Further thoughts23 Nov 2021 13:36
So, I'm obviously disappointed by the SP's performance over the last day/week/month. Calling the bottom is proving tricky, but 3.1p has seen some support, at least today. I'm no chartist, but 2.4p might prove to be the absolute bottom, based on my armchair knowledge of charts/trends. Happy to be corrected by those who understand such things better.
I am interested, however, in trying to find the rationale for the latest assault on the SP. Perhaps a good place to start is to examine what caused the rise in the first place?
1) The Covid play. People jumping on any bandwagon that happened to mention Covid/a solution to the misery. Brighty is the expert on that. But it's strange that, since the July 1st RNS which highlighted our superiority to dexamethasone, we've really heard nothing in this regard, which leads one to assume we've been "beaten to the punch by the big boys" (e.g. Pfizer/ AstraZeneca), hence the fall. For me, the jury is still out on that, but could we possibly get a move on?
2) The HNWIs investing certainly helped, giving retail investors confidence to "follow the money". So have they sold out? Somehow, I doubt it. Investors tend to play the long game. Traders - city wide boys - play the short game, and they are making hay, currently. But volume is the key to understanding the game. Large daily volume (I'm talking 30% of shares in issue) will move the price, no doubt. But, it seems to me that the last few days/weeks have been driven by volumes nowhere near that (1% to 2%, if you're lucky). So what? This screams, then, of manipulation, which brings me to point #3.
3) The appointment of PH has coincided with a massive drop in the SP and an apparent loss of confidence. Surely the reverse should have been true? 'Heavy hitting broker joins the Sareum juggernaut', and suddenly we're derailed? It just doesn't add up, unless we're in play. PH's mates want in, therefore drop the price. Another HNWI is willing to bet big, but only at the right price. Dump the price, screw the LTHs (since they're up big time, thank you very much), flush out the weak hands. I don't know, but something feels wrong. There's a nasty smell, and it ain't emanating from my direction, I promise! Anyway, I urge people to see the wood for the trees. I ain't selling because I've always seen the potential re: the science. I'm an investor, not a trader. What are you?
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