Member Info for Fozdog

Hi Valuation, i mean full tie up as in cusn and cl becoming a combined entity in way of share swap or cash injection etc. whilst I view that is something on the cards in the future, it’s not something I see anytime soon.
I agree re end product, there’s arguments for both at the moment, suppose Cost and timing will play a critical role.
Hmg might be involved in the off-take to make sure it’s for British firms only or building up reserves…but it’s clear truss wants to be open for business and foreign investment. I expect We have a Labour cloud coming re nationalisation again for power and water companies, this is small compared to that!
MO knows his stuff and seems pretty close so if convinced dle extraction then seems logical.
It’s really hard to assess it all, I had been thinking about extraction and feasibility before processing and £400mn plant is expensive, maybe that shifts back to hydroxide as much cheaper?

I’d love anyone else to come up with an ipo valuation?

The tough bit here is cl ipo and valuation, my personal view is any tie up with cusn is a long way off.
My larger holdings are cl and I have sent several emails making it clear I do not want this going on the cheap in a weak ipo market. That goes for any tie up also.
Cusn is £105mn market cap give or take, where does that value cl? The last capital raise last year was done on a ~£83mn valuation and techmet bought two tranches averaging the 16p, but the last piece was done at 20p making the value when granted in November 21, £105mn.
The q here is how much is needed to fund to production and what valuation can cl get to at ipo to lock in a lot of that funding?
My personal view is that need to bring in about £100-120mn.
Struggling to take a view on size and pricing on the ipo valuation. I’d imagine tech met will want to keep their same % which prob means a high valuation and smaller % sold. All very positive.
Cl has doubled every capital raise year on year in July. So using that alone gets you to ~£210mn valuation but doesn’t account for li spikes or potential/growth/resources of company already.

If pawgee is even close to those revenue numbers then this is worth billions once producing.

Iv kind of got to £400mn valuation, sell of 20% you get £80mn new money in and techmet can easily fund their price for same %.
Don’t think 2x on the £210mn estimate now is unreasonable?

Hi Jim/John,
It’s very hard to disagree with any points you both make. The hardest thing is ever selling at a loss as normally I would add if I had actual faith in a company.
The issue is 20p was reached by speculation and hope of where this is situated. We were also at peak qe so current levels are actually prob more accurate.
I won’t be selling because the drill results are around the corner. But I look at likes of cusn and if you asked me where I get 50% return from here in a shorter term..that’s where I’d point to. However I find it very hard to sell something I feel has bottomed.

I feel you are both right, emh needs to prove it’s own side but at least if it can the chances of a tie up
Increase dramatically. That’s right now the only thing alongside drill results I can sit back and wait on.

If I ever see secker involved in anything going forward I will not touch. Whilst I’m not saying he’s the driving influence here he’s just deeply unimpressive with way he runs a company.

Morning John, iv tried re-reading the rns for anything even remotely positive to think about. It took till July to start drilling & We have a huge reliance on the feasibility study ….for the end of 2023.
I mean since Oct 20 I don’t actually understand what the board has achieved here? They are clearly getting paid to sit and do nothing, are they even focused here or minds elsewhere?
I hope I’m wrong but why would anyone bid for the company here, maybe the drill results yield a positive picture in the coming months which will boost the sp but then what? They hardly seem competent of getting a package and investment together that doesn’t involve leaning and hammering us pis.

Vw buying stakes in Canadian mines for direct access to raw materials…don’t worry about the mines next door then the ceo of those is asleep at the wheel.

It’s not just the potential production that’s positive but also do not underestimate the agreement with Rodda.
If they can successfully decarbonise rodda through geothermal lithium and heat produced we will be a negative carbon producing company. None of the others have the same potential claims and This will be standout for Cornish.

Exactly mafioso, they have sufficient cash and I cannot see them doing a placing to fund mining business. I would expect the sensible option to focus on recycling business and get that cash generative before you even consider worrying about exploration.
Only reason I’m less hopeful on plants becoming operational this month is that the U.K. can’t even run an airport at the moment therefore just don’t believe anything anywhere is on time!

Not really sure what point you are making? End of qe has smashed everything and financing very difficult for anyone that’s not blue chip. Even then their cost of debt has gone ridiculous that m&a isn’t happening as a result.
I’ll stick with this, let the company develop and if have
To inject further funds at a discount I’m prepared to do so.
Quite a few warrants got exercised at double this price so that’s injection of cash already.
It’s a tough market to be in, but have to ride it out, know why Iv invested here so will hold on.

