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One further point. Some of the directors have share options exercisable at 3p and above. (Without checking, I think that there are something like 40 million options issued). I hope that this will 'discourage' the BoD from taking decisions which will (a) hit the share price and (b) dilute the value of their options!

An equity placing would not be quite as bad as a rights issue. Rights issues tend to hit share prices hard! If there is a placing, I hope that it would be at a SP significantly higher than the current price of 1.8p. A significantly higher price would be needed in order to raise a decent sum of money. Bear in mind that this company has a market cap below �20m, but has existing debt of about �85m and annual sales of about �100m. (All figures are in pounds). Therefore a placement of (say) �10m would be relatively small beer, BUT it would create a major dilution for all existing shareholders. Therefore I hope that this idea is not being considered. To put this in context, a 10% rise in the price of copper will generate an extra �10m every year in revenues and profits from Tschudi alone. I hope that WTI will rely on its revenue stream and (hopefully) rising copper prices plus debt financing from Orion, in order to fund its re-opening of Central Ops plus (in due course) the development of Kitumba and Berg Aukas.

It looks like I am not the only one who is concerned about equity raising and dilution. The SP has fallen. (BTW the seller is not me!)

I am distinctly uneasy about this. I very much hope that any fund-raising will be via debt (preferably via Orion), not equity. I definitely do NOT want any equity dilution via either a share placement or a rights issue! I am wondering why WTI have appointed Strand Hanson, unless something of this nature is being planned? Therefore I am quite concerned. Given that the market cap is only �20m it is hard to see them raising much via equity - unless there is a huge dilution. WTI, if you are reading this, PLEASE raise debt finance, not equity! Debt is cheaper and the interest is tax deductible! There will be plenty of PIs who do not want to be diluted down and who do not want and/or cannot afford to pay for a rights issue or placement. Thank you.

We may get the interims this week, but TBH I am not expecting anything to get excited about. The Sept quarter had high costs and limited production, due to the leaching issues. Overall, I doubt that the six months will show a net profit, after interest charges and depreciation. Not a cause for concern, as we already have this much info from the qaurterly production reports. I am not expecting anything new except that we will learn the end of year cash balance. This may help us to calculate how soon WTI can afford to make loan repayments.

has today ruled that German cities can immediately decide to ban all diesel cars built before Sept 2015. This is great news for air quality and a major nail in the coffin of diesel engines. The decision should accelerate the rate of increase in market share for electric vehicles in Germany. It looks likely that courts and cities in other European countries may follow the German example.

http://www.icsg.org/index.php/component/jdownloads/finish/114/2645?Itemid= World copper deficit for 11 months to November 2017 hits 195,000 tons (up from 175,000 in October). World mine production down 2.4% from 2016. World usage up 0.6%

Agreed, Boffin. If today's sell-off of WTI is based on anything related to Pembridge, this is certainly a mistake. The value and importance of WTI's investment in Pembridge are absolutely miniscule in relation to WTI's ownership of Tschudi, Central Ops, Kitumba and Berg Aukas. WTI's business model is very straightforward and easily understood. Given that Orion's support is very strong and reliable, the future performance of WTI depends almost entirely on 3 factors alone: (i) The price of copper (ii) Production volumes and costs at Tschudi (iii) Progress with the 'development pipeline' (Central Ops, Kitumba and Berg Aukas), including future production and costs at these mines. F.

Yes, the ubiquitous red metal is looking good. IMO it is likely to break through the December high (about $7,300/ton) before the end of February.

about $200/ton since the low on Friday. This Friday will be the Chinese New Year. After that, the market could heat up again. During 2018 the main price driver is likely to be industrial disputes at the major mines in Chile and Peru. There are an unusually large number of wage agreements due to expire. With copper up 70% since the 2016, the union members will want their share of the loot - and who can blame them? 2017 saw a copper supply deficit of somewhere around 200k tons (Nov and Dec figures not published yet). The 2018 deficit may be higher, due to rising global demand (strong economic growth plus green tech) and falling grades at older mines. If we factor the possibility of major industrial action into a market which is already 'tight', the price action could be very significant.

