Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
I agree on your post...though I would phrase that there are exceptional things in the results...just not immediately obvious
�During 2017 we continued to prioritise HSSE and the well-being of our people while promoting safe behaviours among all stakeholders. The dedication, hard work and expertise required to stabilise, review and return to growth on a portfolio of 1,165 wells (with 182 active wells) across 9 licences and multiple reservoirs has required a huge effort from those involved. For this we remain extremely thankful to our employees and the continued support of our suppliers with whom we look forward to working alongside as we continue to build on, and strengthen relationships with all of our stakeholders.� Safety + 182 active wells in a substantially larger portfolio + �Trinity was able to install a sucker rod pumping system on a slanted wellhead in an offshore environment. This was possible through the utilisation of a Mechanical Pumping Hydraulic Unit (�MPHU�) on surface and a conventional sucker rod pump downhole. An automated and real-time monitoring system along with a downhole sensor was also installed to aid in the efficient monitoring of the system and the achievement of optimum production.� Growing skill with slanted wells?? �The next stage of development involving an internal geological, geophysical and engineering review of the Trintes infill drilling programme and the Trintes-TGAL and Galeota Ridge development plan is in progress. Well trajectory optimisation for the Trintes infill drilling programme has commenced; and Trinity�s drilling rig was demobilised to land for inspection.� Trinity decided that once it was in a position to allocate resources, the previously developed TGAL FDP would be revisited with a view to reducing the capital requirements via a more economic topside solution. Rework of the FDP commenced in Q2 2018. With combined 2P reserves and 2C resources of 35.65 mmstb, the potential production growth from future Trintes drilling and TGAL development is substantial. Within the Galeota anticline licence area there is significant wider prospectivity with 266 mmstb STOIIP having been mapped between the Trintes field and the EG-3 and EG-4 wells. Happy with that GO now wondering whether Imbert will confirm later today that SPT will be overhauled �later in the year� and consequently holding onto his hat.
BALANCE SHEET strong, and getting stronger Not only accelerated payments to BIR and MEEI but also a statement (as I hoped) for the payment of the CLN�s�this is really important �Increased Onshore 2P reserves by 50% to 5.98 mmstb (million stock tank barrels) (2016: 3.98 mmstb) � Total Onshore and Offshore 2P reserves estimated to be 23.21 mmstb at the end of 2017, a 9% increase compared to the year-end 2016 reserve estimate of 21.25 mmstb, and 2C reserves estimated to be 23.98 mmstb at the end of 2017, a 14% increase to the year-end reserve estimate of 21.06 mmstb��.as Mark says�very tidy. Jeremy going on the Board�I am a big fan of his and I think he represents the young blood rising up being schooled by the older vet Bruce. Plan to continue to deliver further production growth over a largely fixed operating cost base enabling sustained high netbacks with robust cash conversion. The strategy is solid as already mentioned I might have varied the next statement to Trinity�s focus over the last 3 years has been staying alive and clawing back in a �touching the void� kind of way The quantum and quality of the RCP inventory enabled us to grow production during H2 2017 and into 2018 via these relatively low cost/high return activities. The identification of new infill well locations will allow for further drilling and production growth during 2018. Future looking statements: �On the East Coast, a revised development plan for the TGAL field is being prepared with a view to reducing the capital requirements via a phased and risk-mitigated plan. Rework of the FDP commenced in Q2 2018 with the target of having an updated document resubmitted to the MEEI for approval during 2018. As part of the next stage of development, a geological, geophysical and engineering review of the Trintes infill drilling programme and the Trintes-TGAL and Galeota Ridge development plan is in progress. Well trajectory optimisation for the Trintes infill drilling programme has commenced and Trinity�s drilling rig was demobilised to land for inspection and repair.