Member Info for glenmere

Yes I am up too. But not as much you are, dollar-wise , as I have a smaller holding. Have been with GGP for almost 3 years now.

Just a little academic grounding on the merits of Dual vs Cross Listings :

[Fndings on Cross Listings] ... suggest that cross-listings on Anglo-Saxon exchanges create more value than on other exchanges. They also highlight the incomplete understanding of why firms cross-list outside the UK and the United States, as many of the arguments discussed above (enhanced liquidity, improved disclosure, and bonding) do not apply. In this respect, Sarkissian and Schill (2014) show that cross-listing activity in a given host country coincides with the outperformance of host and proximate home country's economies and financial markets, thus, highlighting the market timing component in cross-listing decisions. {Source : Wikipedia}

Edit * divested

Selling -off stakes in JVs and terminating tortuous partnerships isn't bad, as long as there is a good narrative behind this. For example, a tortuous partnership in an unfriendly country with its government looking to extract much from the foreign partner, isn't a long term benefit. It helped with the short term biz strategy of testing footprints in new territories , but once results are in, it is sometimes good to back away.

Once a JV is diverted, its immediate contribution when the shares were sold at a premium, used either to pay down debt, or to improve shareholders returns; and the long term overhead cost reductions are validated, it will as you said, put positive pressure on the SP.

Selling -off stakes in JVs and terminating tortuous partnerships isn't bad, as long as there is a good narrative behind this. For example, a tortuous partnership in an unfriendly country with its government looking to extract much from the foreign partner, isn't a long term benefit. It helped with the short term biz strategy of testing footprints in new territories , but once results are in, it is sometimes good to back

Happy new year too !

Hopefully a revolution, rather than just an evolution for GGP

LSE has published a summary of the Budget. Some plus and minus implications on MARS but generally, I hazard a guess, slightly positive for MARS whose SP is pretty much going to be steered by stuff at the macro-level like Business Rates and Consumer Confidence. At the micro-level, it is staff costs and things like alcohol and beverage duties.

As follows:

She confirmed a GBP25 billion raid on employers' national insurance contributions, with higher rates and a lower starting threshold.

The rate will increase by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025, with payments starting when an employee earns GBP5,000, down from the current GBP9,100.

"I know that this is a difficult choice. I do not take this decision lightly," Reeves said.

The chancellor announced a GBP2.5 billion increase in capital gains tax by increasing the lower rate from 10% to 18% and the higher rate from 20% to 24%.

She also confirmed changes to inheritance tax, including bringing pension pots within the tax from April 2027, and reforms to agricultural and business property reliefs, raising a total of GBP2 billion a year.

The Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast suggested gross domestic product growth will be higher in 2024 than expected in March – upgrading it from 0.8% to 1.1% and from 1.9% to 2.0% in 2025.

But there are downgrades in subsequent years – down from an expected 2% in 2026 to 1.8%, from 1.8% in 2027 to 1.5% and from 1.7% in 2028 to 1.5%.

In other measures:

– The freeze on fuel duty will continue, including maintaining the existing 5p cut.

– A flat rate of duty will be applied on all vaping liquid from October 2026 alongside an additional one-off increase in tobacco duty to encourage people to give up smoking.

– The soft drinks industry levy will be increased to account for inflation.

– While alcohol duty rates on non-draught products will increase in line with RPI inflation, draught duty will be cut by 1.7%, knocking a penny off a pint in the pub.

By David Hughes, PA Political Editor

source: PA

I think patience is the operative word here. I just topped up this morning at below 39.5 .... It has crept up a little and so has some of the other main board shares I own. The "impact" on big business and consumers hasn't quite happen, despite the earlier noises made by Labour.

On the broader front, the beta ( past 5 months ) of MARS is quite high at 1.68.... Meaning to say , in simplistic terms, it has almost twice the volatility of the stock market ( the FTSE). Whatever the FTSE does, it will amplify movements in the SP of this stock. ATM, the FTSE is meandering ( trading) in a lacklustre way , eg the FTSE 100 is in a narrow band between 8000 - 8400 over the past 6 months.... Too many crises happening in the wider world. MARS at a beta of 1.68 basically amplifies the up and down sentiment of the wider stock market

True ... the eternal tussle of debt holders vs equity holders ..

