Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
KRG have never said they wouldn’t change the PSC. That’s a fabrication. They are desperate to get to 80kbpd.
Finally the IC boys have come off the fence. Now rate GKP a buy. Target 300p. They’d a bit slow. lol
The FDP and PSC are intertwined. If KRG are baulking at capital cost then can renegotiate a new PSC. Now Russia oil is a no go zone for next 20 years then all eyes will be on Kurdistan.
Spot on Stray. Of course the capex is shared. Message to KRG is loud and clear. You have been terrible at paying on time and essentially getting interest free cash for a long time. No-one is going to spend a billion with this kind or risk. If GKP was serious about doing this on it’s own then we would not be giving away massive dividends. So if you want to pump a lot more need to strike a better deal either with us or with a new player. Otherwise we’ll hit 55k and just keep returning cash. Ball firmly in KRG court.
Have to ask why GKP are offloading so much cash if they are planning to spend a billion in next 3 years to get up to 85bpd. Simple answer. They are not planning to do it. Someone else will. Expect a big deal to be announced.
Interesting point. KRG have not been a reliable partner. Not sure how spending a billion can be easily justified. Would be looking for significant changes to the PSC to derisk it. If GKP were serious about doing it on their own then they would be offloading 90k divis. The complexity spoken about here is less likely to be about drilling but more likely about the nature of a 3rd party deal or even selling off GKP. This is very much looking like Shaikan is being tarted up for the sale and in the meantime max cash is being returned to shareholders to compensate for their pain. All good for me.
My guess is yanks in Erbil are giving Baghdad a talking to get this moving. Expect a re-rate leading up to a sale.
This is getting silly. 90m dividend. Clearly no appetite for buybacks. FDP update is interesting. Needs 800m or over 3 years. But company is not stockpiling cash. And says it’s complex. Must mean a 3rd party deal is being discussed.
Excellent results. Aiming to be debt free by 2023. Hedging will wind down but 2023. Board proposes a buyback at the AGM of up to 15%. This is going to rerate. Esp with JP Morgan forecasting poo of 120. Time to buy is now.
Shorting gang are hitting GKP stock after dividend. With oil at 96 this should be pushing 250p. A simple hold will be rewarded.
Broad how’s you 50p forecast price coming along?
Will FDP approval be announced this week? Can GKP demand an increase in PSC years for major capital investment. It would be fair given the years lost due to warring instability. If I was BoD would insist on extra years for more cash. Otherwise no incentive to take new risk. Have KRG cornered themselves?
The FDP has been a long time coming. Too long for sure. But question is what will be in it? Will it be just 75kbpd or will they go for 110kbpd? Surely there must be a sense of urgency in KRG. Also there is the gas play. Expecting some big news soon. Sure GKP is only at 20% of earlier Mcap of $4bln. But really does feel as time has finally come for GKP to shine. With oil majors now desperate for access to major fields and being restricted from new drilling then anything could happen. Happy holder.
Up nearly 9% in a day. GKP is behaving like the old days. Confidence is back. Big players are ploughing in. All signs poo heading for 100+. FDP annoucement in next few days will push this to 300. May even get a bid now.
JMAX a lot of people saying POO is heading to 100+. Jeez wouldn’t be a shorter now. Terrifying
The trading update numbers are all based on POO at $63. But we are at $90. So should all number be traded up by 40%. End of year financials could be a cracker.
Stray you spell out the reason regarding buybacks. They can be bungled or have their true purpose hidden from holders. This board still has a very low trust quotient and so prefer cash in hand. It’s that simple
With no FDP and therefore no agreed major capital spend plan in 2022 what will GKP do with all the spare cash? Is it possible they will return 50m of cash as dividend every 3 months? Basically cash received from KRG is just sent straight to holders. It’s looking very likely. That would be a 40% dividend for 2022. Please no share buybacks.
The reason for the shorts has been risk of high debt. That is now under control. Also POO is only heading in one direction. OPEC and Russia can’t meet their own production targets due to lack of investment. Also Russia about to be cut off from world markets. This makes Tul a great investment. Buy the dips.
Spotted this share following Rosner in IC. Missed buying opportunity when stock jumped to 240p. Will loading up at these prices. Lovely
Theory based on your analysis hope you and putts have sold up today