� �The Company continues to explore various options to strengthen its balance sheet further during 2018, with the intention of i) repaying the remaining amounts due to the BIR and MEEI; ii) redemption of the CLNs, and iii) accelerating the possibility of further Onshore drilling.� All good! �During 2017 we continued to prioritise HSSE and the well-being of our people while promoting safe behaviours among all stakeholders. The dedication, hard work and expertise required to stabilise, review and return to growth on a portfolio of 1,165 wells (with 182 active wells) across 9 licences and multiple reservoirs has required a huge effort from those involved. For this we remain extremely thankful to our employees and the continued support of our suppliers with whom we look
Solid set of Numbers�excuse me if quite a bit of this is regurgitating and plagiarizing. Let�s grasp the nettle first: Where is the 3,000 BOPD that some were expecting? A We have not been given a quarterly update with the two new wells included. B We were told on 25th May 2017 the following: �These combined activities have the potential to increase production from current levels of c. 2,500 bopd to an eventual target-rate of approximately 3,000 bopd within 12 months of completing the initial onshore infill well drilling programme.� Within 12 months of what date? 07/03/2018 was the first twitter video we got of a well being drilled for TRIN�(also my birthday�so easy to remember) but the company says in the doc drilling commenced �early in Q1� so let�s say mid to late Jan 2019. Therefore, we won�t know until April 2019. In other words, reserve your disappointment�TRIN doing what it says on the T�in! (little Pun) Their comments in the results, �The Company intends to build on this level of base production to reach a targeted annual average production range of 2,800 - 3,000 bopd for 2018...� Is entirely in line with this earlier statement. Admittedly, there was a delay: �The drilling programme carded for 2017 initially consisted of 4 new infill wells with the first well anticipated to spud in Q3 2017.� But this was on an opportunistic basis �However, after further evaluation of our inventory of opportunities, we identified over 200 up-hole resistive (not perforated) sands in the existing wells across the Onshore assets to be screened as potential RCP candidates. Trinity opted to prioritise the acceleration of its high return on capital RCP programme whilst working to increase and high grade new infill drilling locations. To address the step-change in activities, an additional rig was contracted to target the approved RCPs, whilst our two in-house rigs facilitated both RCPs and routine WOs to arrest reservoir decline rates and grow production. In total 37 RCPs (2016: nil) and 78 WOs and reactivations (2016: 60) and were undertaken across our Onshore fields.� �Disciplined focus over the period resulted in a substantial increase in operating earnings and the continued strengthening of the balance sheet.� Realised price for the year 48.6�how does that shape up for this year! (62.8 for Q1 thus far pre any Petrotrin discount)�operating from a fixed cost base! �Maintenance of a low operating break-even and high operating margin production� Operating margin of 24.3% - this really is a big number BALANCE SHEET strong, and getting stronger Not only accelerated payments to BIR and MEEI but also a statement (as I hoped) for the payment of the CLN�s�this is really important �Increased Onshore 2P reserves by 50% to 5.
Mr Market drove us up...rational or irrational Mr Market drives us down...rational or irrational For me...on a 3 year view with sound and conservative execution, what does TRIN look like, and what should it be worth at that point? In these numbers are the hints of what that could look like. GO
I think it’s normal for a listed company in a stockmarket...right now we are testing what the market thinks TRIN should be...
