the Autumn. But which leads me to wonder if a " deal " as in a sub-licence of 1801 to a big pharma for commercial formulation is the best approach? 1801 is so much more capable and has a bigger scope for treatment of other diseases. Sub-licensing just for psorriasis isn't optimal .

LTH here... had a speed-read of the trials summary. It looks like we could expect preliminary results as early as this Autumn. The SDC 1801 trials will be conducted over approximately 3 weeks. Data points will be measured and stats collated before the 3 weeks is up. Autumn date is an estimate and is dependent on when the trials are starting ( or started).

Fully agree and I would also that buying or selling is always set off by the brokers / market makers, upon receipt or their suspicion of price sensitive info. They will then "offer" to the stock exchanges a Bid and Ask price. Buyers or Sellers will then be prompted to make appropriate action based on their reading of the Bid -Ask prices

Just under 2m new shares will be created. There are 1,100 + m shares already in circulation. The "dilution " in share price is relatively negligible... about 0.15 % !

However, this is just the " maths "... Investment or divestment psychology is dependent on the investors' perception if current management (or beneficiaries) is worth these new "free" shares given to them or not.

But I suspect little dampening on the SP. Today's depression of the SP is probably due to the rise in Crude Oil futures. Investment monies are gravitating towards oil this week.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/gold-forecast-xauusd-extend-its-rally-slowing-inflation

A recent article from Gold-Eagle about the Gold price trend with respect to USD. The contributors to its daily editorial have so far been pretty spot-on. My wife trades in Gold futures and relies a fair bit on them.

Anyway, back to Gold's behaviour, there will be an inflection point coming up this Thursday , in the US inflation estimates. Which way Gold will swing significantly, will depend on Thursday 's US inflation data.

There was an article on Gold-Eagle that gave a mid-term view to Gold prices. A forecast was that Gold would hit a "high" of 1865 or thereabouts before Christmas and then trade in a +/- 5% range until the Spring. So if one were to take a snapshot at a particular time in the next several weeks, one could possibly capture a moment when Gold would be seen to have traded down. Perhaps this is what the previous post meant.

The reason for this small volatility these few weeks is (mainly) that there is some uncertainty as to how the Feds and the BoE would manage interest rates ( and therefore affecting the US $ and £ ). This in turn will affect Gold. Generally , if rates were to increase again, capital flows will happen from Gold to Currency.

It's what my former corporate investor job would call a "housekeeping" move. So not an immediate effect on the SP but all good for the longer term. Some overheads will be rationalised and this will trickle down to the Group's bottom line

Fully agree with SOG. Having worked in a particular sector in Engineering before moving into Finance ( both industries having similar audit procedures for compliance) , the issue is just "ploughing through" the records ( hopefully there) and paperwork, collating them and sending them on. If there are missing bits, then it is a matter of asking for and discussing about an extension with the relevant monitoring agency.

A quick google and my (limited) interpretation of what is meant by "non-clinical data", suggests that this is a procedural issue that just requires clarification, or at the most, I suspect, an appointment of an accredited laboratory to oversee the process of experimental data collection.
As I said, it is my interpretation of what I read from the UK GLP Monitoring Authority's webpage.
The "hiccup" is deemed reasonably significant to warrant a RNS by the company's Market Advisors. I don't think it was engineered by the MMs but nevertheless, it is probable that such news is being exploited to add some downwards pressure on the stock price.

You are right there. Built into the affordability test when one applies for a mortgage is a certain level of safety margin. Most banks would have budgeted for a 0.5% increase as a minimum

I think Tornadotony based his opinion on only Tech Analysis of "support lines". They are just indicators and are what buy and selling peak intensities were at some price-points. And these price-points are usually, because of their intense trading volumes, probably the MMs and funds at play. Sometimes, no relation to real economic going-ons in the company itself and more to do with profit-taking (artificially set) objectives by the larger traders

Is VE a divi -player ? Because the ex div date will be announced soon, I think.

CobraD.... I share the same thoughts too. Just as people who dont argue rationally , while pulling down this share, more harm than good is done in the long run. Psychologically, the person who shouts the loudest in the room, gets the attention ( of at least someone). But the wise ones, just take a deep breath and assess the situation.

it is just arithmetic.... 3.2 p is 151 p....

By and large, in a simple "agency" relationship, you are correct to assume that PH would be on a commission basis. In reality, some bigger brokers, would be savvy enough to have some fixed fee component in money raising exercises, to cover a portion of their overheads. This is allowed by the FCA.

BUT, critically, PH and big brokers will be more strategic in their outlook. The step of attracting long term large investors is part of the initial game strategy. Their ultimate is to derive that BIG windfall in a year's or so , time. This is where their goals become aligned with that of the Management of SAR. This is when they shall reap the bigger reward.

I managed an AIM company and was at C suite for a main board listed one , in a key stock market, overseas.

The "maths" behind consolidation would say that it is a zero sum game for all current shareholders. Afterall, it is just an exercise to say that they wish to wrap up X numbers of our shares into one. So if the shares were 5p each, at consol, we will swap 10 of ours for one new share at 50p each. The aggregate value remains the same. We owned 50 p worth of shares, and we now own 50 p, except it is one share.

Where value is lost ( or perceived to be ) comes in the form of 3 main things. 2 of which , are I would say , administrative costs and the other on a "de-risking entry" by a new major shareholder. Regarding the administrative costs, 2 ways that value will leak. One is for the consol exercise itself. The NOMAD and the broker/s ' fees will be high and management time will be taken up. The other admin issue, concerns how "orphaned" shares are treated and how they are going to be managed. Imagine the situation where one has 333 shares. And the 10 for 1 consol offer is made. So one will get 33 new shares, with 3 "orphans" remaining. It will be interesting to see how these will be proposed to be converted / consol'd..... There are a couple of ways but it will come at a cost. Over 3 shares, you may say negligible. But over many cases....

The 3rd value leakage is how the next major investor/ s are being brought in, post -consol. This will be a major valuation exercise in itself. Tricky one , as the company 's business and assets are not easy to put an exact price on, or one that "all stakeholders" may agree. That's where the major leakage potentially happens. The issue is, who will bear the costs? The small long-suffering shareholders, the company or the new investor/s.

As the author of this thread mentioned, on AIM because of how info flows and how it is regulated , most times, it is the long -suffering shareholders who may bear the brunt.

For the chairman to tweet / post this yesterday, I would say something good is looming.

Just wondered if any shareholder can attend the AGM (physically) in London? Anyone thinking of going ?

I looked at the 2021 Annual Report. Net debt is circa £900m. Weighted average interest rate us 2.47 %, down from previous year. And as reported by the CFO, 100% of the rates are capped. The prognosis for the risk in increasing interest rate detrimental impact on earnings, is I believe, very low.