Member Info for gilo

I bought some the other day on the basis that the buybacks and the business being quite recession proof imo. Seems like mgmt know what they're doing too.

The big thing with horizonte was the management had never run a mine before. I'm specifically invested here because of the quality of the management. I just think to get that higher valuation we need to be a multi-mine operation

I've bought a few mtl today, i've been mulling over the risk reward for a while but the crux interview convinced me. Interesting price action..

There was a very good summary on stockopedia. Not sure if it's deemed good practise to repost here but this is a bit from the end:-

"

However, my feeling is that Jamie Boyton’s return to full-time executive leadership at Capital is probably a good thing.

My sums also suggest that unless this business is really coming unravelled – which I see no reason to believe – then the shares could be starting to offer some value.

The company’s net profit figures can be distorted by gains and losses on its investment portfolio, so I prefer to rely on operating profit as a measure of underlying business performance:

The lowest operating margin reported since 2018 is 12.8%

Applying this to the mid-point of today’s 2025 revenue guidance suggests FY25 op profit of c.£31m

This gives Capital shares a possible EBIT/EV yield of 14% – potentially good value

I would emphasise that in my opinion, there’s still considerable uncertainty about the outlook for 2025.

The old stock market adage is that profit warnings tend to come in threes. Our research has found that companies which downgrade expectations often do underperform for a while.

While neither January’s update nor today’s have explicitly cut profit guidance, my view is that they can both be considered profit warnings"

I'm going to wait for the actual results.

Are mtl hedged at a specific gold price?

Just watching the crux vid, they are so good, definitely talking about the sketchiness. I'm wondering if anyone subsribes to their analysts notes service.

I've got a spreadsheet of country risk that I use:-

0.33 NIC

0.58 Phili

So nic is considered pretty damn dodgy. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-19735631

Tam "2024 was not the best of years for Capital by their own high standard reflecting probably a steeper than expected decline in mining and services before the new focus and projects in North America took hold. Nevertheless for anyone watching the geopolitical changes in West Africa the company’s strategy taken 2yrs ago to diversify into NA now looks extremely prescient. The sale of the stake in Predictive Discovery has bolstered the balance sheet which we believe will come in with a net debt position of $42m (including investments) when announced allowing the company to push further into the US and new business areas. Capital’s shares are trading on PER multiples of 6.2x and 7.3x on our earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 respectively, EV/EBITDA multiples of 2.6x and 2.6x and a FCF yield of 9% and 15%. The dividend is also yielding 3.9%. We continue to believe a rerating should start to emerge as the company increases its presence in North America particularly if associated with another high quality customer. "

Yep the sp is slowly creeping up again for the last month. These funds and buying in and just sitting. Fingers crossed next year = rerate

Hmm bugger seems like you can't claim against it https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/negligible-value-claims-and-income-tax-losses-on-disposals-of-shares-you-have-subscribed-for-in-qualifying-trading-companies-hs286-self-assessment-he/hs286-negligible-value-claims-and-income-tax-losses-on-disposals-of-shares-you-have-subscribed-for-in-qualifying-trading-companies-2023

The shares aren't listed in my account and I don't remember selling them. I'm with ii. Will I at least be able to use the loss against future capital gains?

Well done to everyone for holding firm. I bought some more because I do read this as positive news.

IC view is that revenue growth comes from acquisitions, is that a problem...

Yep i've been buying some as it's come back, thought i'd missed my op when it went over 150

anto***asta - downgrade to hold, raising tp to 2,065p (from 1,925p) – stock trades on 1.4x nav, and we downgrade on valuation.

atalaya - raising tp to 580p (from 530p), maintain buy – lower fy24 production (51.1kt v 53.6 kt previously), offset by rolled fwd valuation date.

central asia metals - raising tp to 215p (from 180p), maintain hold - we have changed our caml valuation methodology to align with the other mining stocks we cover and now use 50/50 0.9x p/nav and 5x ev/ebitda.

jubilee – maintain 10p tp and buy - lower fy24 copper production to 3.25kt (from 5.5kt), while stronger expectations for chrome in 2hfy24 offset the impact.

taseko - raising tp to 275p/c$4.65 (from 235p/c$4.05)- not reported yet, rolled forward valuation date.

Https://twitter.com/DonDurrett/status/1780029632982741374

Hmm, i was thinking that lawyers would do well in a recession, dealing with everyones bankruptcies

Hxxps://www.youtube.com/live/20ZsEzbw7Rs?si=6qIQkVms6ce6vvb7&t=1057

Hxxps://youtu.be/vSUrlXdqmCg?si=dtZOqTus7NVPtCNj&t=962

Much less buzz than atym but has more reserves and is bringing a second mine on stream. I saw it in this youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGhcduxKKWE and was thinking of buying some but put off by some director sales.