Member Info for Frogly

Sorry all - old article

Https://www.outsourcing-pharma.com/Article/2023/06/22/remarkable-trial-results-from-avacta-s-tumor-targeting-drug

Very interestingly, new website pages and link to Govt buying site have now been removed. Clearly a timing error, but surely hugely telling given CV progress is open to Avacta

CALL added 4,135 new users in H2 20, which represent annualised revenue of £1.611m (from results statement).
This means pricing of £390/user/year or £32/user/month.
Expensive and struggle with this pricing being sustainable, particularly in a growth strategy.

Mainly about the ODX and GAD manufacturing contracts, but interesting statement at the bottom.

Professor Chris Molloy, Chair UK Rapid Antigen Test Consortium, said:
...
"Numerous bilateral deals have also been agreed between members as a result of industry coming together with intense purpose and leaving competition at the door in order to prioritise the generation of new UK tests and manufacture them at a scale never considered possible."
...

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-government-announces-partnership-with-british-rapid-test-manufacturers

Theory: NASDAQ prep work done, waiting for CV to press first stage submissions button ???

A thought... I wonder whether material manufacturing/licensing news might follow CV/CE news, for the following reasons:
1) The need for / benefit of greater manufacturing/licensing has been public for a long time now. There's been a lot of time for AVCT to work on this clearly important and value-impacting aspect.
2) If such manufacturing/licensing progress were to be announced now, it would be relatively unimpactful as everyone is understandably waiting on the CV/CE confirmation.
3) However, if kept for post CV/CE, it would quite likely have an amplification effect on share price.
Surely, best kept and timed for after (justifiable through not being material until they have CV/CE)...

Some key numbers:

"... estimated price point in the mid-single digit GBP range. A higher price point is anticipated for sales to corporates for workforce testing." Let's say £6/test then on average.

"[Mologic, BBI and Abingdon Health] can scale up to several million tests per month and potentially much higher with further investment. Avacta is also continuing its discussions with other manufacturers in the UK and overseas in order to be able to access additional capacity to ensure that it can meet the expected demand."
So let's say 7 million/month this year, scaling to 15 million/month next year... conservative, I think, given international potential.

This would mean monthly revenue of £42m/month this year (c.£500m annualised), and £90m/month next year (>£1b annualised).

"... expects demand to be present for rapid testing for at least two years and probably for longer."

And then there are all the other products, where the real value is.

No wonder Blackrock is buying ;)

The vaccine program has been a pretty unanimously-hailed success for Boris. So why did he announce ‘everyone jabbed by July’ on Sunday, rather than at his much-awaited Monday address with the nation hanging of his every word?

Probably because he got a full 24-hour news cycle for it on Sunday, rather than it being lost in the inevitable school returns, pub openings and holiday bookings post-match news cycles of yesterday. Boris got extra bang for the buck on Sunday, and the country got a much-needed extra feel-good news day.

The vaccine story was the first slice of bread in the sandwich. His LFT strategy – I believe – will be the second. A UK-invented and manufactured test with excellent S&S specifications will be another big victory for Boris. And he wasn’t going to let it get lost in yesterday’s discussion of schools, pubs and holidays.

Surely he was going to save the second piece of bread to complete his ‘lockdown easing’ sandwich for when the inevitable news flow of yesterday has dissipated. This Friday, for the weekend papers and Sunday shows, would seem like good timing.

Of course, the second piece of bread may not exist. But, I can’t help but think there’s fundamental substance to the HP article. This is a senior and reputable journalist. Yes, some (important) details were awry, but surely there’s not smoke without fire from his DHSC source.

https://www.chernomore.bg/a/75-zdrave/218883-5-minuten-test-za-koronavirusa-otvarya-vratite-na-zavedeniyata-i-stadionite

A 5-minute rapid coronavirus test is in the final stages of testing. It is a development of the British company Avacta, which works in the super-secret state laboratory Porton Down, the Daily Mail reported.

The tests will allow the opening of the entire industry on the Island, which is in lockdown. People can be admitted to restaurants, bars, football matches and concerts.

Currently, the fastest test is in half an hour, which authorities say is not enough to open restaurants. With the 5-minute, however, everything changes, reports "24 hours".

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-19/biden-blames-trump-u-s-weather-strands-vaccine-virus-update

Excalibur is also nasopharyngeal only, which essentially rules it out for general public, non-professional use

Today's price rise on no news would suggest many think it's Avacta

The most infectious people are asymptomatic:
When Is the Coronavirus the Most Contagious?
Researchers estimate that people who get infected with the coronavirus can spread it to others 2 to 3 days before symptoms start and are most contagious 1 to 2 days before they feel sick.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-incubation-period

So my understanding is: "... we are confident of meeting and exceeding the clinical performance requirements for identifying [people who are pre-symptomatic]". This is surely a very strong statement about the test

Fairly comprehensive article on testing technologies/players:
https://cen.acs.org/analytical-chemistry/diagnostics/Saliva-tests-show-promise-widespread/98/web/2020/08

Interesting para at towards the end...
Nevertheless, these methods still require centralized testing facilities, which introduces a delay between collecting a sample and returning a result. “What we haven’t done away with yet is the requirement for a large lab,” says Stephen A. Rawlings at the University of California, San Diego, who studies COVID-19 antibodies in saliva. “That’s why point-of-care tests will be a game changer.”

Avacta one of only two companies then discussed...