Member Info for fogthemogg

32p baby, let's party like it's January 30th!

"pm stocks have acted similarly to biotech over past two years, basically been very neglected."

i understand your sentiment, but neglected implies it was somehow unjustified. pm miner earnings have been absolute dog****, fres in particular, hence smart money sold or stayed on the sidelines. we need big money buy-in to return to the glory years.

"Why is this up 9%? There must be a reason as TLW never rises 9% for no reason"

Are you new here? Tullow often spikes or craters for no logical reason at all

I had to adjust my monitor to believe it, as my P/L number is now green?

My point, which I thought was self-evident, is that investors often make the mistake of thinking that downside is "limited" just because a stock has already dumped.

If anything, trading becomes even more risky as the lower we go down, those penny drops are a greater % thus paper losses bigger.

Badjob, if your exposure is 1 share at 44p then yes your value at risk is 44p, but it isn't is it?

I could have bought 100k at 100p then panic stop out at 50p. thus losing 50k. Then I go back in again at 40p with another 100k because I think we've bottomed, only to then lose another 50k as it falls to 20p...

"shares are more like an option play now with relatively limited downside given the low share price"

You do realise that a stock can fall 99% and then another 99%?

Silver Squeeze: The Movie (Part 486)

Created by: J.P. Morgan

Directed by: Andrew Maguire

Produced by: Keith Neumeyer

Starring: Bonker, Max and Reddit Wall Street Silver

Rated "R" for Repetitive

The largest shareholder ex Peñoles only has 8.7m shares, so perhaps it's more than one institution selling because this has gone on for months. Average daily volume is 1.3m but we've had several days recently of 2m plus.

If you chart USD/MXN versus FRES there is a relationship, but it's only part of the story...

1-2% since December 2023 doesn't begin to explain the collapse from 600p to 450p. Ditto, c10% peso strengthening YoY wouldn't halve EBIT and the share price...

Funny isn't it, some investors big and small were constantly trying to front run the Fed and buy before the so-called "pivot". But we've now had two FOMCs considered dovish by the market, yet most PM miners and silver are still in the gutter.

Silver down 3% on the day now. Feels like December FOMC all over again, an initial relief rally that it wasn't ultra hawkish, followed by the grind lower...Toilet paper has held its value better than silver over the years.

Might watch Groundhog Day tonight for comfort.

Brent at $85, most things ripping after another dovish FOMC, cashflow and balance sheet deleveraging, yet it's still stuck in the mud.

I'm not part of the 90p club, or even the 50p club for that matter, but we are at 28 f'ing pence!

"The average share price since 1 August up until today is 533p. At the current silver prices we should be heading towards that share price."

Tony, given 520p was the IPO price and 530p was the lowest close during March 2020, I was hoping for a bit higher than that 😂

Fed dot plot suggests 75bps of rate cuts this year, that didn't seem blockbuster dovish to me...December 2023 market expectations were 7 rate cuts in 2024. Which is perhaps why today's reaction is quite muted thus far...

"Looking more and more like a binary play here"

Yep, it's Lambo or food stamps baby!

Look at their AISC for silver and you'll see why they're mainly a gold play now. Your PE numbers on HOC and FRES are also complete nonsense, but you already know that. Although at c15x earnings I don't think FRES is particularly cheap, not for a miner anyway.

DK, the share price was double this early 2023 with lower PMs...

Bellamy, HOC is mainly just a gold play now numpty.

"What pensioner goes from the high risk of investing in a single stock for its dividend yield, to the security of an annuity and loss of capital?"

Why even be in the FTSE 100 at all with a divi yield below the risk-free rate and no growth stocks...There's a reason the index remains so unloved by big money.

The bad news is good news theory applies to weaker economic growth, higher unemployment, lower retail sales etc.

Hot CPI and PPI prints knock down PMs. Because the longer the Fed keeps up the phony inflation fight, the longer rate cuts and QE are postponed.

We're going to hear a lot more "there's still more work to do around inflation" from the Fed, even I'm bored of it now.

Producer price index increased 0.6% for February, double average forecast.

"If you run a business well the share price responds, so the two are inexorably linked."

Sir, this is the FTSE 100 where no businesses are run well except RR and BAE.