TBH I am not keen on dividends. They are also counted as taxable income! Back in the early 1960s a couple of world-leading finance professors called Miller and Modigliani published a paper which mathematically proves dividends to be irrelevant to share valuations. This is, arguably, the most important and influential 'finance' research paper ever published. Before everyone starts saying 'rubbish' let me say that I would completely agree that dividends are psychologically very important to a lot of investors. However, Miller and Modigliani proved that this feature of human psychology and investor behaviour has no mathematical basis, in terms of generally accepted security valuation models.

Your calculations are correct, Sparky. A 10:1 P/E ration for an AIM listed miner is a bit optimistic, but even a conservative P/E of 6:1 would give a valuation of 45 pence per share. WTI's upside potential is insane. But it gets even better, when copper hits $8,000/ton (and it will), the margin will be around $3,000 /ton giving EPS above 11p and a SP above 66 pence. This does NOT include any value for Berg Aukas. I value the NPV of Berg Aukas at about 9 pence per share, based on a very conservative 10% discount rate (see my recent posts on this topic). 66 + 9 = 75 pence. By 2021 we can reasonably expect Central Ops, Kitumba and Berg Aukas to be in full production. If in 2021 copper is at $8,000/ton then a share price of 75p would be entirely realistic, based on a conservative P/E ratio of 6:1. I think copper could be a lot higher than $8,000 by 2021.

TDT, you may well be right. I am not going to disagree with your numbers showing annual copper production in the range 57k to 72k tons per annum, when Kitumba plus Central Ops are fully operational. My only caveat is that I do not think WTI wil expand to this level until copper is somewhere north of $8,000 /ton. As I am pretty confident that copper will exceed $8,000 within a couple of years, maybe sooner, this caveat is not really a 'disagreement' with your forecasts. In my post I suggested 50k tons per annum when we include Kitumba + Central Ops. This number was deliberately conservative. (I just can't help being conservative with numbers, I am an accountant - sorry). Based on my numbers, I stated that WTI has "HUGE potential upside." Based on your numbers, the upside is somewhere above and beyond HUGE.

Mrremmy, I like the chart, just one point for clarification: the right hand side shows Zinc up 50%, but zinc is actually up nearly 75% from the Berg Aukas valuation /ton.baseline of $2000

The valuation report originally posted by TDT is at https://www.dropbox.com/s/4ag0unim14muqrg/berg-aukas-valuation-21-may-2014-v5%20copy.pdf?dl=0 I used the graph on page 15. NPV at $2000/ton is about $29m, but on the right hand sde with a 15% increase in Zinc price, NPV is about $49m. Therefore, NPV rises by about $20m for ever 15% rise in Zinc from the baseline estimate of $2000/ton.

Patters, to answer your question, my specialism is accounting/finance and I did a very rough Net Present Value estimate for Berg Aukas. This is based on a 'conservative' 10% discount rate. I posted this last Monday and I have pasted my original post below. My estimate is based on the Berg Aukas BFS sensitivity analysis on page 15 of the 'drop-box' link posted by TDT last Monday. The NPV estimate of $129m is after all taxes. This is equivalent to about 9 pence per share for WTI. As the latest share price is only 2.1 p, I believe that this barely reflects the 'value' of Tschudi. Effectively, anyone buying at 2.1p is getting Berg Aukas + Kitumba + Central Ops for free. The really HUGE potential upside for WTI is if copper heads higher in coming months/years. Every expert commentator quoted on this board is confident that copper is heading higher based on highly predictable supply and demand factors. When Kitumba + Central Ops are in production, WTI will be selling roughly 50,000 tons a year. Therefore for every $1,000 increase in copper, WTI will make an extra $50 million a year. This is for a company with a market cap of �22 million! I believe that there is no listed copper producer in the entire world which is more 'highly geared' to benefit from rising copper prices. A good way to look at WTI shares is that they are a cheap 'call option' on copper (and also zinc, lead and vanadium since WTI owns 90% of Berg Aukas). I hope this helps, F. MY EARLIER POST: Based on a very conservative 10% discount rate, project NPV = $29m after tax, based on Zinc being $2,000/ton. Sensitivity analysis shows that NPV increases by about $20m (after tax) for every 15% rise in commodity prices. Zinc is up 75%, therefore 5 X $20m = $100m. $100m + original $29m = $129m. This is worth about 9 PENCE PER SHARE to WTI, after all taxes and even though future cash flows (NPV) is heavily discounted at 10% interest rate.