Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Think you are projecting again. My opinion, as I've stated, is that the 2w trial results will be the next touch point. Any subsequent bigger news will only come following that. The examples of Alpine Immunity just demonstrate that there can be vacuums of doubt and despair before such turns.
Anything is possible thorn. I'd expect the usual dynamics to kick in well before then and all those sitting on the side-lines waiting for the low are likely to pile in.
This quarter's payment will be in the 40's. Why entertain such a scenario? 😂
Let's put it like this, if it gets to 10p then anyone with any dry powder left over is going to do very well indeed.
That's one possible scenario out of many wyndrum.
Let's revisit the case of Alpine Immune Science.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/4uyLkwXa/?symbol=NYSE%3ANIO
From Aug 23 to Nov 23, the share price dropped 44%. Why did it do that? What didn't the market know about the upcoming deal, what were all the doubts swirling around at the time to push it down? No doubt there were hoards of naysayers taking the opportunity to talk the prospect down and capitalise. Then, out of the blue, in Nov the price just started to rocket. It continued to ascend for 5 months and a left orbit earlier this month when the takeover was announced. Did everyone know about the takeover six months in advance? Will the next price rise that avacta enjoys also indicate a takeover in 6 months? Does the market know anything at all?
"The assumption is 2WD will be better for outcomes. But will it?"
"The implication is either this is not quite the breakthrough in cancer care we all think, or it is still has the potential to fail"
The 3w trial has already demonstrated the delivery mechanism, so "has it got the potential to fail"? Absolutely not. Between the results of the last phase and the new 2w trial, the pharmacokinetics of precision will be the same in terms of delivery, but could yield better response rates. Even if precision with dox doesn't have a 100% response rate, the mechanism is proven, and any number of more potent warheads could be strapped to it. So does it have the potential to fail - no, as it has in many respects already succeeded.
Another possibility, given the comments that have been made along the way by AS, that there were a few approaches by some minnows that wanted to take a punt with precision, but either were chancers trying to take advantage of Avacta's cash situation, or genuinely didn't have the funds to stump up decent cash upfront. If this were the case then it's only a good thing they are declined.
Anyway, we should get a pretty good idea of how this really works when targeted and dosed more frequently, once the ongoing trial 2w results are released (let's not forget patients are being dosed as we speak!). This for me could be the pivotal decision point for anyone following the actual trial results, be it PI's or BP.
Wyndrum is focusing on one hypothetical scenario. By all means take it on board, but it's just one of many.
BV, thanks for elaborating your point. If it's validation that BP is looking for then this could come in a few forms:
- A license deal or two (as you say)
- A nod from the FDA
- Overwhelmingly positive results coming out of the 2w trial or early P2 trial results
BV are you the most elaborate wyndrum sleeper account yet? BP is not a single entity, they don’t sit around a table and agree that they’ll all hold off until Avacta are desperate for cash before carving up Avacta like some some kind of composite pharma man. Your posts have become increasingly unhinged of late.
My point is that if anyone is interested in the platform they’re not going to wait for Avacta to be pulling in 100mn in sales before making a move as Avactas position will just become stronger.
So before further dilutive funding is needed, either we get a license deal, we get taken over, or failing that would this just indicate this isn’t of any interest to anyone, and so dilutive funding is the least of our worries.
Not only that, but it was nosediving from august 23 all the way to the end of october, no doubt with its own grim reaper squad chanting "death spiral, death spiral" throughout. It then doubled in 2 weeks and doubled again in 8 weeks. A cautionary tale for anyone subscribing to our resident doom mungers.
You stated:
"CLNs need buying volume and news to sustain buying pressure to counter the constant downward pressure on the share price."
Let's assume 45p for the share price, given it's likely the rns will be monday/tuesday next week, and that the price is taken as a 10% discount of the vwap of preceding days. The upcoming payment will look something like the following:
| Coupon Payment (£M) | Amortization Payment (£M) | Cumulative Repayment (£M) | Total Shares (M) | Dilution (%) | Cumulative Shares (M) | Cumulative Dilution (%) | Balance (£M) | Share price |
| 0.62 | 1.9 | 2.52 | 5.59 | 1.57 | 5.59 | 1.57 | 36.1 | 0.45 |
That's a dilution of 1.57% this quarter and 5.59m shares over roughly 65 trading days until the next quarterly payment. That is an average of 84,600 share per day that needs to be absorbed. Since we dropped to 50p we have on average traded around 4m shares per day, so that represents an additional 2% shares per day that need to be absorbed. It's the kind of transaction that sheppy eats for breakfast.
It's 3 months then until the next quarter, say around July 22nd, at which point the 2w results are likely to be coming into view, so that 84000 shares per day just becomes insignificant.
On top of this we have just had GSA capital open a short position, so there's 1.75m shares of buying pressure that need to be closed right there ;)
i ran the numbers to get a better understanding of the impact, no prompting from anyone. as we saw, they're really not that bad given all the reasons i mentioned; in particular:
- the worst payments have been
- the ever reducing principal and interest payments
- the fact that it is still spread over 3.5 years
- the heavy weighting to the final payment in 3.5 years
there's going to be no sudden and catastrophic dilution event.
when you couple that with the fact that there is now 44m in the bank and so there will be no other source of dilution for the foreseeable - we're good.
you can sit on the side-lines and await events, that's everyone's prerogative, however i'm sure you'll openly admit that you don't have the foggiest what events are inbound and when ;) wyndrum keeps trying to tell us he has a crystal ball, but admit it, you have no idea, any of you, which makes all of what you say completely hypothetical. for example, you might wake up one day to some event and the price is up 500%, or we might go 4 quarters with no news with the share price on its ****. hint, it'll be somewhere between the two.
what i do know however, was that the p1a results were brilliant, and reading between the lines and applying some basic logic about the chemistry involved here, the 2w results are likely to be an improvement on these, so we may not have to wait as long as you think for one of those events.
so, hc shares will undoubtedly apply downward pressure, but not that much. on the other hand, stonking 2w results, which are not that far away, could apply far more upwards pressure. it's for everyone to work out when the best time to be in our out is, however, so long as we have this singular focus from your crew, then it's important to keep raising awareness of the upside to this proposition, for balance.
"All we have is what has actually happened before as a reference."
Including the p1a results, which are as good as I could have hoped for given the patient cohorts. All success criteria of the p1a phase ticked off, with a Brucey bonus of observed efficacy in a group of patients that were never anticipated respond positively to the treatment.
I look back at that very recent event, satisfied. Now I look forward to the Q2W, which it's hard to see how these won't be even better given the treated cohorts are going to be more targeted (the last we heard) and the dosing more frequent.