Member Info for FlySeaLSE

Happydays "I crunched figures in EWT RNS and declared this not commercially viable."

Please share your calculations. At the moment we dont have enough data to say that. Yes flow was low but this can be solved with the 20-30drills. If the resource is massive we can have continuous production for many years. So the question is a matter of resource in the ground.

Yes I know that it will be some time till we generate and the SP might drop till then but we cannot say its not commercial since we dont have the data.

if you argue about funding this is a different subject but about commercialisation... It is stated in the RNS that it is commercial. No argument about it!

Joe80

Well spotted. When I first read the RNS i was surpriced to see that it was mentioned! Seemed irrelevant to me.

The question is are we expecting this to happen in parallel during the road to production?

Does it make sense to do it while we are focusing in production?

The reason for the ML going down to the wire is only due to the deadline being too close to the drill. Analysing the results of the drills takes months and HE1 has only two weeks. So having the weekend to work on them is crucial.

My worry is that because they dont have time to analyse everything they would underestimate the resource and then they will come with a bigger resource later on.

Hehex

"If the study is late"

If they cannot get an extension then they will submit a preliminary one. Data will be present but not all analysed fully. Risk is they will underestimate and give worse than actual figures. They may still be good enough for a licence. So study cannot be late but not analysed fully.

"Will they need even more money"

Officially they say they dont. Its AIM so there is a risk of a raise anytime but is not expected.

"Study comes out They don’t get license"

Licence approval time will be several months. At the moment the submission is important. With the submitted documents we will get details of comerciality. Based on that we can make our own judgement how good it is way before the licence approval.

JWOZ

I didnt say it was a rubbish deal. From the info that they have given us we spend 6mil at 50% discount to make max 15 mil in five years time. In the meantime our valuation has dropped from 5p down to 3p and our SP dropped to 50%. When you see this you wonder what is happening. What I do is ask for someone to explain things I dont understand.

If I hadnt asked the questions with my concerns H4H would never have written the reply!

H4H

Excellent post. Thats the reason I am putting my concerns here as I dont have the time to do all this reasearch. I am following HE1 for four years now and when the deal appeared I now had to reasearh an entirely new company that i had no time.

Good info and like everyone says here. There is always a risk but at least now we are aware of it.

Crusty as Rukwa is concerned if the resource is big nobody would care if you need 30 wells to get it. The customers will pay upfront to secure a long term supply that would cover the cost of the wells.

The Galactica project might be a lucrative deal. The problem is that with the info that they have given us and the available information, this does not seem to be the case so far. So if its a good deal then its because they hide information we dont know. In addition that BS needed desperately money makes it look even worse.

This deal is the reason I reduced my initial stake and trading carefully at the moment.

All signals except from the Galactica project are good. We had low flow rate but this will be solved with more wells. This doesnt worry me.

Now I am wating for the resource estimate that is the key and the only new positive info that would skyrocket the SP. All imo.

Still believe this would come good but i dont want to overlook the red flags. I did that in the past and got hurt by it.

Tuesday is the day that the ML needs to be submitted. Together with the submission they need to give supporting information that there is commeciality and the details of it. We expect more information to come with that.

I personally expect a statement of the resource. If the resource is big then we would rocket!!

Peaky.

Initial estimates are 138BCF with 6BCF being the yearly consumption. So we all believe this is a massively good investment. However if this estimate is not announced or is low ie 1 or 2 BCF then the market would react negatively. So the more accurate estimate after the drilling is more key now after the flowrates were lower than expected.

Again inital estimates are huge 138BCF so I am asking if anyone with experience can shed some light.

The submission of the ML would not make the SP rise. What would make the SP rise is the number of estimated BCF that they will include in that study. So the submission of the ML would become important due to the resource estimate that would be included.

If BCF low then the SP would tank.

If BCF high then the SP would rocket.

My worry is:

The resourse estimate normaly takes several weeks. In our case we only had 2 weeks. Is that time good enough to have an accurate resource estimate in a new field?

