Member Info for FrankyS1971

hear hear gloria. very few on this board have any right to push back on what the minority sanguine sane investors have said all along. i wouldn't touch gdr with a very long barge pole, as another raise looks inevitable unless they cut opex further and/or accelerate uptake dramatically. the salary cut is an irrelevant gesture that cuts ops costs by 1.5% buying 3-4 weeks of extra time. its just for optics.

a few key takeaways: cash runway - burn rate is still ~£0.5m/month (~£6m/year).

latest raise of ~£3.2m only adds ~6–7 months of runway. sales and grants will add 2m further (existing grant levels + an increase in sales) = 1 year of funding.

ebit scenarios with salary cut included

scenario tests/year revenue gross profit opex ebit

bull (full uk adoption) 70k £9.1m £5.46m £5.9m –£0.44m

base (partial rollout) 30k £3.9m £2.34m £5.9m –£3.56m

bear (slow uptake) 10k £1.3m £0.78m £5.9m –£5.12m

even in the bull case (full uk rollout, 70,000 tests/year), ebit is still negative. the uk market alone isn’t big enough to make gdr profitable at current cost levels.

what this means

without international adoption (eu, global nicus) or revenue from other assays (e.g. cyp2c19), they cannot reach ebit positive with the uk alone.

therefore the raise + pay cut only buys time. unless genedrive proves rapid traction outside the uk, expect further dilution before break-even is in sight.

now...you can ***** moan claim i'm deramping all you like..but i've been spot on thus far and the numbers don't lie. something major commercially needs to happen beyond full uk saturation. if we go for a partial roll-out scenario in the uk it may make the next raise more palatable from a higher base. i can't predict the sp action, but its very obvious that gdr as it always has been, is living on borrowed time! more of the same = more of the same. if you plough through my posts you'll see 3 years ago i called break-even at 2027. i was abused for saying it. i think this is going to be about right.

Why is everyone going to pile in when the market cap is at 18M currently? What do you think the Mcap should be??

If HE1 delivers “OK” results (commercial but not stellar):

A Re-rate to ~£50–60m mcap is plausible (≈3× today).

On a post-conversion share count of ~10–11bn, that would imply a share price of 0.45–0.55p.

If results are better than expected (large flows, multiple prospects):

£100m+ mcap is not unrealistic (≈5–6× today).

Post-conversion, that would screen as ~0.9–1.0p+.

All of this assumes the financing overhang is resolved

Infrastructure, political risk (Tanzania), and helium pricing also colour the market’s valuation appetite....

Personally if you're an LTH you're stuffed IMO..lots of people were in here around 1p, so everything now has to go right to get your money back!

Once the overhang is cleared its worth a short term-punt as i imagine plenty of folk will load up on risk and average down. A poor choice IMO. .4-.5 will be as good as it gets but we shall see.

Here’s a tranche-by-tranche “ratchet” model showing how the final HE1 share price could evolve if each conversion round also chips away at market cap (selling pressure):

0% haircut (flat mcap) → ~0.196p (pure dilution math).

10% haircut per tranche → ~0.138p.

15% haircut per tranche → ~0.113p.

20% haircut per tranche → ~0.092p.

Without any news and just conversions this could easily go significantly down with the amount left to convert. Not out of the woods. Further - you are loading up on risk as though commercialisation is a racing cert when it aint.

There are another 5.625M in value to convert. Downwards to below 0.2p and without news it could ratchet much lower. No thanks. only half way trough the conversions...not even!

Emerald Sprouts < They could bid for Genedrive Plc as their shareholders may have more appetite for investment in the UK, Europe, and then of course on FDA clearance the USA. 2.5p a share and Genedrive is theirs in my opinion. £15 million ish. Bargain basement price if you ask me >

This hasn't worked out so far EC - Can you please put some of your positivity back here? (there is another word for it but I'll turn a blind eye for the entertainment value).

Sorry but that's rubbish. The bulk of any serious investment won't arrive until much later. A rock kicker like CMRS is not even on the radar yet. As it heads toward commercialisation is when you'll see it all pick up which is 12 months away. Not to say it won't rerate beforehand. The big money will come when the risk is off the table !

Let's go back to the Riverfort deal 3 years ago which saw a pernicious mezzanine finance deal that diluted SHs to smithereens. That was the best financing available at the time. Now borrowing rates are higher and you think there is some cheap financing out there which is better???Seriously. You have to be deluded or sh7t at investing to believe it

Mid October would be reasonable

I actually think in some respects GDR have done a remarkable job. They still have a going concern, they still have the internal team intact and being paid. They continue with the Go To Market phase and the firm remains in the hands of the shareholders. DESPITE the multi-year nature of procurement into the NHS and beyond. All this to maintain the persuasive argument that they can save the hearing of circa 200 babies per year and the lifetime costs associated with it. In the grand scheme of things, this is so niche and teeny with a firm that has no scale no distribution set-up and the world against them with competitors building out similar tests who have deeper pockets and relationships across the NHS.. What were you expecting as a shareholder exactly???? You have miscalculated spectacularly what was involved and I'm confident that will continue. Even in the most bullish circumstance, the UK market does not make them EBIT positive. So even a scaled up UK market they fall short. This would also need to scale up in Europe and/or the US. Even if this turns out to be a monumental raise, it may well not be the last. You can only hope that future funding will have seen some sort of recovery as the UK sales slow the burn rate down but the reality is that Ops costs are high and also fixed. UK doesn't cover it. Now you can start to see from that point of truth, that you're chucking good money after bad. Unless this is some human goodness vanity project that might make a buck in 4-5 years why bother?? Answers please.

