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If there was only one rule we would all be rich.
I bet this warren buffet guy said so many things that many contradict each other!
Rules to apply
1. Do proper research
2. Make a plan
3. Follow only official news
4. Adapt and change the plan if need be
Persian
You only solidify your profit or loss only when you cash your shares. If you don't cash them its not a loss/profit.
So assume the price goes up tomorrow 5%. With todays 9% drop (if it stays) what will you claim tomorrow?
A profit of 5% or a loss of -4%???
It all depends on your SP entry price. Based on that I assume you are massively up!!
Just a point of view
NS
Seismic doesn't talk much but when he talks there is substance.
Your statement "In my experience of investing in AIM oil companies, generally you wouldn't expect to get an RNS with bumper price sensitive news landing at 7am and affecting the value of the new shares before they've even hit the market."
Is that a rule? or an unwritten rule?
I am a new investor and don't know much about drilling (or investing tbh). Only the things that all you great posters are adding here. For this a big thank you!
NS
I am in too for a £10. I would not go for £100. The reasoning... it will be too much for them as a first sum. It will be better if we give 10x£10 long term. Too much money will probably hinder the community and corrupt some people. I prefer a small sustained sum that would buy equipment according to their needs that change over time.
For someone to buy a company he needs to know what he is buying and value it. This will only come after all finds and appraisals have been completed. This would be end of September. Then negotiations would happen paperwork etc... so if there is a possibility it would be in mid 2022 the earliest.
I dont think anyone would sell before all exploration and appraisals have finished.
You have two types of buyouts.
1. A buyout because the company is doing well and the SP rises. The company is sold for more money due to the potential
2. A buyout because the company does awful and want to balance their books. The SP falls because its sold at bargain price
Our case would be the first
Its way too early to talk about a buyout.
NS
NatePI,
That's great!!! Thank you. I have been trying to do this with the data displayed and copying the trades in an excel sheet :-))).
Of course it failed as I don't have the time and was missing a lot. Next thing was to use an active link to copy them as they scroll down.
I am not a day trader but I do it to learn and understand how the system of valuing the company based on buys and sells works. Also I want to see the time delay correlation between them.
I believe in numbers and I am not bad at them myself. The trick is always interpreting the data!!
Thank you again and if you have any more data tips they will be welcomed
Back to my day job now!! :-)
@Dia2belts, "so could be wire line testing any day now..??"
DM mentions in his interviews included the one you posted that wireline testing would happen after completion of each hole and not each trap. So its implied that they will drill to the end of each hole and then do the wireline testing.
Based on the RNS timeline if they drill 10m per hour this means that helium shows for 400m and 1200m would occur approximately at :
400m Monday 3am
530m Monday 4pm (they need to drill to the end of the trap)
1250m Thursday 4m all UK time
Of course add some delays as they go deeper.
The questions I have and I would like someone with experience to tell us are:
1. Can the wireline test take place straight after drilling the first trap?
2. How long does it take for the wireline test to complete?
Thank you
NS
Wyndrum, I was expecting the SP to be around 25-30p between announcement of drilling and the results. I was wrong!! Still I am making a good profit so far and risking some more expecting good news from the drill. Even though logic puts the stats in our favour I am crossing my fingers.
NS
"DM could drop an RNS with Helium shows absolutely any time"
The reason investors are trying to sell. They bought a lot in the beginning and trying to derisk last minute. Remember some got in at 5p and 8p . Even if they sell half of their shares to have a profit now and still will have a lot of shares for the announcement. It probablys 100s of millions. Probably 300m.
The company has moved so quickly to drilling that most investors did not get enough time to derisk with out the price dropping. So they are rushing now.
In most cases they will have months to offload. Now they had only a few weeks . That was not enough time for new investors to come in and buy them.
All good if you are not trying to derisk. if you are trying to derisk you will have a reduced profit
NS
Seismic tests are based on exactly the same principle. The only thing is that if you wanted a bat to do that, the bat should be 100 times bigger to create the energy that is required. I don't like this thought!!!
Few percent variation a day is normal. Remember this company, as any other AIM company, has a small cap so the SP will fluctuate more even with a small amount of money moving in or out.
We are just waiting for the start of drilling news so some investors will move money around based on their needs until they hear that drilling is starting. Then they will come back, buy and hold.
Anyway the SP has only had a variation of 3% and still is at the same price as 5 days ago. Where do you see a drop?
Additional
There is no way someone would know what lies under the ground until they start drilling. No matter how much of an insider you are. This might be true few days after the drilling stars but not before. Any bad news they may come out now can only be about a delay. Its not going to change the fact about the possibility of finding helium under the surface. All the research on that matter has been done and the information was relayed to us. Its the law!
NS
Hi all,
I have been on the board for about couple of months. I found a video a while ago that I haven't seen anyone posting so I thought I would share. Its nothing new but talks about the initial tests from Surrey University for Helium One.
See from 30:58sec
https://youtu.be/mSRlSXVzjBE