Member Info for Fr.Jack.Hackett

No - I am wrong - you have now added tax into the equation.

Slightly different to what was presented a few days ago.

Mr MH01,

You may like to review your numbers, in particular between the MCAP (I think it is in USD) and MCAP in £.

I think you used the wrong conversion - as it looks like you have used the AU$ v £ conversion.

- you may find you have already converted to USD ($2000 changes to $1400)

If you agree - then your share price will be even higher (maybe about 25%).

In expansion on my last post,

To comment on FUNDS and BANKS and FTSE100 is like having a Horlicks.

Please also note, I have never and will never state I have investments.

Mr MH01,

I totally agree.

Mr MH01,

Firstly may I thank you for raising an opinion that is interesting and producing a whole thread of additional valid and interesting comments with opinions from many.

I have reviewed and applied your logic to Caledonia Mining-CMCL (my fav AIM gold producer) and Goldstone Resources-GRL (#@$%*" - opinion XXX rated).

So using your simplified model and based on actual or RNS stated production figures from the two companies for this year and using your AISC $1500 (CMCL is lower and GRL about the same):

Taking your PE ratio at 10x, and the 400koz/year GGP production (assuming this is for this year):

GGP: $2,500 $1,500 $1,000 £760 400,000 £304,000,000 10 £3,040,000,000 13,000,000,000 £0.23

23p v 6.3p = 3.6x increase in today's SP

CMCL: $2,500 $1,500 $1,000 £760 80,000 £60,800,000 10 £608,000,000 19,200,000 £31.6

£31.6 v £11.3 = 2.7x increase in today's SP

GRL: $2,500 $1,500 $1,000 £760 12,000 £9,120,000 10 £91,200,000 713,000,000 £0.12

12p v 1.2p = 10x increase in today's SP

For information:

CMCL info based on past and future production (approx 80koz).

CMCL AISC in last RNS is $1253 but $1500 used in above calc.

GRL are stating 1koz/month from January - take that with the amount of salt you want but don't give yourself heart problems - but the figure was only stated a few weeks ago!!

GRL AISC is expected to be under $1500 but will wait to see.

Both the above are producing (CMCL at approx 80koz / GRL only starting the uplift).

Please review their RNS for other info.

Hope this adds to the discussion.

Mr TimberTrader,

". . . I'll guarantee you 8-10p in the next month!. . .". , Is this guarantee only to your penfriend Norman or open to everyone?

So, looks like 8p is coming on the 3rd November - that's a 30% gain in a month !!

Question I like to ask to Mr Timber, - why is Norman an idiot (according to you) for expressing his/her opinion?

Mr GoldGeezer,

Decimal point in incorrect position - I think that was the fault with GRL RNS's a few years ago

50koz. . 5koz. . .0.5koz. . . its easy to do.

As CyberMonkey points out, even if GRL cannot achieve much more than the 650oz/month , with AISC of $1500/oz they should clear that debt within 12 - 18 months

Mr Corrumpo,

. . ". . . we’ve all been thinking we are on the verge of huge gains for knocking on 15 years now. . . "

- its already happened: 2020, SP 40p+, even 2022 SP 14p (even though realistically it was worth 6-8p tops if RNSs had any truth).

Trust disappeared with the expected production figures 50k - 25k - 12k - - - to 1333.81oz in 2024 H1 (thank the almighty for 2 decimal places).

Now - this company - and mainly the CEO, has until January to at least achieve the extreme low value of 650oz/month (which you can achieve by just collecting what Mr T drops), and the planned 1000oz/month. I still think they need additional help at boardroom.

From past RNS - the market generally do not believe what the company states - that's why I suggest they issue monthly/bi-monthly RNS showing progress.

They could have recently been tapping the market at 4 or 5p rather than 1.05p.

Mr Trek,

CMCL have made it clear that the Blanket mine is good for 80koz for annual production - any investment in Blanket is to maintain the 80kozpa. You will have to wait till further developments such as Bilboes come online for any significant expansion on overall production figures.

That said - I do think your suggested 1500 can be achieved based on Bilboes progress to production and continuous 80koz at Blanket.

Mr Dibs,

Re-rate speed is highly dependent on the actual source of Bilboes finance and timescale to bring online. We still wait the studies, a little patience here if you can.

Suggest Mr Trek's 1500 is feasible within 12 months if all's well, but re-rate will be 3 - 5+ year process.

Mr Bfdinvestor,

You stated, ". . . If the self same II's no longer see value in EUA assets, why would they have any interest in extending the period. . ".

Maybe they don't. I not familiar with the process of extending the warrants period and whether recipients need to agree for them to be awarded or extended, but the RNS never mentioned any interest from IIs to extend.

It was clear in the RNS that it (EUA) extended the date, just for clarity, "Eurasia Mining Plc. . . announces that it has extended the expiry date. . . ".

I am sure more experienced here can provide full process / procedure required to fulfil these and whether EUA can offer the extension or whether the IIs requested the extension..

Mr Makeabundle,

Unfortunately EUA have not supplied enough information for any reasonable assessment of WK, so I find it hard for anyone to take an investment decision. Earlier you may have noticed I presented an assessment of Mr Hippo's 10p valuation for MT&LO Sinosteel contract producing 130koz year.

If you disagree with anything - let me know. For your info I used the following:

130koz production - being achieved after 3 years of mine development, $1000/oz PGM, AISC $450/oz all with 0% discount.