Yes NAV > 2x current SP - great

But what will drive SP growth would be a future dividend profile. And it appears there wasn"t any discussion on the investor slides. Could be the level of net debt at the moment and possibly the Board's focus on reducing that further

I read Mandarin Chinese... the chinese phrase that you cut and paste (?) ... basically just says " I am sorry, I made an error in my previous statement , I was just referring to a green frog ..."

This is a key point that most Acquirors in any M&A transaction, would say. The issue is if we the LTH, can see the value of controlljng 100% of the mines ( strategic) and if the mines will be adding to top line soon ( accretive).

The SP will rise , only question remains is does Management have the wherewithal to execute successfully? Does SD and the BOD have what it takes?

Totally in agreement. Prior to the Quarterly Results, I made a commentary that with the then anticipated good news of recovery and improvement, the SP would still trade +/- 5% of £ 1.83. The market is not perfect ( ! ) and the analysts and MMs out there would have already sussed out the imminent good news for the results , from looking at other operational public domain data ( eg load capacities, flight bookings etc). These people would have already factored in the rise in SP from the £ 1.50s to the £ 1.85 plus that we see now.

The thing that the market would have waited for and which in theory would be kept " super-secret" amongst the BoD and the C- suites in IAG , is the prospect of dividends resuming. The mere announcement of a dividend in the near future would send the SP on a spike, the so-called " Alpha" performance of this stock. The driver that would make the SP go above £ 1.85, significantly. But then , as I said earlier , the top end of the recent analysts' predictions for the IAG SP range, would still be about £ 2.20, even with a dividend resumption.

FTSE 100 constituent stocks are bought in by institutions for their dividend yield. At least , historically. So someone like IAG , when it halts or doesn't indicate when it is going to payout a divi, will automatically face a downgrade in SP as a result of the anticipated yield decreasing. So even if quarterly results are looking good as in the case of IAG, the "extra cap return" depends if the BoD is going to make some noises about divi. Which means that if say Earnings suggest a 5% improvement over same period last year, expect the SP to re-rate around this magnitude. BUT if the BoD makes a noise about divi, it will jump to the higher end of the analysts' forecasts that we have been seeing in the past few months ( ie 220 or so).

Apologies in advance if this is a repeat. This was published yesterday. The mid section of the article gives several options for Shaun Day. And usefully, an assessment of which are likely / feasible.

Happy investing , all !

https://www.share-talk.com/greatland-gold-aimggp-choices-choices-newmont-has-finally-made-a-decision/

Yes on NASDAQ.

Former CEO of Sierra Oncology. He already knew SAR from a few years ago.

Hopefully it reaches the support levels, before X'mas , at the 25 + p which were the "shoulders" pre - and post- Ukraine conflict.

I see 2 " small " wins here. The ASX listing's rationale was to improve liquidity and to bring in additional funds. This will come at a cost to existing shareholders ( meaning those LTH here). Greatland seems to have persuaded Wyloo to step into the funding gap ( albeit, I stress is only a projected one , as it has current high cash reserves). This is great, as it shows that one of its "cornerstone shareholders" believes in the future and more importantly would have received more detailed briefings and therefore enhanced its confidence about the company's forecasts. Also important is that fact that in the terms of the standby facility, there is no convertibility. This is good for the other LTH here. It effectively means no dilution.

I may have mentioned this sometime ago. Likely a licensing deal as opposed to an outright sale . This particular "win" for SAR is a small one ( albeit significant). Any management , worth their salt, would not sell out , at the upcoming opportunity. Licence is the way and maybe a "ring-fenced" one.... so that other developmental opportunities with other prospective licensees are not missed.

Because of the likelihood of a ring-fenced licensing deal, the payout implications for SAR would be in the form of an "income stream" with perhaps a lump sum upfront. This is good for cash management . As for impact on Share Price, we will see a good rise but not a "windfall multiple" .