Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It's looking like the SP is struggling to get back above the support line that Zak Mir pointed out. Would it be sensible wyndrum, to take a bit off the table, just to hedge against the possibility of a 10-15% drop from here that you have suggested?
So let's get this straight please wyndrum and aldebaran, is the share price going to rise from here? Does this mean we're well and truly out of the death spiral scenario, and Alan Smith is competent once again. I was under the impression that we need to dislodge him. How does this work - last week we needed to get him ousted with pitch forks?
Thorn - help me out here?
95% of all gaps are filled, plus remember the convertible bond death spiral that Thornogson kept going on about, that will definitely drag us down to 20p.
Isn't that right Thorn?
Over the coming months there's going to be massive dilution and it will provide downward pressure all the way down to 20p, maybe beyond?
The mechanisms employed, namely the conversion bond and raising exclusively with II’s at a huge discount (bar throwing a bone to long termers) supports that argument that they are reshaping the register. However, I don’t necessarily buy this given some of the “diamond handed” II’s that we saw participated. In addition, we’ve not seen a single tr1.
Nevertheless, this is still bargain territory and whatever the ultimate reasons for the raise, buying down here is still better than buying up at 160 by a factor of 4.
This time, PL75, the goal has been brought to Alan. The ball has been placed on a tuft of grass, and all he needs to do is swing a big left foot with enough precision to make contact with the ball. Then we score. What could possibly go wrong?
It helps to set the context to understand the perseverance required to succeed in this industry. Avacta have many talented people no doubt, but they are not immune to the statistical reality. That they have failed to see through a number of ventures to date is not unusual.
Precision hopefully is different and will represent the breakthrough venture that Avacta desperately needs. Not sure where they would go from a failed precision trial tbh.
Many drugs are flogged through trials on the promise of very marginal improvements over current treatments and yet we are seeing the precision trial is already yielding some pretty top end results. Now it is funded, I'm more confident that finally they can see this through through to commercialisation.
The success rate for life science companies is apparently lower than 10%, so statistically speaking it's a really tough market to make it in. Not only does the science need to stack up, on top of that there is the added hurdle of the brown paper bag protocol, which if required, and management not familiar with, results in lft type failures.
Based on those statistics it could take a long time for a biotech to make it. Our CEO has stated he's confident of a greater than 50% success rate for precision... I guess you have to look at the trial progress to date and make up your mind whether you believe what is put in front you. Hopefully the board will ensure that the task of navigating the second part, of navigating the commercials, is in the hands of the right people with the necessary experience.