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Missing d i r e c t orstalkinterviews

https://www.***************************/avacta-jv-for-next-generation-stem-cell-therapies-interview/412802236

Jimmy
It is worth keeping an eye on is the balance sheet numbers.

At interim's the current assets were £34m (£4m of which is restricted cash)
The current liabilities that are due within next 12 months are £92m.

The £58m additional cash needed to repay these liabilities means that the debt is being paid down slowly as earnings are diverted to pay off these other liabilities . They estimate mid 2021 to finally pay off all bank debt.
During the next 18 months I would expect the share price to rise steadily as their financial situation improves.

I will try to do a rough potential view of the future. Probably lots mistakes and assumptions, so any comments appreciated

They are targeting 130,000 oz in 2020, and an AISC of $850 could be achieved.
Assuming 130,000 oz and a $600 margin, the gross profit could be $78m p.a.

When the project profits start to flow, there will be deductions for Corporation Tax and the other project shareholder.

Taxation in Mali is confusing with lots of exemptions. Assume Royalties, Employers Payroll and Social Security contributions are included in AISC calculation.

Corporation Tax on profits at 35% would leave profits of $50m. (35% of $78m)
Mali Goverment 20% shareholding in the project would take $10m of this.
Hummingbird would be entitled to $40m (£31m)

Our current market cap is £78 and the forward PE is 78/31 = 2.5
For shareholders who are patient this could be highly rewarding.
It could get even better if they can drill out more resources and extend the mine life.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-01-08/Rhodium-prices-soar-on-demand-driven-story.html

Trust this works
twitter.com/EdisonHealth/status/1168838068540968961?s=20

htTps://twitter.com/EdisonHealth/status/1168838068540968961?s=20

A serious number of potential blockbuster innovative projects now in progress
AVACTA price could explode if any of these come off.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/910169/avacta-creates-cell-therapy-jv-with-korea-s-daewoong-pharmaceutical-910169.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315634-hummingbird-is-ready-to-soar?dr=1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

https://audioboom.com/posts/7450796-xtract-resources-russ-mould-alan-green

Lots or odd lots being sold as weak PI holders are rinsed out.
Have bought 50k-50k -50k +100k this morning , and feel very confident
IT WORKS

Tharisa quote their PGM percentages by mass from their mine in the SW Limb of the Busfveld Complex.
For 2018 it was
Platinum 54.9%
Palladium 16.7%
Rhodium 9.8%
JM should get the figure from the refiners, and they vary in each of their operations.
For commercial reasons they may not want to publish the breakdowns unless they are legally required to

Not aware of any detailed resource statements for the tailing stockpiles.
The Resource Statement for Tjate has a breakdown but possibly a different reef so not comparable.
https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/investors/rns/update-on-drilling-programme-at-the-tjate-project/

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/huge-stride-towards-an-evergreen-model/25738

Need more information of company intentions for holding ADRs in an ISA. My broker indicated that ADRs can be held in an ISA if the share has a listing.
If SUMM relist on NASDAQ or any other exchange, prior to the delisting on AIM there should no problem DYOR

You have to be brave to hold this share. Some may substitute stupid for brave, but only time will tell.
Both Ethiopia and Saudi are relatively unexplored, but in areas of high potential. Not an investment for the risk averse.

We are targeting the right materials gold and copper.
Kefi seems to top ever value chart of junior goldmine developers.
In Saudi, the scout drilling is barely scratching the surface. If what they are hitting is a primary massive sulphide the potential could be stupendous.
After holding this share for 2+ years, I have just trebled my holding.

My current concern is level of share issues to pay for loans with convertible shares.
On 13 Nov 2019 issued shares were 1,000m , before signing 5 Aug 2019 facility it was 667m .
The number of shares increased by 50% in 14 weeks.
The average share cost was 0.8p and selling at recent prices gives a return of approx 75% in less than 14 weeks.
Giving the avalanche of the selling of these shares into good news, it is hard to attract new investors attention.

The financing of all AIM resource shares is dreadful, but if we continue seeing more of these results in Saudi it should attract the attention of the Majors.

https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/DNL-DITEST-26-Nov-2019-1.pdf

Just worth checking the maths of .
Current Calidus Res. price is Au$ 0.022 and 330,000 shares are worth Au$ 7,260
Exchange rate GDP/AUD is 1.90 so worth Gdp £ 3,821.
Can't see where David Reeves got £7,700 ?

Edison have increased their estimate to 190p based on these results. Brokers usually base these estimates on a 2 year ahead window.
In a difficult period Agriculture has held up well compared with some of its peers. Their continuing investments in international diversification, animal feed technologies and regional strategic acquisitions are growth drivers.
Previous sales of both flour and fertiliser divisions signalled the move away from low margin commodity businesses to higher margin lower risk activities.
In Engineering their businesses are involved in highly specialist activities which have potentially international applications in nuclear safety.
For the medium term the expectations are that these will be a significant value creator for the company.
https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/engineering-growth-continues/25519
https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Carrs-Group-Engineering-growth-continues.pdf

Novelion could arrange for Amryt Shares to be placed in the market (unless they have a timing constraint), and the proceeds together with the cash passed to their shareholders.
Alternatively there could be, pro rata transfers in specie to Novelion shareholders. The majority of shareholder are funds, so the directors may move with the majority preference. We will have to wait and see.

Not withstanding how they dispose of these shares, I wouldn't follow Amryt share price as a guide to its value at this time. The $60m fundraising shares( without CVRs), were bought by insiders, including Private Equity Funds, at £1.44 a share on 25th Sept. This is an informed valuation of the new Amryt.
Since 20th Sep, Amryt shares have been falling from the high point of £1.41 when CVRs were created. Some shareholders could be liquidating holdings to use the funds elsewhere, but retaining their CVRs.
Expect some volatility until these issues play out and we get a bit more certainty.

Bermudashorts

The Japan rights deal for US$ 80 m Milestone payments and 22.5% Royalties deal was signed with Aegerion Pharma. Since they are were acquired by Amryt Pharma, I would feel pretty confident all their contracts, liabilities and assets would come with them to Amryt unless specifically excluded.

Link to Japan announcement : https://ir.novelion.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novelion-therapeutics-subsidiary-enters-licensing-agreement

Link to Acquisition Deal: https://ir.novelion.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novelion-therapeutics-announces-subsidiary-aegerion

Also some interesting comments on the merger. (Aegerion a potential lifeboat for Amryt shareholders ? )
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/deals/aegerions-poisoned-chalice-gives-amryt-some-distraction-therapy