Member Info for GeologyStudent

All speculation at this point until we receive clarification. What is apparent is, we need an additional $3mill to transform this mine. Wait it out until further clarification and save our breath. The short-term holders now understand how it feels to be a long-term holders, except we watched our investment erode into insignificance over five years. For further info, look at Align Research's twitter feed in the coming days as they have a good relationship with CRA.

I've got 50k in this. A lot of money for a 23yo. I've learned a lot during the years. I'm not overly upset, however. I'm young and have my life ahead of me.

ZCI and secured debt holders are not willing to share their security over the Mowana assets, it's lights out. Without the facility, we cannot resume ramp-up or pay off the loan notes holders at year-end. Total disaster. The alternative would be perform another round of fundraising and get diluted by 100%. Atleast then, we will not lose everything.

I have communicated with Dominic Doherty on a number of ocassions via email over the past five years. He no longer replies to my messages, however. He is a man of good intention but he is just as useless as Mark Jones. Unfulfilled promises after another. We were informed that the rehab was 'largely complete' and the mill reline should be completed this week. Add to that, we have a hefty loan facility to pay for any further fixes and satisfy short-term liabilities. I am cautiously optimistic but I, like many others, have been disappointed over the past five years. Hopefully Kevin can turn it around.

There are approx. £1mill loan notes oustanding, however these are due to expire at the end of this year which, in turn, will terminate holders right to redeem for equity. We will be forced to pay the oustanding liability which will hopefully be financed by the extended working capital facility.

I'd agree with your forecasts if CRA had a smaller number of shares in issue. In fact, my predictions upon IPO were similar, however,now that we have substantially more shares and further to come, I have revised my forecasts downwards. Assuming CRA can purchase the debt warrants and the loan note holders fail to convert into equity, we can see 11p and 22p for base case and DMS, respectively. Nonetheless, being cautious, I foresee 8p/16p.

At $2.80/lb, net profit margin will be 14% as all-in cash costs plus debt servicing and taxes is approx. $2.40/lb at base case of 12ktpa.

In the operational update for the month of November, which will be released soon, I expect production to be at 300 tonnes. In the subsequent months, I expect 500, 700, 800-900 and 1000 tonnes, respectively. We should be at nameplate capacity in March 2019. At approx. 500 tonnes, we are at operating cashflow break-even.

CRA have experienced net negative cashflows of approx. $5mill in H2 so far. This could be recovered from 1.5 months of production at nameplate capacity. Plant rehab should be completed soon and it has gone according to plan thus far, with only a reline and water repairs outstanding. These will be relatively simple fixes.

CRA is highly leverage with an extremely low market value of equity. Nearly everything they own has been acquired through debt. We are at a high risk of bankruptcy in our current state - even with our extended loan facility. Hopefully, the plant repairs will reverse our predicament and generate much needed cashflows.

planned reline of the mill should take no more than two weeks. I expect re-commencement of the ramp-up to began in January, with nameplate capacity within reach by March 2019. With 450mill shares in issue, I expect 8p contingent on achieving steady state production at nameplate capacity. An abysmal state of affairs considering that we IPO'ed at 10p with no commercial production. Moreover, the planned funding for the DMS will have to be delayed at the request of potential funders: allowing time to determine operational robustness. Upon approval of funding and time required for DMS construction, we should see a rise to 16-18p in Q1 2021. Once we have repaid our debt in its entirety, we should see a further uplift to 22-24p in 2023. It's going to take five years for the share price to rise back to the delisting level of 20p and for me to breakeven, assuming best case scenario. Total scum. The acquisition was done to enrich the BoD and maintain their six-figure salaries. All predictions based on $2.80/lb copper.

It was also a buying opportunity in 2013, when a wealthy Saudi investor invested £1.5mill at 450p. His holding would now be worth £2.5k. In the words of Mark Jones - our infamous COO - it has been 'transformational'.

I don't know what your average is but I suspect it is below that of long-term holders who have been stuck in this disaster since pre-acquisition. Most of us have averages in excess of 20p. If you're a new holder, I'd count yourself fortunate as, providing nameplate capacity is reached, you'll be rewarded. The long-term holders will be lucky to get 50% of their investment back. A disaster from start to finish from a long-term shareholder perspective.

is largely completed. Mill reline expected next week. Expect full nameplate capacity within 3-4 months. Looking good so far.

The $/£1mill consideration owed to Penmin at year end will be deferred again. However, there is still a sum of roughly £1mill payable by year end to loan note holders. In my view, this will either be financed from internally generated cash flow or sale of the Zambian gold assets.

One of two things is going to transpire within the next six months: (1) We fail to fix the production issues and we all lose our investment (2) Plan issues are fixed and we reach nameplate capacity, at which point we will be at 8-9p (depending on shares in issue). In such case, we shall be able to secure additional funding for the DMS and nearly double our output. Kevin has installed DMS technology before and I am confident he can introduce it again. 16-18p in Q2 2020. Simple as that.

be working twice as hard if he actually bought the shares instead of being gifted them.

they can sell the Zambian gold project, they will have more than sufficient funds to cover the loan notes. Time will tell. One thing is clear, however. I don't expect October production figures to be positive. If they were, they would have been published late last month, which coincidentally was the week in which both of our non-exec's resigned.

All my research is back at home - I'm currently in China. If I recall correctly, we should be breaking even at 50-55% capacity as we've deferred a number of payments. That's all I can remember. In September, we operated at 25% capacity.

Considering that the processing facility was only operational for one week in September - which they so expertly concealed, or revealed in an obscure manner - I find it hard to believe that October figures would be worse. As per the RNS, it was stated that improvements would not interupt operations. If this does not improve by December, we've all lost our investment, as it would near impossible to raise further funds. Simple as that.