Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
They have an uber conservative approach to broker forecasts so I expect EPS and PBT to be comfortably ahead of forecasts this year and way ahead next year. The dividend was unusually high last year at 57% of profits. This year back at the 50% level. Ory stated they are 100% committed to maintaining their minimum 50% of profits pay out ratio so expect a juicy jump in the dividend next year and onwards. Uber conservative approach also applies to the accounts. Measures like EPS are not adjusted or massaged in any way which is refreshing. Any potential costs are over provisioned for. I can see their focus is always on being careful, under promise and over deliver which bodes well. I asked Inbal personally about the Income Tax dispute with the Israeli Tax Office relating to 2012 - 2015 period. She said it has been over provisioned for in the accounts 'just in case' and will have no material impact. Compliance is a constant focus for them. This year in the Partner Network they cut 25% of their affiliates who didn't meet their standards. This is a legacy division now. It's profitable but it is not a growth engine. However it can throw up small profitable acquisition opportunities. The focus for growth is the Publishing & Media divisions. Furthermore they have nothing to do with spreadbetting companies and will avoid any regulatory issues that may affect the spreadbetting industry. Ory stated they only operate in fully regulated markets but they are 'ready and waiting to go' in those markets like Sweden and the US where regulation is in the post. Tbc
Here's my thoughts n takeaways from the chat on Tuesday. Ory & Inbal Lavi (CEO Israel) both came across very well face to face. Words I would use to describe them would be authentic, humble, driven, honest, careful, hungry, relaxed, confident, visionary, prudent and excited about the future. Inbal runs around 370 staff from HQ in Israel on a daily basis whereas Ory is based in Prague with his focus on M&A and further organic and strategic growth. Now have 90 in-house tech developers comprising 25% of staff. Their own tech and IP is a considerable moat preventing new entrants in the space and allowing XLM to cement their market leading edge in online performance marketing. The combined Clicks-Mob Dau-up group now showing synergy benefits on the Media side with organic growth set to continue. Asia represents 5% of revenue and targeting double digits here through mobile apps growth in India & South Korea. Remain heavily focussed on growth in Financial services in US and Canada where the margins are high coming close to those achieved in the Gambling vertical. Price comparison mkt in North America is still growing whereas its saturated and expensive in the UK. XLM will be running their price comparison sites in a lean value oriented way with online the sole focus. There will be no Meerkats or the like.
Great to see John piling in heavy now. I note Aston Girl on Twitter has also been buying which bodes incredibly well given her track record. Nothing better than the feeling of being invested in an under the radar company and then watching as the wider market cottons on.
XLM is my largest holding and rightly so. You have to be careful in TAP with the low free float of 48%. Makes it prone to massive fluctuations in both directions. Reminds me of XLM prior to the seed capital exiting at the start of the year. Indeed not a binary choice between the two but I'd be weighting towards XLM given the excellent dividend, very high free float and the nailed on smashing of EPS and PBT forecasts for this year and next. Dividend for 2018 and 2019 should be mouthwatering.
Hi guys, my advice at this level to prevent further loss of capital is to sell all or part of your holding in TAP and invest the proceeds in XLM. Things are about to take off at XLM, genuine rerate on the way and superior company to any other in the sector. I note today that John Rosier has just added XLM to his top 10 conviction pics portfolio. Watch this space
Ok then so XLM could feasibly make Profit before Tax of £40 million in FY 2018...and that's just for starters given short/medium/long term growth prospects. Current Market Cap is £285 million. Take away cash in bank of £32 million gives £253 million mkt cap for a company due to make £40 million profit next year. Even assuming a very stingy valuation multiple of 10 x profit puts us at £400 million which is 58% higher than the current £253 million ex-cash Mkt Cap. The share price should therefore be an absolute minimum 58% higher than where we are now which puts us at a share price of 221p. Grant investments says BUY with immediate 58% upside. And 221p is just for starters. There are no limits to XLM's growth.
