Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Blimey, I see the level of sensible dialogue on this board dropped a fair bit today by some people. Looking back over the last few years during the downturn, most M&A activity outside the US shale patch has turned out to be incredibly lucrative for the buyers. A lot of deals paying for themselves in just two years. We have our own perfect example from EON. Daylight robbery at $150m. With the massive tax position in the UK, more production here for Premier would be wonderful. It would have to get through the lenders so if it does happen, I have no doubt it would be because it will make an awful lot of money in the long run. Certain people who have sold out jumping on the scaremongering bandwagon ain’t pretty.
Quoted prospect size in block 30 is large, but nothing like the size of Zama. Plus, I’d rather we stuck holes in 4 other prospects in block 7 before we flog it. Nothing worse than selling only to find there were one or two other decent sized fields sitting there too.
Next week is unlikely, given they have to get all the way through a fairly thick reservoir, probably while taking whole core along the way (significantly slower drilling rates), then run a suite of wireline logs, unless they plan to announce results based on just LWD data. Given there’s no particular rush for Talos they might take their time.
Auson, some gas contracts in certain countries are tied to oil price movements. Not sure if this is the case here, but it’s not always like the North Sea where gas has its own market relatively independent from oil prices.
Brent
What can I say, finally a surprisingly good TU.
sankeys, that’s quite bullish on debt reduction. If all money from asset sales (will Pakistan ever finish?!?) is paid, then it should be doable. If not, I suspect there’s some risk of not even hitting the low end of the $300-400 million range. In other news, any tanker trackers seen one around Catcher recently?
And yet shale keeps beating every expectation of production growth. Funny that.
Mrd, remember at $58 oil PMO is making money but ENQ isn’t. Their higher breakeven probably explains poor performance compared to peers.
Better question instead of share price guesses is what the update on thurs will say about debt. Will the number start with 2.3 or will it start with 2.4?
Goldenbadger, not sure u agree with the ‘150m boe minimum to PMO’. I’d say that’s more like a P10 figure (10% chance). You know a sizeable chunk of Zama isn’t in the block PMO has a stake in? So let’s say Zama comes in smaller than predicted and that more than expected is in Pemex’s block. That’s what I would call a minimum. Suddenly PMO’s share is only 50mmboe. This isn’t what I expect will happen, but too often people inexperienced with the risk and uncertainty of oil exploration and appraisal assume things will always come in on the large side of the scale. I hope it does, but it isn’t a given.
1 billion minimum? I’m not sure minimum means what you think it does.
Talos is much too big a company to take a 70% hit on Zama news. It’s major growth engine for them but hardly as crucial as it is to PMO. In other related news, Pemex’s appraisal well across the block boundary has been delayed (again) by several months. Unlikely to spud until March at the earliest. Issues with finalising the contract for the Tiger-1 rig they’ll be using.
Stealmywifie, I noticed that too. A little company like PMO has a chunk of two of the best conventional oil projects in the world. Madness to have a market cap this low, even with the bloody debt mountain.
I do rpoodle, it’s basically a copy paste job from this document: https://s1.q4cdn.com/651804090/files/Fleet%20Status/2019/010219-Fleet-Status-Filing.pdf Looks like work at Tolmount and maybe Catcher tiebacks.
Unless they plan to release news from the initial wellbore before the sidetrack is complete (maybe at the trading update next week?), I wouldn’t expect to hear anything for at least another month. They’ve got to get to the reservoir, then through it to an even deeper target, then back up to side track it, come back through the reservoir and perform a DST. That’s not quick. Hopefully if news before the sidetrack is good they’ll release something.
$2 in 30 minutes. Nice.
They managed to find one of the few with less charisma than TD to put on camera. I bet the PMO office is a right laugh...
I’d guess 85k will be guidance for next year.
I think there was a final offload before year end today. I make the average production for the final four months of the year about 56kbopd, so perhaps just under 60koepd. Not bad at all considering it was shut down for a week or more in early sept. Without that it’s closer to 65kboepd. That sort of over performance is clearly being completely overlooked by the market, but it won’t be forever. Q1 should bring us FID on a couple tie backs to the FPSO plus reserves increase. All good.