Member Info for GD1962

“The Financial Reporting Council (“FRC”) has commenced an investigation in relation to the audit conducted by KPMG LLP of the consolidated financial statements of Entain plc for the year ended 31 December 2022.”

Published by Frc couple of days ago,,, could be shoddy audit work, could be dodgy accounting that auditors didn’t spot,,,

AA probably wants people to forget about netherlands, not turned out his best deal,,, claimed it was 119 mmboe of 2p and 2c reserves when they bought tulip in 2021,, now only less than 4 mmboe per that h1 2024 presentation!!!

re: sale, surely no one would buy it with the 50 mill EUR tax issue overhang without some super warranty\guaratnee from KIST in place

Ideal world is startup in may and the tanker arriving on 1 june to take that first full cargo. the '25 guidance of only 8-9k a day seems pretty weak imo given they have taken about a peak high of 15k once jotun starts up.

There was an extra tax take by dutch gov kicks in if gas prices went over a certain level,,around 50 eur/mwh I think

Rns last year said Jotun startup would be q2 2025,, yesterday rns says vaguer ‘mid year’ 2025 which imo suggests a bit more of slip

$32 mill of trapped cash at year end compared to just 2 at interims,,,decom markets getting spooked by going concern issues,,?

guess if someone bigger took a look at kist they could use better credit/balance sheet to release some of that

rgds

GD

They didn't last year,,, and no reason to really(only would expect rns if for some reason it was delayed until 2025)

I see the spiralis company website has a big 'invest now' button should you wish to join in,,,

the sole director of spiralis; nicholas davis; looks like a bit of a ''colourful'' character ,, track record includes

-instajet; (private plane hire club) - seems to have ceased operating possibly leaving customers who paid up front out of pocket?

-scoot ferries; isle of wight ferry service that went bust

-gulf of aden group transits (GoAGT); a provider of maritime security went bust owing salaries to seamen

-apollo yachts; company meant to sponsor YJA Yachtsman of the Year Awards described in press as "This guy purported to be a millionaire but turned out to be a man of straw. I don’t think I’ve ever been so comprehensively hoodwinked"

-merchant maritime warfare centre and local letterbox ltd; from companies house filings, both of these looks to have been wound up at request of hmrc so probably owing tax

hoping that AA has done more DD on the company and the guy than what i managed to find out above in 10 mins googling

rgds

GD

Bit confused as Kist's previous presentations and reports indicated phase v was already a ''done deal'' and it was phase vi that still needed sanctioning. the phase V balder wells had been ''booked'' already as 2p reserves by Kist as far as I can see so no new news here (explaining lack of rns,,?)

Some figures about the gas storage business were in the interims. it made a Ebitda loss of $1.9 mill, and had cash opex of $3.5m (in just over 2 months,,,seems a lot??)

and i guess the cushion gas inventory may be more than purchase price,, but to get that gas out that involves shutting the whole site down, closing the business and need a load of brine to flush out that gas,,,so would take a lot of time and not be cheap (and you would not have a gas storage business once it is out!!)

rgds

GD

Pls someone help me out here and check my back of ciggy packet maths

total debt (excl that $45m which is going to get cancelled) is now $245m. that debt carries on growing as some of the interest is compounded. (looking at interim results note 5.1 )

...the 10.25% bond all compounds so will be $117 x 1.1025^3 =$157 in 3 yrs time at maturity

...the 9.75% bond half compounds so will be $128 x 1.0525^2 =$142 in 2 yrs time at maturity

so need to pay off just about $300m in total

balder production gives us extra lets say 7,000 bopd on average after starting up in middle 2025 until when bond s are due

say oil price is $75, less $5/bbl operating costs (mentioned prev in chat as something var said) and 78% tax rate in norway gives us 7,000 x 365 x 2 x $(75-5) x 22% = around $80m after tax cash over 2 years which takes us roughly to time of the last bond payment

$70 cash now pus $80 rebate plus $80 estimated cash flow after tax from balder over 2 yrs = $230 which is v short of the debt amount?

netherlands and uk don't seem to be making much money pre tax,,, so even less after tax and no sign of reversing production decline there,,,, also there is $80 mill tax due (ok maybe half of that is the eu tax they think they don't get liable for), g&a costs, bond interest,,, am i missing sth key here to bridge the gap??

Would be a better show of confidence if the directors put hands in pockets and bought some more shares at this price instead of getting AAs friends sorry ‘’indepedent’’ non exec directors to approve free options but at least there are signs of life

Link was on AGm notice but that is tucked away somewhere on website so here it is again,,, 11am

meetmeinthecloud.zoom.us/j/82857350047?pwd=33itP1Mi6FaA90ipGrhhRxiuwzsMzI.1

Welcome

GD

£8 million,,, after tax reliefs that is only £700k

of course that calculation only really works if you are making profit and tax paying,,,!

Don’t like playing my source vs your source, but this is my understanding

Total started their sale process in early autumn last year (documented in press at the time)

Prax were part of that process but another party got quickly advanced,,, that deal stalled(possibly as gas prices tanked in q4 and didn’t make ££ sense anymore?). Total stopped ‘’formal’’ sale process but must have entered bilatiral discussion with Prax after wards.

also,,,Prax were v close to closing for another Upstream co with UK production last summer. but seller thought offer undervalued co so P walked away(seller will regret it now looking how share price is)

That licence relinquished will save about 1 months worth of SS salary I reckon

(nsta says it’s 43km2 @around £1k per km2 I think)

Prax don’t need to disclose the amount paid(yet but will in local accounts when filed)

not a material enough asset for total energies to show the price either

there’s a large decom bill on the assets and not much life left(3-4 years) so would not be surprised if totalenergies gave it away for free

will get calculator out later and try and estimate revenues,, but for now golf course calls!

Interim results should be released today as well,,, expect they will release just at market close and will contain bad news given yesterdays non event RNS and this mornings attempt at a pump

FID decision by kistos on orion and m10.

but can has been kicked down the road so often on both,, i suspect theyve both been quietly put down. key staff over there in holland have all been leaving per linkedin and no sign of replacements ,, no doubt AA will eventually admit at same time as announcing next ‘big thing’ to distract from what disaster tulip was

may be one to ask at agm if it ever happens,, shoudl be by end of this month but no rns yet,!!

Page 3 of the presentation has a production forecast bar chart which says ‘’forecast assumes a start up date of 1 july 2025 for the jotun fpso in Norway’’