Member Info for ghhgdd

Please take this feedback positively, coming from someone who has been there - saying things like "Oil up and geopolitical uncertainty WILL continue a steady rise past 50p today" is a route to disaster. One cannot afford to be that confident when it comes to trading, as it reduces clarity and introduces emotion. Train your brain to say "the share price MAY do this or that" instead and you'll be much better off.

Not to mention being so certain and then so wrong reduces credibility...

You're quite right, my apologies!

That's that for now then, I imagine? This seems lose lose - stay suspended until hostilities die down, or take the massive share price hit.

How utterly depressing: I miss my 5/5 strikes in Niger that'll be online by the end of 2019...

Lovely to see the momentum here, both in terms of successfully developing the mining prospects and of the share price itself!

Lovely to see this progressing as planned - management are building credibility daily at the moment.

If we'd just developed Niger like we were promised I'm fairly confident we'd be over £1 by now.

Seems highly encouraging to me, consistent results without major surprises - exactly what this company needs more of.

The problem is this sort of thing is hugely distracting, both for investors and management. It's clearly cost us the refinancing window, which was an easy, low hanging $10s of millions a year, as well as the opportunity to be producing in Niger at $100/bbl.

Even if this deal completes, the refinancing opportunity is now completely dead and Niger could wither at any time, if the Nigerean government thinks Savannah is taking the **** by just sitting on its licenses for half a decade or more.

If AK continues to pursue vanity deals in these unfriendly jurisdictions, he will lose and so will we.

I've taken the possibly suicidal decision to top up a bit here.

Quick napkin maths:
- $20m for the saset
- $41m decomm. fee
= -$61m

"1.5mmbbl produced since the effective date." Assume 40% in 2020, 40% in 2021, 20% in 2022...roughly equates to $66 average.
Less $23/bbl opex = $44 operating profit per barrel
Probably some other costs involved, but that would equate to +$65m adjustment...more than the consideration and decomm costs combined.

Thank you MT, niformative as always. It looks like even should Petro win, it wouldn't be too much of a radical threat on that basis.

What's the likely fallout if it doesn't go the right way? Is there a real risk of nationalisation or is it just a bit of tax pain?

What are you on about? The story was a fake, probably a result of the Lekoil Nigeria situation.

It's my understanding that the hedges are options, not swaps, and so there's no settlement cost and no ceiling price for the oil they're selling? They just expire unused. I may be mistaken though.

Oh that's way, way off. NAV is nearer £1 iirc.

Regardless of NAV, I think Savannah is about the best value share I've ever come across. Worth looking into it a bit deeper. It's geuinely quite astonishing.

Huh?

This info can all be found in the H1 investor presentation on their website:
- Pg 15: $3,038m of debt is at the asset level - and is (in simplified terms) set to amortise over the life of its respective asset/PPA (i.e. no refinance requirement) and non-recourse to the parent (i.e. doesn't represent contagion risk even if any given asset fails). Only $1,537m is at the corporate level and has a "5-7 year maturity profile".

- Pg 16: 83% of all debt is fixed rate, only 17% floating. 81% of assets are inflation protected, 19% not.

Conclude from that what you will!

He's also providing $32m of convertible debt - at 23.5p. This is a bit upsetting, but I suppose such is life.

Ah okay, that's a bit different then. I didn't think any domestic powerplants were willing seller/willing buyer. I found this, which is where my confusion came from: hXXps://guardian.ng/news/fg-slashes-domestic-base-price-of-gas-by-0-32/

"The Federal Government has announced immediate reduction in domestic base price of natural gas to power plant producers from $2.50 cent to $2.18 cent per standard cubic feet (scuf). "

@$2.50 I presume this transaction falls under the DSO...but my understanding of that is tha tunder the PIA it's just seen prices cut to $2.18? How are they getting away with $2.50 still? If anyone can help update my understanding that would be much appreciated, thanks!