Hi C... Yawn...Nothing goes up in a straight line. Relax...look at the fundamentals. GO
We are at the start of something very interesting...the world is waking up to just how tight the oil market is. I am not going to re post on this but have been posting for months about the oil situation (here and ADVFN); what you get with TRIN is the ability to invest in an extremely well managed and growing recovery story while having a positive backdrop. For new investors...losses brought forward: $200MLN...that is a lot of upside without income tax GO
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Part 2 (all best viewed on a computer) The share price would in theory jump by 20+P in order to maintain the PE ratio. Risks: Oil Price falling hard Fiscal Regime in Trinidad Operational setbacks Funding around CLN: CLN details… $7.7 mln payback latest date January 2019 post all MEEI/BIR repayments If not paid back then holders can convert to equity @ 6P No Trinity staff members or on the Exec hold CLNs and the stated company aspiration/expectation is that they do not convert. Price targets (all given with Oil sub $50): WH 33P Cantors 38P Malcy: 42P
An amalgamation of posters thoughts on 12/04/2018, as ever DYOR! 2017 Numbers: Operating Profit: $11 mln Operating Margin: 24.3% Consolidated Breakeven for 2017: $30.9 a barrel Reserves: Management's estimate of 2P reserves as at the end of 2016 was 21.3 mmbbls. Group 2C contingent resources are estimated to be 21.1 mmbbls. The Group's overall 2P plus 2C volumes are therefore 42.3 mmbbls. Reserve outlook statement from the company (16th April 2018): "Trinity's booked onshore reserves only reflect wells identified and budgeted, as opposed to the full well inventory potential across Trinity's extensive acreage position, and the benefit of this subsurface work will be reflected in Trinity's end 2017 reserves." Core NAV as calculated by Whitman Howard: 29P Risked Exploration NAV (RENAV): 33P 31/12/2017 --> 31/03/2018 Last known Company announced BOPD: 2,777 -> 2,721 Last known cash Balance: $11.8 mln -> $12.2 mln Last known amount due to BIR and MEEI: $5.9 mln -> $4.2mln Last known net debt position: $0.1 mln -> $0 This is the Forecast profitability profile of TRIN at 3000 BOPD: Main unknown is the Petrotrin discount applied. The numbers are forward looking to 2019: OIL PRICE / PROFITABILITY (Millions) / P.E. RATIO (***23 Pence share price***) 49 / $15.6 / 5.8 50 / $7.9 / 10.37 51 / $8.5 / 9.65 52 / $9.2 / 9.02 53 / $9.7 / 9.28 --- 64 / $15.4 / 5.91 65 / $15.7 / 5.76 66 / $16.1 / 5.62 67 / $16.5 / 5.48 68 / $16.9 / 5.35 69 / $17.3 / 5.23 70 / $17.7 / 5.11 71 / $18.1 / 5.00 72 / $18.6 / 4.89 Catalysts: Efficient execution Oil Price Asset revisions Progress on TGAL Fiscal incentives with possible overhaul of SPT* increased awareness & consolidation in Trinidad Realization that Co is undervalued *SPT is the step tax that kicks in when oil is sold at 50.01 or above for a 3 month period. Tax is 22% and is visible in the numbers stated above. Why may this get overhauled? T&T have said they intend to. T&T now levy 12.5% against gas (89% of T&T Barrel of oil equiv output). This started on 1st January. Now that it is in place it paves way for politicians to overhaul SPT as advised by the IMF last year. The SPT overhaul should see an increase in productivity from Oil producers in the region, which in turn helps Petrotrin (who produce 40-45,000 BOPD). This oil is then put through their refinery. Capacity is 140,000 BOPD through this refinery (Trinidad producing circa 70,000 BOPD) and therefore Petrotrin imports Oil to make this worthwhile, WHICH has a negative knock on effect on Trinidad's currency. Management stated position on SPT is that it is not a question of if, but when... If SPT's effects were ameliorated for TRIN, then it would have the following effect on profitability: 65 dollar oil / $26.83 mln annual free profitability / P.E. ratio: 3.44 The share price would in theory jump by 20+P in order to maintain the PE ratio. Risks: Oil P
Hi...excellent summary at top of advfn B.B. Pertinent and up to date. GO
Apologies, ameliorate PPT (not SPT).