R.ball I think that’s the reality for most of us, selling now means you think this is dead in water.
I have decided it’s too much hassle to time a market, the market has been smashed due to global macro, impending recession but above all….end of free money/qe. I’m going to sit out and wait on my loss here.
There is still money out there and it’s hugely selective, znwd that should have been up the list is actually way down it because as John said….board doing so little, cfo useless to take advantage of funding markets when they were there etc. they are collecting and happy to do so it’s been same ever since bcn owned this with deutsche lithium.
I can only see us rallying when global markets do, as funding for all these firms is so far out of reach unless they are actually closer to producing or got a mega resource that can get to producing quickly and efficiently.
All znwd has for it right now is where it’s situated!

I agree with shareinvestment, the mining side I’m less interested in it’s the circular economy and recycling that matters. Do remember lot of aim stock trading volumes are utterly woeful so the moves are exaggerated down because there’s no demand to pick up on offer. When buyers come in and market turns it’ll be same, very little sellers and little on offer. So it can move quickly.

I am sadly wishing this is a repeat of the 1970 where the S&P dropped in h1 21% and rallied 27% in h2.
Historically in mid term years h2 fares much better 98% of the time… sadly though stagflation, imminent recessions etc do not look good and I can’t see that happening although some analysts now calling for double digit return into year end (which I can).

Prob is with bhl meh news got punished badly even though it’s not bad it’s just average and good news gets ignored. We had both and it just shows how many are sitting there with itchy fingers to sell anything.
Majority of investors now PIs especially can only buy a rally so regardless good news that’s what we will need.

I Disagree deep blue, the market is rallying at the lowest cost of entry, highest liquidity and “safer” or safest assets ie ftse or s&p.
High dividend stocks defensive stocks are preferred or those doing buy backs.

You can see that clearest with mining companies, ftse was rallying lead by miners - lithium prices were up and have continued to increase during this period but explorers didn’t move/went down (even ones with good news like bhl).

In these markets you buy highest liquidity where can get in and out, these aim shares are not that.

The people that will do well here are those that believe this is a solid investment that will lead to earnings and can buy down at these levels and hold/ignore/lock away.

You’ve just made the comment the company has had great news and so mid developments from the mgt company.

This is a solid investment but if you want market
movement then mess around in the S&P or any other indices. Single stocks in aim will struggle to really rally and sustain that rally especially during qe unwind.

When we get to revenue production from here we will see the benefits. I expect you might look back in 3-5y time and go why did I not just lock those away and ignore price movement in this type market?

Finally one of these companies is seeing buying by the directors that’s a proper line in the sand given the backdrop broadly at the moment.
I think director buying is a big sign of intent in these volatile times

In “normal” market conditions we would be 6-7p now. However I’m prepared to sit and hold this as really think this Is one of the most undervalued stocks out there with huge potential.

Bob what do you actually what this company to do form you to classify anything as positive or good news? Or even just a step in right direction. I mean a negative rhetoric on everything just becomes boring.

Reads positive to me, decent % and if there are other possible resources there added bonus. At least market happy today as think most news is getting largely ignored

Totally agree Seagulls and I also kind of find this a defunct market where one of the biggest components of inflation is fuel and food…yet the companies creating a circular economy, recycling, batteries over engines etc are the answer to part of the inflation problem.
So whilst I understand the market sell off in general on rates, qe unwind and inflation, the irony is the govt should be investing in these sectors effectively giving a form of qe to these sectors.

For those invested in cusn and cornish lithium please make every effort to voice to CL IR that we don’t want some insti only raise and at a poor valuation.
IPO market has been weak and some firms are pulling back choosing to use using private funding to justify valuations. Pis already got overlooked here last raise and I don’t want the same to happen at CL.

Znwd -60% ytd isn’t just a “dip” !! But yes averaging in some from here seems a sensible trade but just reaks of being opened up to a low ball placing with a “strategic partner” which hammers us all and if we don’t keep buying in lower will takes us years to recover.

20202,
The money in the world is a factor of qe and stimulus, all that is trying to unwind. Look at borrowing it doenst paint a great picture that household debt is now higher than was pre covid when people are facing higher living costs and less stimulus.
Also I see Elon musk touted on pretty much every single lithium mine out there! The best solution for znwd was always an auto partner or some govt involvement given neighbours like France passed legislation as they need to buy it rather than capacity to resource it.
The price is too low and I am more tempted to add here than sell now, but I’m not particularly impressed with the running of the firm here.
I actually think the market will rally circa Sept and growth stocks starting to outperform in USA but it’s going to be a bumpy ride from here.