Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/petrofac-wins-uk-offshore-project-feed/2-1-1371758
Media info suggests that Jordan Petroleum is currently in negotiation for award with a consortium that doesn't include Petrofac for the estimated US$2.6 billion refinery expansion project. Not sure whether this is one of the bids that Sami had indicated optimism in August! Petrofac consortium was one of the 3 bidders who submitted prices in Oct 21. Also not sure whether ongoing negotiations are final or whether negotiations will be held with the PFC consortium too.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/people/hundreds-of-workers-start-uk-north-sea-walkouts/2-1-1369980
Sami Iskandar commented on 11th Aug 22 - "Moving into the second half of 2022, a significant increase in bidding activity has put us firmly on the path to grow backlog over the full year". Group backlog as on 31/12/21 was US$4 billion and on 30/6/22 it was US$3.7 billion. Haven't seen any substantial order intake yet that would support Sami's statement! Lack of order intake in H2 of 2022 might also affect anticipated revenue growth in 2023.
The TU on 20/12 must provide some concrete data or information to reinforce the trust of the stakeholders regarding business sustainability, viability & profitability going into 2023. General statements like the usual "in line with expectations....." or "billions of dollars worth of bidding in the pipeline...." etc. etc. will not suffice!
A positive for PFC with Tareq Kawash moving from McDermott is that they might have a good chance to win the EPC contract for ADNOC's Fujairah LNG Export Terminal due to be awarded in 2023 at a cost US$2-3 billion+. Tareq is in charge of the FEED currently being carried out by McDermott. PFC could therefore perhaps bid alone or in consortium with McDermott! Also awaiting news for the Jordan Refinery expansion project where PFC has bid in consortium with a Chinese firm! Estimated value US$2 billion!
@AD66, frankly I expected Sami to hang around with PFC for much longer. He has a solid reputation in the market and from his results presentations in the past 2 years he really did sound genuinely optimistic about his plans for a revitalized PFC with his 3 pillars he used to keep repeating - Rebalance, Reshape & Rebuild! How much of each has he actually achieved during his 2 years? Not much I would think! So why the decision to go suddenly? Or was it that he was asked to go? There could be 3 major reasons - personal, internal to PFC or external to PFC! And again as you rightly said there could be plenty of reasons within each of the above factors! We probably will never know! Sami and Tareq are both respected individuals within the sector and both are very well known to Ayman Asfari from ages past! Ayman decided to "retire" only due to the SFO saga! He didn't have a choice probably! As the largest shareholder he no doubt still "holds and pulls the strings"! As I mentioned earlier the December Trading Update is key and might give us a peek into what lies ahead in the future for PFC! In any case what is most important is that profitable contracts are won regularly. Not necessarily very major ones in size or value. Rather medium ones that will be easier to manage. Also hope that the departure announcements of the CFO and CEO in successive years are not related to each other! If they are then things are not too bright I should think!
CEO being fluent in Arabic and having lived for 18 years in the ME are not enough reasons to win contracts for anyone! Clients in the ME still expect the best at the lowest price with some greasing of the palms perhaps! Tareq Kawash is moving from an EPC company that had plenty of licensed technologies to a company that has virtually none! Won't be easy for him to build on the success that he already had! Sami Iskandar is also fluent in Arabic in addition to French , English & Spanish and a previous track record even more impressive than Tareq! He threw in the towel after less than 2 years! Remember the "oohs & aahs" when Sami took over just 2 years ago? Let's wait until Tareq takes up the reins and settles down first! Wouldn't be fair to put added pressure on him right from the beginning although he will of course have to hit the ground running to pull PFC out of the present situation!
Major ADNOC contract news is imminent. On the giant Hail & Ghasha project, awards are expected on the 2 packages - Onshore & Offshore, each in excess of US$5 billion so total more than $10billion! Not sure whether PFC has submitted bids on both packages or not. Also whether bidding alone or in consortium with others. This is a re-tendered project. On the initial tender there were 5 packages and PFC had bid on 4 which included both onshore and offshore works. That was before the ADNOC ban due to SFO action.
Jordan refinery expansion project estimated at nearly US$3 billion is close to finalization and client is reportedly in talks with one of the bidders. Not sure whether the talks are with the bidding consortium which includes PFC.
"7bn bidding pipeline due for award in H2, 2022 but unrealistic to see all awarded but a significant amount - say, 66% - may be awarded"
- can be interpreted in more ways than one! The $7billion is obviously made up of multiple contracts whose individual estimated values are unknown to us at this time. 66% of that value means approximately $4.62billion to be awarded in H2 22. Again within that value we do not know how many contracts are included. Also is that value of contracts expected to be awarded exclusively to PFC or is it the value of contracts to be released into the market in general from those tendered by PFC? Sami goes onto say that on some bids it is down to PFC and one another bidder which means a 50:50 chance for PFC. We also do not know the values of those specific bids where it is between 2 bidders. In other words it is rather difficult to speculate on the total value of orders that PFC will win in H2. We will know for sure only when the actual awards are announced with values!
@lilo
Since PFC had earlier carried out the full scope of UZ 750 in consortium with Daewoo they should be in a good position to win the entire UZ 1000 project and not just a part! I reckon the main competition though will probably come from Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas who is understandably carrying out the FEED part of UZ 1000.