Out of interest (genuine question), how much money does TXP make annually? How much losses brought forward is it carrying to ameliorate SPT? Thanks, GO
Some thinking out loud... "Getting the balance sheet stronger Improving volume of oil extracted Lowering operating costs further further further Improving asset base ratings" 1 Check & in progress 2 Check & in progress 3 Done 4 In the pipeline Thank you TRIN management...Bruce, Jeremy...we really appreciate what you are achieving. 15 Feb 2017 "An investor calculates what a stock is worth, based on the value of its businesses. A speculator gambles that a stock will go up in price because somebody else will pay even more for it. As Graham once put it, investors judge �the market price by established standards of value,� while speculators �base [their] standards of value upon the market price.� For a speculator, the incessant stream of stock quotes is like oxygen; cut it off and he dies. For an investor, what Graham called �quotational� values matter much less. Graham urges you to invest only if you would be comfortable owning a stock even if you had no way of knowing its daily share price." Are you a speculator or investor? Is your "oxygen" the share price OR your calculation of the long term value of the business? If it's the share price then you are in for a merry dance with fear and greed. (For me) Long term and well managed: TRIN is worth considerably more than the sum of its parts...watching the share price all day can cloud your assessment and waste your day." SO, where are we according to Graham... Should I sell now as we have risen very quickly? Nothing goes up in a straight line so will the share price go down? These are current good questions if you have a short term mentality...you could have asked those questions at 17.5p and you might have been right but we are now 23 p... According to value I still believe these are the wrong questions to ask; If you take a long term view on the share, keep an eye on the supply/demand metrics for oil and you ask the right questions concerning the fair value of the company ALONG with the direction of travel then is 23p the right sale price? The questions above are all valid but I question the stance on short term views on TRIN. The good thing about TRIN making money is that we can argue the real value on the business according to real case study market examples..."agony and ecstasy" instruments (like Bitcoin and tulips) either cause you agony or ecstasy with little in between. So, for me...I am not a seller. I think we are just getting started. GO reflecting on the last year and the direction of travel...
Looking back and reflecting on my thoughts (posts) last year as I ponder the move in TRIN and where it is headed: 31 Mar 2017 "Shareholders expecting big numbers from the company this year should realise that this is a year of consolidation and recalibrate their views... Current 36 mln mkt cap This year is a consolidation year with expected 6.5 mln capex and continuation of Trinidad govt payback + debt repayment / servicing (that few on these boards ever mention but is significant at 6 mln a year payback and interest) + improving output + hopefully SPT OVERHAUL by T&T + ongoing scrutiny of operating costs reflected in dollar breakevens. Next year improving output, improving balance sheet, majority of BIR paid + majority of MEEI paid by end of year, possible re rate on some assets(?), drilling etc Year after that early in year...meei and bir paid off completely...improved balance sheet, good and progressive output, greater operational efficiency, attention turned to TGAL. In every one of these years some themes are consistent: Getting the balance sheet stronger Improving volume of oil extracted Lowering operating costs further further further Improving asset base ratings At some point in next few years (and assuming a 55 dollar price of oil) this company looks as follows: 3000 bopd 50 dollar sale price with 10% discount 30% royalties Net revs: 38 mln -16.4 mln operating expenses at fixed 15 dollars a barrel -3.8 G&A expenses Minimal capex = 16.8 mln dollar profit = �13.4 mln with no tax to pay thanks to back losses of over 100 mln sterling 36 mln mkt cap with 13.4 mln of profit = PE of 2.68...***ignoring ALL assets of the company*** This is using today's currency, a 55 dollar price of oil and not taking into account the significant improvements we should expect through operational enhancements or increased production volumes beyond 3000 bopd. This makes for an exciting prospect and future."
Thanks for posting...
