ADVFN 8-12.5p per share14 Nov 2017 08:12
This is the most useful post by Andrea: "Nope , an LTH (8 years). I personally think that SOMETHING will come of it (either Toral or Lago), but obviously don't know what. 8p per share was 1% of 8.7m tonnes of Zn/Pb in the ground, divided by 4bn shares in issue (which is a forward estimate before funding) , and it still is. Just gives an idea of what it COULD b worth, before funding. Dusnt mean to say it will get there. We don't yet have sufficient data to produce an NPV or DCF valuation for the potential mine, so it's the best guess we have of potential Toral value, currently. Another way to look at it , wud b to take the 8.7m tons we know exists @ Toral, multiply by economic profit of $1500/tonne ($3000 Zn price minus $1500 /tonne av production cost), then divide by a 10 year mine life (say) & finally by 4bn shares in issue before funding. That produces a profit per share, per annum of 25p per share. Divide that by 2 for a 50:50 JV 9to fund and develope the mine) and it's still 12.5p profit, per share, per annum, over an initial 10 year mine life. My own view is that the current Management team will need strengthening (a lot) if it is to be taken into production, with at least one successful mining engineer appointed to the BOD. I'm also not sure that JT is the right person to take FCR through to being a fully-listed UK Plc, from his performance, to date, but he is OK until we get past the Scoping Study, which is underway now. As regards a strategic plan, I think that there IS one, but JT just needs to communicate that to shareholders via their rather useless PR Dept, led by Larry the Lamb. After all of that, it's down to good luck - like most things on AIM. (all of the above figures are my own estimates, not those of the Company, or it's Brokers). IMHO. DYOR. GLA." We now know the placing shares, and you can bet the options for Bird and the Broker will be exercised - so the guesstimate is pretty good. We expect the JORC 2012 to be rock solid - there is a question posed by Andrea on the III board - but there is no real reason to worry about it IMO and I expect someone will pose the question to Myles and Laurence. If the assumptions are rechecked on Toral and Lago - then what asset value is there likely to be - and how does this relate to share price? In terms of getting solid management on board - they just did - and I expect the asset to be seen for what it is - very valuable. The market will catch up soon.
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