Member Info for gilo

So why would he be buying if he thought it was going down?

Warren Irwin
@ItsWarrenIrwin
·
1h
Replying to
@DarrenG54668014

@philippkopfli
and 7 others
Waiting for a takeover is one of the most frustrating and painful parts of the investment process. I remember once getting fed up waiting for a a sale of Caracal Oil and selling 2 weeks before the takeover. I left 10 million dollars in the table for my impatience.

Capital Limited (CAPD-LSE | BUY, TP 145p): CAPD 1Q23 trading update. Total 1Q23 revenue of ~US$78m was in line with our expectations on a half-year run rate basis (CGe 1H23: ~US$156m). CAPD reported average utilised rigs of 95, in-line with our estimates (CGe: 95) as higher utilisation of 77% (CGe: 73%) offset a lower total rig count than expected (123 closing, v CGe: 132). The rig count declined due to timing differences between decommissioning and incoming replacement rigs. The company has guided that its fleet should be in line with end-2022 levels (~130 rigs). ARPOR of US$192k was slightly higher than our expectations (CGe: US$181k) as the company’s fleet repositioning strategy continues to target higher value contracts. Numbers updated for the trading update (including a smaller fleet for FY23, offset by higher ARPOR/utilisation), minimal impact on revenue/EBITDA in FY23 (~1%), while the impact from 2024 (as a result of a smaller drilling fleet carried forward) is -4%.

Oil & Mining Services
Capital Limited (CAPD-LSE | BUY, TP 145): Raising target price to 145p. Capital has released its FY22 results. Revenue of ~US$290m was released previously in the 4Q22 trading update. ~28% revenue growth on FY21, key driver continuing to be strength in the drilling segment. Adj-EBITDA of ~US$86m slightly below our estimates (CGe: ~US$87m), implying a margin of ~30% and representing a slight moderation from the FY21 high-water mark of 32%. NPAT of US$22.7m was in line (CGe: ~US$22.2m), and led to EPS of ~11 US$cps (CGe: 10.5 US $cps). Lower cash capex (vs our numbers) left the company with a net debt position of ~US$47m (CGe: ~US$51m). Leverage for the company remains slightly below industry peers (CAPD: ~0.5, peers: ~0.8x), providing us with confidence that the company should be able to continue its strong growth plans in the drilling and mining segments (the labs business is less capital intensive). Finally, the company announced a final dividend of 2.6 US$cps (FY22 total dividend of 3.9 US$cps), ahead of our expectations (CGe: 1.5 final, 2.8 total). Looking ahead, the company has guided for US$320-340m, in line with our prior FY23 estimate of ~US$328m (now ~US$326m). We have lowered our revenue assumption for MSALABS in FY23E to ~US$50m (top of segment guidance), partially offset by a higher assumption for rig additions to 12 (from 8) in FY23E (in line with the quality contract wins announced). The larger fleet has increased FY24E EBITDA by ~1% and we increase our target price slightly to 145p (from 140p).

So from todays rns bhp are 12% down to 10% so has that gone to the chinese or is this some other weird mechanism I don't understand

hmm how confusing, are cassidy good?

https://www.alwahafund.com/

wicked. I'll be glad to put an end to this thing so everyone on this board stops arguing. I've never seen anything like it.

Do we like them?

I really should know this but who are the competing people trying to buy up solg? Is Jiangxi Copper acting on their own or are they buddies with Maxit captial? And is it them vs bhp newcrest? Who are not on our side..

Yea i can only think it's buy the rumor sell the news. But if you're taking a buffet view of buy the business the business looks good.

Capital Limited (CAPD-LSE | BUY, TP 140p): CAPD announced new drilling contract with existing customer, B2Gold, lasting until the end of 2024. The company will purchase an additional 10 drilling rigs to service the contract. Capex guidance for the year has been increased by $10m as a result to US$60-65m. Revenue guidance for CY remains unchanged at US$280-290m, and the company expects a strong contribution from the contract in 2023 and 2024. CAPD now expects to end the year with a rig count of ~130 rigs, compared to CG est ~122 in 2022 with the addition of 5 over the course of 2023. We estimate new contract could represent an uplift of ~US$8-16m in revenue contribution. Stock trading on a 2023E EV/EBITDA of ~2.1x and a (pre-debt) 2023E FCF yield of ~22%, analyst argues stock is significantly mispriced.

Capital Limited ( the old Capital Drilling) (CAPD-LSE | BUY TP 140p): ALS Ltd (ALQ-ASX | Not Rated) READ ACROSS - ALS provided guidance for 1HFY23 NPAT of ~24-28% above corresponding period from FY22. Read across is positive for sample volumes in Capital's laboratories business. ALS said that "The trend of testing for battery related metals, such copper, nickel, lithium, and cobalt, continued throughout the year, and we expect this to continue going forward as society progresses its' sustainability agenda."

this is fascinating. My dad really hated Strukov. This other bloke seems a bit more high profile but seemingly not an obvious crim.

This does seem to be a case where someone is determined to sell whatever the price and the market makers just can't find buyers. Buy when others are fearful is the saying but few rarely do it. People will buy on some sort of resolution.

Interesting rns over here. https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=EUA&share=Eurasia-Mining making a stand.

poly seems to have found a bottom so we can too, must just be a seller.

faaaak someone really is selling out

The 6p fight back continues

yea 6p seems to be the battlefront