Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
Turkey aiming to be a strategic petro hub makes a lot of sense.
So in summary you have assessed the risks but do not believe they are high enough to sell the stock. The 'obvious' positive outcome you believe in is that the oil will flow and for this reason you remain a holder and are not panicking. Thanks for confirming. Lol.
Just a reminder the title of the post is 'Placing in a Couple Weeks'. This is nonsense and have to question motives behind making this post.
Some posters seem to be in a permanent state of panic. So have to question their motives.
Why is asking 'what is the positive' outcome a dumb question? If your claimed investment is based on deep analysis then there must be a positive outcome. Why can't you state what that is?
If you hold then you must believe in a positive outcome. What is that positive outcome?
As a non investor why is BB so concerned? What motivates to write when have nothing to hold or buy? Very dubious agenda?
In the presentation the Board did not talk about placing. They mentioned that there was an extreme risk in the event that all local sales were stopped and and in that event they would reduce capital spending to increase capital by up to 2ml. So BB comments are scaremongering and have not been supported by Board comments. With 80m in cash there is virtually no risk. More to the point is whether BoD will pay KRG given they are owed 150m. Based on comments it seems likely they will not be paying KRG as they are being paid cash in hand and have little obligation to pay. KRG have not said they are challenging this and are fearful of a UK court case.
Putup are you sure you are invested in GKP. All your commentary has a negative slant which suggests you are not a holder.
Interesting article in Middle East Eye spelling out the dispute between Turkey and Iraq.
Seems Iraq jumped the gun to make a claim for the 1.4bln ICC award. But have missed the detail which Turkey have put forward explaining that when the full ICC is taken into account going back to 1973 then it is Iraq that actually owe 900+m to Turkey.
All of this should have been settled out of court. Dumbest thing is that Iraq has blocked the oil and revenue damage of 5bln. The Iraq lawyers should be fired for sheer incompetence.
Given the appalling history of Iraqis against Kurds this just rubs salt into wounds.
Even if the court case proceeds the pipeline should be opened immediately to max revenue and payments handled based on what is settled. Surely common sense should prevail.
The discontent in Kurdistan against Baghdad is heading towards boiling point. Baghdad needs to get its act together fast or this will get worse. Kurds still want independence. Who can blame them. They also know that their oil fields are their ticket to freedom and will never allow Baghdad control.
IC have stuck with Buy rating. Acknowledge risk but cash flow has been stabilised while wait for pipeline opening.
And if they have a liquidity problem they can reduce their OpEx by 2m.
There are a lot of naysayers on this site who clearly are not LTHs and have other agendas.
Pipeline will be open soon. JH was very confident on this point. Loss of $5bl means everyone is a loser.
In the meeting today they said current sales at 23kbpd makes them cash flow positive. They are earning over $7m a month. Which is above their Opex of $6m.
Agree overall the CEO sounded very positive. The immediate risks have been managed through local sales. There is a lot of competition to buy GKP's crude so can expect more than 23kbpd sold. Even up to 44kbpd. GKP are cash flow positive, they are not going bust. And CEO nearly let slip that pipeline will be open very soon. Overall he's done a good job in a tough situation.
Yes question of being paid when pipeline is opened was addressed. Relations with KRG are good and they meet very often. Seemed very confident that these issues will all be sorted out soon.
No selling to locals is not the new Business As Usual. The Board said as much today. As soon as the pipeline is open they will start exporting.
Key points picked on:
- Going concern risk reported by Reuters is not valid. This would be risk if there was no production.
- GKP are already cash flow positive with 23kbopd
- Trucking operation could go up to 44kbopd
- There is high demand for GKP crude in local market
- Stated that Erdogan is expected to visit soon which supports the various news reports
- Stated could get back up to 55kbopd within 4 to 6 weeks
Overall more positive than had anticipated before today's annoucement. Remains a hold for me and possible buy on dips
Management should be brutally punished with no pay and forced to buy millions of shares.
Will be interesting to see the deal that GKP has been struck with KRG. If SOMO are covered with 20kpd and the rest can go to local dealers who may be able to sell internationally then the cat is out of the bag. Getting instant payment is a big deal in this corrupt region. Also heavy crude is in big supply.
In the meantime KRG can block water supplies from Turkey to Southern Iraq citing the need to check water quality and pollution damage from chemical weapons residue.
Not a lot of comment here today about the PSCs being honoured by KRG. Given all the talk about Baghdad cancelling PSC this is a big update.
Also Dana getting paid is a big deal. Clearly have chunks of cash lying about to pay out. They will be keen to remain investor friendly for when the pipe opens. And want IOCs to keep investing capital even during this closed period. Let's see if GKP gets a chunk of cash. Clearly with the local sales some kind of horse trading is going on.
Hard to say what happened to take the price down to 80p. On balance it does look like an effort to meet a large order and so hit the stop losses. Given this happened a day before Dana news and knowledge of GKP news smells a bit like insider trading and probably warrants investigation. Hope GKP management raise with FCA.