NPV (0%): £100m in 10 years, £297m in 20 years (which is about Mr Hippo's 10p/share).

From a nostalgic view, if use same model but PGM data from a few years ago ($2000/oz PGM) then obtain share price:

NPV (0%) after 10 years = 20p, 20 years = 42p SP (value to EUA if not sell asset and mine)

NPV (0%) after 10 years = 11p SP, 20 years = 34p SP (equivalent value to 3rd party after buying asset for $396m from EUA)

But we are not at $2000/oz we are at $1000/oz.

But if you wish - I can pretend to be in 2021, we can all be on furlough, and easyjet was still flying to Ukraine.

Mr Hippo,

You stated,

"We have a EPCF deal agreed with Sinosteel. A sale has to offer at least as much return to shareholders as drawing down on this contract (in present value terms). I don’t think under 10p would cut it."

It’s a very interesting point you raise and can/should be reviewed further. The EPIC Contract is for 130koz PGM processing plant for approx $176m with no capital payback till 130koz is reached. So looking at these values and using today's PGM prices (approx $1000/oz both Pd & Pt) and assume AISC 450/oz and 80% ownership with discount of 20% for investing in Russia.

Simple NPV (20%): £-1m in 10 years, £+5m in 20 years.

Removing discount to 0%, NPV (0%): £100m in 10 years, £297m in 20 years (which is about your 10p/share).

So - for companies that like operating in Russia, I suggest your 10p SP can be associated with 20 years operation at 0% discount if the asset is purchased for $0.

Assume you expect asset to be sold by EUA for the £297m off plan - then the purchaser would also have the £297m ($396m) price to add on as well as the $176m.

Applying this, NPV (0%): it will be nearly 20 years before it even becomes +ve cash flow (not the most interesting investment available).

I suggest this is the reason the sale process is not moving (maybe good question to raise at AGM - is there an investment case for the assets).

Please note, I am sure there are additional items within the contract that would drop this value more (such as off-take arrangements discounted to metals price) and also none of the above takes into account interest rates at all on this loan money (too much effort to do for such an obvious poor investment on paper - compared to others investment opportunities out there which I rather put the effort in).

It is very difficult to get such an investment case approved by a possible buyer.

Anyone with different opinions - please feel free to present the justification behind your opinions.

Mr GoldGee,

Mining activity tends to be relatively visible and therefore gets relayed to exchanges.

I suggest that, if this organisation is looking at achieving their 1000oz/month by january then progress would be very visible within the mine and relayed back and into change of SP.

From my figures - 1000oz/month indicates SP of well over 5p.

Price still fluffing just above 1p does not indicate visible progress towards 1000oz.

Mr GoldGeezer,

There is one thing I think that can change this share price - and that is evidence of increase in gold production and monthly or bi-monthly updates to indicate they are achieving the very low levels targets the BOD have set themselves.

Seeing the SP drop to this level gives the impression news from the mine is not exactly rosy - eyes on the ground is always good.

Mr Redacted,

I know some companies need to achieve a share price above a certain threshold to maintain position in a particular exchange or index. Others want to have more shares to allow liquidity.

All that aside, whenever I think about share consolidation - I always think of Aston Martin Lagonda - AML : they appear to have a share consolidation every 5 years of the order 1 for 20 yet within a few years the SP is bottoming out near the original level before consolidation.

It is normal for prices to drop to the subscription price before any future rise - similar statement made on GRL (Ref post: 21 Aug 2024 14:48 on GRL).

If correct - this can be bought cheaper later.

As expected - price drops to the subscription price - as often they do and many predict (Ref post: 21 Aug 2024 14:48).

Still think the CEO is well out of depth if share price recuperation is anything to go by.

SP in cents not pence !!

Reviewing the recent RNSs and some of the share options listed I suggest the goalposts are not that challenging:

Management options goal: AISC of $1500: price of gold a few years ago was less than this. If they have been planning this mine for 3 or 4 years then based on $1500 AISC it would have been loss-making even during Feasibility!!

Management options goal: 650oz/month also appears very low (but still welcome for share price escalation)!!

Planned Production goal: 1000ozpcm by end Jan 2025 - a few years ago it was 50koz/year then 25koz so again the challenge set appears very low compared to original goals.

Based on the above - assuming these figure from the COMPANY have REAL VALUE (not like the last few years figures) then I get the following (based on gold at $2500oz, 30% divs from profits & MCAP 15x Divs):

Production 7800oz/year, Revenue $19.5m, Profit $7.8m, Divs $2.34m, MCAP $35m (SP = 5p)

Production 12000oz/year, Revenue $30m, Profit $12m, Divs $3.6m, MCAP $54m (SP = 7.6p)

- on bit larger established companies maybe consider use MCAP 20xDivs.

I know none of this balances the 14p SP of a few years ago, but if the BOD information in the RNS is achievable then the numbers look to add up against current SP.

- it is that issue - the data in the RNS that, in the past has allowed this to become nearly junk.

- the above is the most simple calc - until the company provides actual data showing progress to the production and AISC no point in putting further effort in.

Mr Corrumpo,

It maybe - if the spread is low - some of the buys recorded maybe sells in reality (I think its how LSE work). It is difficult to identify and some have access to the higher data that would confirm the correct transaction.