Momentum building with XLM. I think a damnbusting breakout is on the cards. They started the year with $35 million in cash. They then spend $28 million on acquisitions plus millions more on in-house tech etc. Roll on 6 months and we see $43 million in cash back on the balance sheet. Wow. Just wow. Incredible cash generation and blew away my expectations with regards to the cash pile. Now a case of rinse n repeat. Ory is building something momentous. The publishing side of the business alone is quite revolutionary.
Rising trend channel says to re enter around 128p. On top of that there was a gap up following the TU on 4th July from 128.25 to 131.25. Today that gap was filled so should be off to the races again from here. Daily BUY volumes very encouraging. Time for lift off. £2 before the years out
I've noticed that today has been the smallest spread on XLM since it began trading on AIM. I assume this is due to the increased liquidity and can only be a good thing. May also explain why my two purchases today (juicy dividend ploughed back in) have been incorrectly noted as sells. If it's good enough for Oyster European selection it's good enough for me...
I've continued to top up in chunks since the presentation at 106, 112 and on Friday at 121. Synergistic share price rises look set to contunue as we appear to be in the midst of a deserved re-rating. This combined with strong organic growth, juicy dividends and the prospect of continued acquisitions make XLM a rather salivacious prospect from where I'm standing.
Tech, tech n more tech?......yes please. Served by the best brains in India? ...oooh go on then. http://m.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/paysafe-hosts-fintech-hackathon-in-hyderabad/article9593967.ece
Welcome on board Tim. Let's do this..... http://www.cio.com.au/article/615346/tim-thurman-new-cdo-paysafe-group/
I get the feeling the price is being held around this level whilst big orders are being filled. Volumes getting progressively healthier with XLM. At the presentation Ori alluded to Tier One Institutional Investors now looking to come on board with the Berenberg girls sat at the back nodding enthusiastically in agreement. Personally I've found myself recommending buying XLM shares to friends and colleagues for the first time recently. I'm probably not alone here and for me this is a useful barometer of investor sentiment. Finally people are realising that it's safe to come in the water.
Been buying since last week's presentation. Picked up more at 105, 106 and this morning at 112. Feel comfortable building a sizeable position at these levels
Well I thoroughly enjoyed the Private Investors Presentation by XLMEDIA on Wednesday at Berenberg HQ. Came away even more confident about the company than I already was, Subsequently picked up another 3000 shares yesterday. More juicy soundbites from Ori's speech and the Berenberg research note to follow when back at my desk next week. The future is bright for XLM. Risk/Reward from here looks extremely compelling.
Hi there, the FRC are not investigating RCN. They are actually investigating Price Waterhouse Cooper
Hi guys, i've bought a small position here today at 9.2p. John Rosier of http://johnsinvestmentchronicle.com/blog/ fancies it and he's often right at spotting winners before the masses do. I'm happy to follow him in here with a small initial holding.
In calling bulls**t on this particular post GSmiley in relation to PAYS. As you have admitted you are a trader when it comes to this share. You sold hard at 408/405 so it is now your intention to assist in talking the share down again to your re entry tsrget level of 360. Your interests are not truly in alignment with the majority here who hold the share as long term investors. The shorts are done with PAYS. They are in the process of leaving the building. As soon as they are gone the market price manipulation being done in cahoots with the market makers will cease and the share price will rerate substantially. If you honestly think that wasn't a great update then you're mad. IT WAS OBVIOUSLY A GREAT UPDATE, without a doubt. However the real story is that we are still in a false market due to the price manipulation being created by the large short interest hence the subdued price reaction post the update. Looks like the shorts have huge buy orders at a price below where we are now and the MM's will walk this down to get them filled. Something sad about you being on 'their side' at the moment. I tip my hat to you though. I just f**kin hate these coordinated large scale shorting scams and I am loathe to assist them in any way whatsoever.
However it appears a buyer is soaking up the 2.3 million sold this morning. As would have expected a bigger drop all things considered with this share