Member Info for Gadzuric

I assume these were the good news released at odd time and the share price is down. Could this be bittersweet starter before something bad lands?

Market is not biting.

Qatar, did we mention Qatar, Qatar, yes Qatar. If we say Qatar enough times then Qatar will happen.

Ha ha. What about rampers? What about bedroom financial advisors telling everyone hold till it's zero, because holy 'you only lose if you sell'? £1 party anyone? Let's discuss dividends maybe. Talk about stones and glasshouses. Share price and pathetic failure to keep project financed, after strongly indicating that it's nearly done deal, tell you what side is talking porkies.

10p to 0p results in 100% gain for short position, 3.5p to 0p results in 100% gain for short position.

Cracking post Tex. Blinkered rampers are completely loosing plot. Sxx should start selling tin foil hats.

How can there possibly be a good deal? Why would anyone give sxx a good deal? The good deal train has left the station months ago. Near or complete wipeout is on cards irrespective
of what basement gang says.

Well said RuSirius. These bedroom rampers are nasty bunch.

We note that Potash is a different fertilizer feedstock to Polyhalite and Sirius’ Poly 4 product.

Furthermore we can quote instances where mine plans have had to wait till market conditions allow before financing and construction.

We note it is much easier to finance mines where the commodity to be produced is quoted on the LME where hedging and forward financing products are available and relatively normal.

This is not normally the case with industrial commodities and fertilizers.

Worse still the US$250m royalty sold to Han**** British Holdings Ltd last September is going to require some explanation and a few choice words from the very generous Gina Reinhart whose family trust put up the money.

We are concerned that costs have escalated and were surprised to see Sirius offer to build a 37km tunnel and some other infrastructure from the mine to the port costing some US$857m rather than a lower cost solution.

Negotiating a lower capital cost alternative might have helped to save the project.

We also understand that Sirius had secured just 40% commitments for its Poly 4 offtake. We would be interested to understand how these offtake commitments might have been considered sufficient to underpin a $500m bond issue?

Management have called for the UK government to bail out the mine in an emotional appeal to save hundreds of jobs which have been shed.

We would be surprised to see the UK government step in with substantial financial support for a project which could see cost overruns, delays and the potential difficulties in the sale of its offtake.

Conclusion: We would normally consider it to be extremely risky and unusual to start construction of a mine of this scale and this type of product without being certain of where the finance was coming from.

Sirius Minerals has hit the headlines again this time with the laying off of some 300 staff just two days after Sirius announced work was to slow at its sites. The project is reported to have involved some 1,200 staff and contractors who were employed to build a mine which was evidently unfunded to completion.

Sirius management claim to be trying to solve the crisis but, sadly, we see little chance of a rescue and our thoughts are with those who have lost their jobs and the job losses that are likely to follow. On one level we admire the determination of management and the workforce to look to build the Woodsmith project and if willpower was enough on its own then the workers determination could get the job done.

But:

Why did Sirius management start a project where a key component of the funding was not secured?

Why did Sirius go for such a large scale construction plan (est. US$3bn) – multi-billion dollar capital cost plans are not easy to fund for single project companies with no positive cash flow from existing mining operations?

Why did Sirius make the assumption that it could get sufficient offtake commitments for its Poly 4 (polyhalite) product?

Why would investors agree to finance a mine where offtake commitments could fail causing significant financial damage and potential collapse of the mining company?

Why did Sirius assume that offtake commitments would be sufficient to satisfy bond investors for a $500m bond?

Sirius were not just short of a few quid, they failed to secure a US$500m bond issue on which a US$400m convertible was contingent.

Why did Sirius assume that a $500m bond placement would be successful on a single project company making its entrance into the fertilizer market?

We speculate that some bankers may have offered assurances on the US$500m but we would consider it ill-judged to take these assurances as firm money in the bank.

Why did Sirius assume that it could ramp up production to 10mt and sell this into a market which is currently estimated to be around 2.5mtpa for potassium magnesium sulphate (SOPM) fertilizers?

Re: Capital costs: in the Apr 2017 prospectus SRK’s Technical report used total capex of $3,546.4m including $857.5m for the tunnel to the port and a further $640.5m for the port and materials handling facilities.

In July 2019, RPA (Roscoe Postle) wrote an “Independent Technical Engineer Phase 2 Due Diligence Report on the North Yorkshire Polyhalite Project, UK ” – on the company’s website at: https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/rpa-report/ which did not include a breakdown but reported the overall capital for the project as $4,056m

Given that BHP has had its giant Jansen potash mine in Canada on hold for some years despite the expenditure of $2.7bn over the six years give some idea of the risks of trying to enter the fertilizer market in this sort of scale.

BHP has said it would consider selling a stake in the Jansen mine but no successful offer has stepped fo

Where was he when all the rampers on here where planning £1 party by Christmas last year? Don't remember hearing him saying that share price is ridiculous. He was banging the drums together with all the sweaty rampers from their basements. What ridiculous thing say from CF. Man is unfit to run public company. Completely toxic.

The boy is spouting nonsense and is blaming everyone for his devastating failures. What a ******.

Why are you trying to make people trow money down the hole. You have been wrong on every little thing regarding sxx yet act as holy gatekeepers. Subhuman scum as Alan would say. Desperate PR piece last night from CF trying to hook up more victims. Way too late. What a shower.

4p is generous price target. CF will be happy.

Very well said. Current management is ******s of highest order. They had good a nap after first stage fundraising and woke up too late. Now it's too late.

It was fun while it lasted but now back to business. Let the panic selling commence.

Be diligent, don't get spiked. Share price is overpriced by at least 3p.

Sxx bonds are trading at 33 cents on the dollar says it just may be.

If they suspend share it will never come back, at least they give everyone, unfortunate to be involved here, chance to get out. This process started in last August. Depending on people market savviness they left this doomed train. The ones still riding are last bagholders. You have nearly reached your destination. Advice: if you panic, panic first.

By shorters as they take profits and readjust their positions, falling spear catchers, gamblers, average downers, traders and idiots.