around 5
According to our calculations, since 2012, we have consumed almost 210 bn barrels of oil, while conventional discoveries have only totaled 40 bn barrels. Over the last six years alone we have consumed 170 bn more barrels than we have discovered through conventional oil discoveries. While the current trend is clearly unsustainable, oil bears remain unpersuaded. They argue that huge discoveries of unconventional oil (i.e. US shales) have made the collapse of conventional discoveries all but irrelevant. Oil shale resources will total in the billions of barrels, say the bears. Discoveries of new conventional oil reserves are therefore no longer necessary in a world where oil shale production is expected to continue its relentless surge." Add to this that Shale produces a very light oil useful for only certain applications and in certain (non US) refineries...this is why the US is an importer and exporter of oil. Their shale is too light. The Global demand for their style of oil is about what is being produced at the moment by the US (~6.7 MLN BARRELS of shale oil)...shale has massive decline rates, bottlenecks & a limited market for its oil. BUT HEY, let's all hang our hats on the 6% of world supply increasing exponentially until 2040 into a market that does not exist for their oil to make up for it...What a load of tosh! Ultimately Saudi wants a higher and stable oil price: it is not happy with the price of oil right now because there is not enough global incentive to replenish lost barrels...and unwanted volatility will occur. I think they want stable 85 dollar oil...ignore the good cop bad cop Saudi Russia narrative...they both want it to go up. Russia recently raised their budget (quietly) to 61 dollars a barrel (from 40 something)...have some of that. How much does it take (pretty much anywhere in the world) to bring online 1mln (1%) barrels of oil? $35 BLN Upstream oil companies are not making enough to amply replenish their used up resources and there has been limited appetite to fund it...the Western press wants to cap prices but ultimately manipulating prices lower leads to way higher prices longer term. This is reckless, reckless, reckless. OPEC knows this and for all their rigging of the market this is what they want to see happen. Other than some insane factors about the economics of extraction in terms of energy spent to get energy out and how this has collapsed negatively these are the broad brush strokes of my investment thesis concerning oil. Enter TRIN: Recovery play Great resources huge Huge development potential from those assets Well managed Fiscal overhaul possibility Cheap on any metric GO rant over.
Have you noticed how skewed (bearish) the press on oil is? Several factors: 1 OPEC is not popular (think of the countries in it!) 2 Price control is illegal in the States 3 It is a strain on the economy if oil is too high so it gets talked down (Banks etc) 4 Russia is not popular 5 Oil is not green 6 The world will change towards electric over the next several decades (infrastructure allowing) so why bother investing..? 7 The EIA and the IEA are axed for some of the above political reasons to be bearish...so they keep having to introduce "Missing barrels" at the end of each year to account for the shortfall...which is a bu!!**** way of saying demand exceeds supply. Until it has become tooooooo embarrassing recently for the press bears to print propaganda bearish copy (owing to being wrong) this was massively evident as oil crept higher. Now the supply / demand metrics are starting to savagely dislocate...yup. Inconvenient but a fact. Why is OPEC at 163% compliance...Venezuela yes. Another factor is that they have under-invested for 3.5 years in replacing used barrels...the stats are massive and they may all be pumping near maximum now! Here is a stat for you: when oil last spiked to over 100 dollars...what do you think the ramp up in production (BOPD) was by OPEC to capitalise on the higher prices? Answer: zero They were running at full steam at 60 on the way up. Go to Gorozen and read their last 4 quarterly reports on oil. These guys are on the money...the press are mainly jubs, the banks are often full of jubs...the in house analysts are often jubs; there have been jubs everywhere (past tense judgement) not seeing the bigger picture at all...until recently. Read this (Quoting Gorozen): "Often in severe bear markets, obvious bullish data points sit right in front of us and yet no one seems to notice. For example, in a report put out late last year, Rystad Energy (an international oil and gas consulting firm) stated that global conventional oil and gas discoveries reached an all-time low in 2017. We estimate that the global oil and gas industry only found four billion barrels of new conventional oil last year that capped a dismal 20-year stretch for conventional oil discoveries. Since the start of the shale oil revolution in 2007, discoveries of conventional oil (not including shale) have totaled approximately 110 bn barrels while consumption has totaled 360 bn barrels. Thus between 2007 and today, we have consumed an incredible 250 bn more barrels than we have replaced through conventional discoveries -- and this shortfall is accelerating. As you can see on the chart above, over the last six years, conventional discoveries continue to collapse and the deficit between discoveries and consumption continues to grow. According to our calculations, since 2012, we have consumed almost 210 bn barrels of oil, while conventional discoveries have only totaled 40 bn barrels. Over the last six years alone