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Pairech interesting that you listed a bunch of countries that human life should be valued but omitted Ukraine. And yet Ukraine is where Russian are killing Ukrainians. You either have morals or you don’t.
So GKP is down 18%. If this roughly equates to time
GKP shut-in the this would be about 68 days. Is it really possible that the pipeline will be shut for this long. Seems like an overreaction. Interest Genl only down 6% ish.
Ahh that’s better with the Ax filter on.
Haha indeed Indrid. Not going to bother wasting time on AX. Where is the filter button
Arx not sure if you have noticed but NATO is not actually fighting in Ukraine. Ukraine is using old spares from NATO stocks and has been taking back it’s terrority. But hey if you want to believe this is what success for Russia looks like then you go with it.
Eh? Russia has Ukraine crushed? They’re doing great trying to take Bhakmut a tiny town with little importance. Strongly recommend you sell as this stock is clearly not for you.
Amx not sure you are reading the news. Russia is a pariah state with it’s leader wanted by ICC. Turkey is still part of NATO. Iran still has massive sanctions due to it’s missile program. Of course China is trying to play games but everyone still knows they are a one party police state.
Reading the news. The arbitration awarded Iraq $1.4bln from Turkey. Presumably this can only be because Turkey had over charged Kurdistan for use of pipeline or had somehow pilfered oil without paying Iraq or KRG. At the time KRG had a weak negotiating position so will have agreed to Turkey’s demands or turned a blind eye to their pilfering. So can’t see how Turkey could pass this cost onto KRG.
Originally, Iraq demanded $33bln so Turkey seems relieved that only got $1.4bln fine. Turkey might challenge it some more but not in their interest to block oil. Turkey is not saying that we don’t want to pay so will block oil. Their position seems to be waiting for Iraq to say when happy for oil to flow.
All this suggests the delays are down to technical monitoring issues. Maybe am being too optimistic. Should know within a day or two.
ValS yes I think you are correct. For years now political risk has been cited as the number one issue with GKP. Once this issue gets resolved this risk will be gone. All parties want GKP to invest and develop the field.
With this risk gone and FDP agreed and steaming ahead then what will GKP be worth?
A reminder. Iraq won it’s case against Turkey regarding who controls oil flowing through Ceyhan.
Presently 400kpbd of Kurd oil and 70kbpd of Iraq oil is blocked. Turkey position is saying OK Iraq tell us what you want to do. Some of this will come down to details regarding how data is monitored and who controls what. Both Baghdad and KRG have stated that oil flow will be jointly monitored as will cash in the bank. All parties will be desperate for revenue esp. Turkey after the quake. Can’t see who benefits from stirring up arguments and bitter feelings. My hunch is that the old adage that oil always finds it’s way to market will prevail.
Can’t see how the pipeline ruling changes anything with GKPs PSC. Maybe the whole KBT pricing has something to do with Baghdad imposing it’s will, could view it as some kind of tax.
Again it’s not it Baghdad’s interest to punish IOCs. They are going to need investment going forwards. Russia is about to go bankrupt so not a likely future force. China is facing ever greater sanctions risk should be wary.
Definitely a hold and a buy for those with strong stomachs.
Arams. Iraq has just won the ruling. Clearly they want KRG to agree something in the O&G. It may be to do with who pays Turkey’s bills. Turkey have switched off the pipe because they want clarity on who will pay as they now know who is in charge.
Turkey has suspended the oil because it is waiting for permission from Iraq to continue. Iraq has just approved a federal budget for KRG. They need to sell oil to make money to pay. Iraq have no reason not to give their approval. Once they do then can read that new O&G law is pretty much agreed. This is good news as can finally see the path to stability.
Curious to see what the impact on POO will be with 470kbpd taken off the market.
Timing is interesting. Feels all orchestrated to manage the transition from KRG to Baghdad to control flow of oil. My guess is that this is the preamble to an O&G law being announced. Noises from both sides is that they are agreed and not arguing.
Arax I think they will be paying more than today’s 25m dividend. With 118m cash and KRG late on 76m then my guess is they decided to be very cautious. If they paid 50m and KRG still didn’t pay then cash balance would be down to 68m.
Given how bad KRG are then on balance prefer that they are being cautious. Also they can cut capital spend if cash gets too low.
I think this is as close as GKP can get to throwing its toys out of the pram with KRG. There is a chance they will pay the 76m balance in one lump and then issue a lot of we are really sorry messages.
Finally GKP has hit 55kbpd. It’s been a long time coming but does demonstrate the potential of the field is real and not bs. Going forwards this represents a 13% increase on 2022 average.
$25m divi is good but conservative. Message is clear that there is a big argument going on in the background. GKP want to invest in field but KRG are slowing things down by not paying on time. KRG non payment is probably explained by Baghdad not paying KRG in the federal budget. But all this looks like it’s being cleared up with the new O&G law and recent agreements.
Here’s hoping GKP management are tough negotiating on the KBT and PSC for the new FDP. KRG have shown that they cannot be trusted with much.
So it seems GKP is holding on to capital in anticipation that FDP is approved very soon and can race to 85k.
All the elements are in place for GKP to take off. Just needs the catalyst which is probably for KRG to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
Bets on size of divi tomorrow. My guess $50m with $25m deferred.
This is really positive news. Means that Oil and Gas law is almost certain to be approved. Which means FDP will be approved. And KRG will put pressure on pumping more. Which means they may concede on some areas. If the the path to 85kbpd is a lot clearer than finally will see a SP catalyst. It’s been a long time coming.
Capex guidance is given as $160m for 2023. But $90m is linked to getting from 60kbpd to 85kbpd and the FDP. While FDP is not approved have to assume this money is not being spent. So can assume $6m capex month. Also production should be gradually increasing to and over 50kbpd. If correct can see cash heading over $185m with the next payment. Basically means that move to 85kbpd is self funding and GKP will have a lot of spare cash. Unlikely they will diversify. So a $50m or $75m div is reasonable to expect. Would still leave $100m cash.
I make it $151m net cash 31st Dec 2022. 185 was an error mixed up with another stock