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Liquid1 "So about 300p for 50billion asset??"
The asset doesn't count for much after a specific point as you can only sell a small part of it every year. It will count a lot if there is a buyer that plans to buy HE1.
As far as we know helium is generated in that area and there is a potential of "infinite" resource. This would not make the SP infinite. Would be lovely though :-)
I agree with Steve58.
Its complicated. There are some companies like Tesla that are massively overvalued based on their share.
These are my calculations but of course feel free to add any comments
Helium global market is 10billion per year. DM said they want to cover only what the US used to supply which is around 20% (but more likely will supply more 30%).
This is a turnover of 2 billion. We know its very cheap to extract Helium in our case so a 15% profit would be small. With a P/E of 10 would value the company at 3 billion. Based on 620m shares would give you approximately £4.8 per share.
If you take into account that this is a strategic resource then it might go higher.
This price would be after building the factory. Before that it would be a bit less as the factory is cheap to build. I expect the price to be £2.5-£3 after appraisals and increase steadily to £4-£5 once the factory is build.
If you assume 60m per day from the 19th June, that drilling started, then its 20 days for 1200m. This depth would be reached this Friday :)
So a lot of estimations point to either sides of this weekend
PS: Should I wish good weekend to everyone or that would be premature?
Taken from their website.
"We plan to invest with partners who have access to relevant, pre-existing technical data, which allow projects to be proven up and fast-tracked to commercialisation. Helium Ventures will deploy its sector specific knowledge to assist its partners in streamlining and accelerating their extraction programmes."
Means they will act as consultants and help extraction companies to speed up the process as they have experience through HE1
"Through investing across a range of geographical and geological play types, Helium Ventures plans to build a low-risk portfolio."
Means they will invest in some companies too
The question is how many companies there are there?
Might not be water. They used nitrogen to extinguish it.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fire-offshore-pemex-platform-gulf-mexico-under-control-2021-07-02/
I was looking into UKOG sometime ago. When I saw it has to do with Turkey I was put off instantly. So before I continue I want you to know that don't know anything about them.
Erdogan is desperate for good news as the economy in Turkey has been declining rapidly for years. Erdogan would support 110% any effort that might boost the economy in any way which is good. BUT because he is desperate he will support even someone that dreamed about oil. Turkey purchased research vessels for this specific reason and they are using them as the solution to every economic problem they have. So they will drill everywhere. I am worried that they will drill even in swimming pools. So please if it has to do with Turkey do proper research on the quality of the drill information.
SpeculativePunt
I agree with your statement but I would place that as a minimum.
If I remember well they said a discovery would derisk the rest, so there is a potential up to £1.33.
This is before appraisals
Unless I understand it wrong
Just to remind you all. DM cannot release any information by any means other than an RNS that would affect the share price.
So don't try to analyse any details other than the tone.
If he releases an RNS at 400m (either positive or negative) it needs to be detailed as it would affect the SP massively. A detailed RNS would take time. By that time they would have reached 1200m. So I think he is waiting to have the complete picture before announcing any results. From the tone of the interview I think they already have something and expecting a lot more.
Mike
My opinion is that they have found something and are certain that they have a discovery now and probably a better one at 1200m. Reporting the first find will distract everyone. DM would have to write a complete report with all the details while more new information would be coming that probably would make the existing information obsolete. Then he would have to do it again for 1200m. So they will write only one RNS and while DM is giving all the interviews etc.. the rig will move to a new position for drill two. I think they want to drill everything to have a complete picture and present it once without overloading us with information. Its not simple to write an RNS as you have to follow regulations and it will take time.
I know that for us any good news would do but for them its not the same and you have to see it from their point of view.
Just my opinion.
I don't know if it is relevant but when HE1 first announced that they have a show at 70m the SP dropped 7-10%. The days after skyrocketed to 27p. I don't know if there is a relevance here. Anyone shed any light?
Asilad
At 70m its not a discovery. It is just positive news. He wants to announce a discovery. At 400m the news probably are positive but not at the level that he wanted ie not enough pressure.
With the information that they already have during drilling they will have a very good idea of what to expect at 1200m.
This company doesn't do half measures or rushed. If they were, they would have started drilling years ago with half the information. The will get all the information analyse it and present it so it withstands all the scrutiny it can get. The same thing happened with the 5 years of research before the drill. Like a well written paper prepared for a conference. Its an academic approach.
NS
LittleRed
I didn't want to undermine anything that he has achieved. He is not were he is by mistake. My point was about quotes. I am not a fan of them :-)
There are so many for every case.
As for the comment that we cannot claim to have 1% of what he has achieved, this is true!!
but... we are catching up*!!! Hahaha
* based on successful HE1 drilling.