RE: Retrace20 Sep 2025 13:53
Mr Run, nice simple question "thoughts on how best to value this business", with luck I hope you get lots of responses - as it will be interesting to see.
For my input for today anyway - may change tomorrow! : 10-15 years annual production prediction, AISC, price of Au. Use discount free cash flow (lower discount, higher influence from future revenues). Maybe use 10 year for blanket - and don't forget only 64% owned - also put a 20% mining tax and 20% corp tax onto this.
For Blanket mine: 10x80koz, $1800, $3500, NPV(10%) ≈ £220m or about £12/share (Blanket only), if use 15 years operation ≈ £13.50.
For Bilboes mine (100% owned): a bit harder as lots of variables from feasibility studies. But to make a start: CAPEX suggest $20-40m/year for the next 5 or 6 years, production ramp from 2koz (year 1) - 32koz (y 5), then 64k (y6), 100k (y8), 140k (y11), 160k (y14) onwards to 180koz
For Bilboes mine: 10 year production, $1800, $3500, NPV(10%) ≈ £100m or about £5/share (Bilboes only), if 15 years operation ≈ £10, 20 years ≈ £13.50.
So company value ≈ £220m + £100m = £320m or £16/share based on NPV(10%) of future profits, if use NPV(3%) Blanket = £15, Bilboes £10 = £25/share - which is approx todays price.
Alternative - suggest do a simple calc based on say 3x to 5x annual profit (profit about $135m/year for Blanket), ≈ $405m - $675m for Blanket - depending on the risk/discount you want to apply (suggest operations in Zimbabwe would be towards the lower number, Australia would be towards the higher end).
I do think CAPEX for Bilboes will be higher - but also suggest AISC be lower than used - so I expect a partial balance when producing (otherwise 10 year NPV will not look good/realistic) - and I think CMCL are trying to minimising the initial CAPEX anyway.
Motapa exploration - not included at all - but I suspect CMCL recent price surge (10 - 15% in last week or 2) maybe caused by very positive results from drilling (easy to leak before its all compiled) or maybe some very low CAPEX route for Bilboes.
Like I said - tomorrow maybe decide different discount or higher Bilboes CAPEX - changing all the above.