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I'd revisit your calcs Alde - all well and good doing back of a f@g packet calculation but you need to have correct inputs!

A quick AI query suggest that the cost of production of Kymriah (that you are basing your calcs off) is far less than you suggest - between $50-75k per patient

'The exact cost to manufacture Kymriah is not public, but studies suggest the variable cost per production is around $46,397 in a highly automated setup, while one academic analysis estimated total production cost could be up to $78,849 per dose at maximum capacity for a single machine. Factors like personnel, equipment, clean rooms, and production materials contribute to the high manufacturing costs.

Variable cost per production: Around $46,397 per production in an automated clean room setting.

Total cost at maximum capacity: Approximately $78,849 per product in an automated setup with one machine.

Factors influencing cost: Key components include personnel salaries, equipment, clean room facilities, and production materials.

Cost reduction: The per-production cost could drop to about $59,905 if three machines are installed. Using a cheaper lentivirus alternative could further reduce the cost to around $44,309.

The fat jab effect: there’s money to be made in biotech

And as patents expire, expect smaller companies to be snapped up in a flurry of buy-outs and mergers.

If you were to peruse the investment performance figures for last month you wouldn’t need a master’s in data analysis to notice a trend. Biotechnology — the sector of companies that develop drugs and medicines using biology — is doing very well. Half of the top ten performing funds in October are specialist biotech funds, the top performing sector is healthcare and, in the investment trust world, the best returns have come from biotechnology and healthcare trusts. One significant factor is a forthcoming “patent cliff edge” — the biggest the sector has ever seen.

Long story short, most big pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies currently get a hefty portion of their revenue from products where the patents are due to expire in the next eight years.

According to Powell, more than £200 billion of revenue comes from drugs that will come off patent between now and 2033. Once these products face general competition, prices can drop by as much as 90 per cent. This means that the big names need to bolster their pipeline and the easiest way is to license the work of smaller biotech companies, or simply buy the company itself.

This is good news for small to medium-sized biotech firms and their investors. There could well be more money to be made. Geoff Hsu from the specialist healthcare investment firm OrbiMed said: “Investors can definitely expect more growth going forward as mergers and acquisitions continue, innovation continues to produce novel drugs, the regulatory environment continues a favourable stance and sector valuations recover back to historical norms.” Oneexample is a new cell therapy used on patients with multiple myeloma — a blood cancer where the patient has a liquid tumour. The therapy takes a sample from the patient, modifies the cells and then puts it back into the patient to target the disease. Powell said: “You’re seeing innovation across the board. The only other market that has done anything like the same revenue numbers as weight-loss jabs was Botox. And we’re seeing a lot of excitement in new areas, from oncology to neurological conditions. “These things tend to go in waves of innovation and there are sudden leaps thanks to new technology. Ultimately, the sector is driven by these individual success stories.”

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