I wanted to say that GDR needs broader European and Global adoption or the fixed costs are simply too high. And I can't see that happening without more raises after this one. Good money getting thrown after bad IMO. Abbott, Cepheid, Thermo Fisher for example need to get this over the line as they have the distribution power and deeper pockets. Hope they offer a buy-out and give investors at least something back.

Why Genedrive will fail:

1. NHS adoption & rollout risk

NICE has given only a conditional recommendation. Full endorsement depends on real-world evidence (does it actually prevent hearing loss without delaying antibiotics, is implementation smooth, etc.).

If rollout stalls (e.g. only a handful of trusts use it), revenues will stay tiny relative to fixed costs.

NHS procurement is notoriously slow — sometimes multi-year. Even if the economics are good, the bureaucracy can kill momentum.

2. Market size is limited

The MT-RNR1 use case is niche — rare variant, only neonatal aminoglycoside use. Even with full UK rollout, annual test volumes might be only 50k–100k. That’s not huge.

Genedrive quotes a £35M TAM (UK + EU), which is modest compared to other diagnostics markets. If they don’t scale into multiple applications, revenue ceiling is low.

3. Competition & alternatives

Other point-of-care genetic testing platforms could enter this space. Larger diagnostics firms (e.g. Abbott, Cepheid, Thermo Fisher) have more resources and distribution power.

Hospitals could push for centralised sequencing panels (cheaper per gene as genomic testing costs fall), reducing need for single-use niche kits.

If an alternative rapid assay emerges that covers multiple pharmacogenomic variants at once, Genedrive’s single-purpose test could look less attractive.

4. Operational / commercial execution

Genedrive is a microcap (market cap only ~£5–10M). Cash runway is short, and fundraising has diluted shareholders repeatedly.

They rely heavily on grants, NHS pilots, and a few early-adopting hospitals. If uptake is slower than expected, they may need more dilutive raises.

Scaling manufacturing and logistics is another hurdle — small companies can struggle to meet QC and regulatory requirements once volumes increase.

5. Clinical workflow & behavioural risk

Even if the test is fast (26 minutes), clinicians under pressure in neonatal emergencies may default to giving gentamicin immediately, before results.

If staff don’t integrate testing smoothly, the utility drops.

Training, staffing, and “process friction” can all undermine adoption.

6. Regulatory & reimbursement uncertainty

NICE EVA is supportive but not binding. For long-term adoption, Genedrive needs permanent guideline inclusion + reimbursement codes.

If NHS or EU payers decide testing is “nice to have” but not essential, budget constraints could choke adoption.

7. Dependence on one product

MT-RNR1 is their flagship test, but it’s only one gene / one application.

If that doesn’t scale, Genedrive has to prove other assays (like CYP2C19 PGx test for stroke patients) can get traction. Otherwise, it’s a “one-trick pony.”

Even in a Bull Case (70k tests/year, GDR is EBIT negative - 70,000 tests/year (≈full UK adoption).

£130/test → £9.1M revenue - 60% gross margin → £5.46M gross profit. Current Operating expenses (Opex) = £6M/year.

EU or Global adopti

hahahaha!! did you ever such insane b**** lol

Santiago - There is a massive overhang of shares to sell - what are you not getting??

How's the investment going here Roger - you've gone quiet on the CMRS board and was just wondering if you're ok??

Anyone know if Bodger 65 or FatBrokersPal are Ok? just asking for a friend.

Maybe he sees GDR as a vehicle to offset its losses against his corporation tax bill on other firms under his group structure. Thereby getting a cheap way of reducing his CTax?

Toffers that comment 8s plain daft. Mot halfway through dilution yet.

In summary - On track with delays. Therefore under such circumstances I always assume more of them. Zero % chance of a plant being operational in Bolivia by mid-next year. Highly optimistic. I would personally guess up to a year later. This is a case of accumulate and hold at this price. Clearly there has been stuff going on and this hasn't ground to a halt. Should time neatly with the cycle in Lithium market prices.

Who would in their right mind buy at the moment??

This will be in the 0.10s with an MCAP of 17M by the end of this conversion. Thereafter we might see a flow of good news into Q4 and next year - my base case is (clear helium flow rates in Tanzania + Galactica producing revenue)=~£75–120m MCAP...might see you back at 0.6 or 0.7 by Spring. Why bldy bother shouldering all the risk, just to get your cash back. The party is over and better bets now elsewhere. CMRS is going to minimum X3 further when drill results land later in month for example. Better off selling and taking what you can to deploy elsewhere IMO. This simply isn't going to X10 or X20 from here as some were hoping.