Will they underestimate the BCF due to time constrains tanking the SP and then revise upwards few weeks after the full study is done?

"Why are you worried, for every seller there's a buyer. Did you not realise that's how a market works."

This is incorrect. MMs hold some stock that varies and you never know how much they have. If there are good news the MMs increase the SP to reduce demand and they maily sell from their stock as most people buy.

So they move the SP up to make sure their stock is not depleted and to keep liquidity.

So to keep liquidity the MMs would buy and sell stock themselves therefore not always a sell for every buy and vice versa.

MMs are not considered sellers or buyers

LazyOLeary

"This share always seems to dive on good news? from what im reading the company seems to be going the right way and achieving what it needs to achieve?"

Yes they do things very well but they go and then give it cheaply away for no good reason. So any good news is drowned. Its like someone building a house and every time they need money insteead of a bank they go and use their credit card.

Hi H4H

You have some good points. This is my response.

BlueStar SP rising is not directly relevant to us as we bought only one project and not part of the company. Yes its positive but doesnt give us money. It only gives safety that they will complete their part of the deal.

1. At the moment 3mil is not helping us. We have a MC of 50mil. 3mil would be operating expenses to just keep is functioning. Also this would come mid next year and until then dilution is likely

2. 22mil is good but again this will come after many years. Maybe 3 or 4 years and we would need to find the money to fund it. So it will take long time and its based on the deal that our finace director would make!

3. Bluestar leases can potentially be very lucritive but we dont have the cash flow to fund them. Again the return would be in 3-4 years.

I would disagree with the 6mil. We gave 50% discount so for us it was 12mil and a MC reduction of 20mil.

Its doesnt matter what we gave them. What matters is what it cost us.

I have been waiting for a return 4 years so far and my intially invetment went down to 10% after the rig failure and had to trade to make it up. This is not investment its trading.

Thank you for your points though. I hope there is a rabbit in the hat somewhere thats why i left some investement in. Now its only a 20% of the original and free riding but I am in this good positon because i didnt not trust the outcome the last few RNS.

Hope you also make some good money too.

Skippy. You are right!! I dont have the data. But the result killed the SP and made us lose half our money so they need to justify it. If they can justify it then I will applaude them. With the information and the results we have so far its a bad deal.

The problem is not the result. The problem is not that it will require capital to do more drills. All these were know from the begining and accounted from the investors.

The big probelm was the BS aquisition. (Pun intended!!)

Without it we would be trailing close to 2.5p-3p. Then we could have raised to ensure we are funded for 2025 with minimal dilution that would have given us time to make the next move.

After killing the SP with a really bad purchase and needing to raise money for 2025 below 1p the dilution would be devastating.

They need to come out and really explain why they did this! There is absolutely no good reason why they spend all this money to buy something that does not bring any value to the company.. Please dont argue about the deal as the company valuing HE1 at 5p downgraded it to 3p straight after the deal.

Lorna is also accountable as she is the CEO.

Our finance director said many times that we are a small company and we have no power to dictate the price of a raise. So expect to give the company away very cheaply. Really shameful statement. Needs to quit the company immidiately

Next inteview they need to clarify why the deal was to the companys and shareholders advantage!

CAstlePaul,

"In my 35 years of investing I'm shocked about the drop !! Aim has changed with the market makers making fortunes ..."

I dont know if this has to do with the RNS not being so clear cut or the software of the MMs being so good at predicting behaviour.

Baffled as well but I was worried like i said after the purchase of the project

Asimpleinvestor.

Do you think they will already have a very good idea of the resource by now?

Asimpleinvestor & IfIknew,

Thank you. Very good feedback.

HE1 now has the results of both tests. Now they will need some time to do their calculations and provide some feedback. Calculations usually take several weeks from 3-8 weeks normaly.

HE1 has two weeks before the ML and they need to do the calculation in two weeks. Questions

1. Is it possible to do it in 2 weeks?

2. If it is would they be accurate enough? What are the drawbacks?

Would appreciate replies from anyone with exprience on the timing and process.