The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
PUTUP hope you took Buffet's advice.
Yes it's very clear what they are up to. However can be useful to figure out what is going on behind the scenes.
Yep noticed Genel not reacting. Doesn't get the GKP treatment. Might be an opportunity for some.
Did someone say Walleye opened a short on 11th Sept? US based outfit. Wonder if they've woken up. Curious to see how they react if they get desperate to close.
Have to question why Turkey would make such a statement about the pipeline. If they are playing hardball they wouldn't say such a thing as it damages their negotiating position. It's a very clear signal. Barzani is acting as the middle man as he has to as biggest impact is on KRG.
Erdogan will visit when it's time for a photo op, smiles and handshakes.
There are a lot of legal cases flying around so it may take time. However, it's wrong to link it to the pipeline. Getting oil and cash flowing is more important to all parties so can go ahead before his visit. The legal cases can then melt away ready for Erdogan.
That's a very clear signal.
There was a big pow wow in Baghdad yesterday. There needs to be an agreement on Sunday. If they can agree then expect instruction will sent to Turkey to open. Turkey are saying they are ready to open so won't be able to use the damage excuse anymore. This is getting very close now. Real problem for shorters.
Indeed Putup. Wise words.
Buffet's advice springs to mind. Best time to buy is when there is blood on the streets.
Lot of chat going on about Iran's influence in Iraq and border disputes. Talk of Barzani writing directly to Biden about the issues. US will be very concerned about Iran getting involved given their bases in Kurdistan. Also US will be concerned about high poo impact on inflation. US has a lot of influence in the region including with Erdogan being in NATO. They don't want this to escalate so be interesting to see how they get involved. Imagine a lot of diplomatic phones will be worked in the next few days. One thing for sure about this region everybody loves haggle. But as always once the haggling is done a deal will be struck. Patience.
There is no mention of discounted placing in the RNS.
In the presentation JH explained in they would mitigate cost risks by reducing capital spend to preserve cash. However, this is not an issue now as they have local sales which are covering their running costs. Also KRG owe 151m and they have paid large chunks to oilers such as Dana. So as Directors they have highlighted risks and have taken steps to mitigate those risks. No mention of a placing.
Now less than sum of cash and money owed. They will be paid and the oil will flow. All other assets valued at zero.
More FUD from BB. GKP dumped their debt a long time ago. One of the few oilers that have no debt. And they are owed 151m. Still not clear if they have done a deal with KRG to keep all their local sales income so that money owed can be paid off.
High volume today. 10m buys 5m sells. Says it all really.
Doubt if KRG have allowed Iraq to control the border crossing.
Indeed the share price hammering does not reflect the update. There were no surprises and overall view is positive going forwards with some obvious risks. Be interesting to see if the Broker update their ratings.
Just speculating. Turkey don't seem too happy with Iraq at the moment. They keep taking them to courts and not doing a deal. Also wouldn't be surprised if Turkey has a keen eye on Kurd oil fields. Then there is the water issue where Iraq is dependent on both Kurdistan and Turkey for supply.
Wouldn't be surprised if trucked oil is already heading off to Turkey.
The rhetoric seems to be heating up between KRG and Baghdad. If Baghdad is refusing to pay salaries and won't open pipeline then wonder what's to stop KRG doing a deal directly with Turkey. Could simply state that Baghdad refuses to treat Kurds equally and sign a pact with Turkey and off they go.
BoD confirmed that clearing debt is top priority. Getting Jubilee up and running is major success. They stated can sustain production for very low future capital investment as majority of infrastructure is in place. Given that TLW was at 200p when had 5bl debt this is big turnaround and will transform into a money making machine. With oil heading towards 100 and production next year over 100bpd. Good opportunity to buy the dips.
FCF at 800m over 23 to 25. With Jubilee hitting 100bpd. TLW is in harvesting mode with poo over 90. This is a significant turnaround making TLW dirt cheap.