Member Info for flyer2020

Just putting it out here - I believe that a recession will be good for MCG. It will accelerate modal shift and even more importantly the greater slack in the labour market will enable MCG to finally resolve its driver shortages etc. Pay demands will soften. Then fares {mostly linked to gov contracts} can catch up and restore historical margins.

All, heavily invested here. I would like to manage expectations on the LHR cap. Removing the cap through the lean winter isn't necessarily a great thing for IAG because the cap itself gave IAG an excuse to cut otherwise unprofitable services they otherwise would have been mandated to fly on a 'use it or lose it' basis. Less capacity from rivals at LHR also helped somewhat. I like the fact that, overall, there is substantially less capacity than versus 2019 and particularly so much less low-cost-carrier presence bringing down yields (e.g. Norwegian long haul) coupled with existing mainline aircraft consisting of 777/787/A330/A350 across the IAG stable and Virgin/AA/DL/UA being much smaller than what was flown pre-pandemic (e.g. 747, A346, A388). Sure there are headwinds moving into the winter, but there will be industry casualties that will consolidate IAG's position further. So don't get emotional, and if you have the time then wait it out 18 months and you'll be handsomely rewarded for sure.

JTAN claims to be invested, but either he needs to relax fretting about the short term noise or he is a subtle de-ramper. Short positions are increasing, so we'll have many more 'one-hit-wonders' on here provoking fear and anxiety amongst the potentially weak-handed PIs. Stay strong and this will come good.

Brent crude down to $106

Look at Blackrock's record with shorting - they failed with Pets at home and Royal Mail in 2020...believe they are still underwater there. Very gutsy move shorting at these levels. Trust I the fundamentals and ride this through

Burning. Burning. Burning

Burn Shorts.....BURN

Shein now applying a 20 gbp handling charge for orders....feeling the pinch of the cargo restrictions due Russia overflight....bodes well for BOO

Yes, would rather buy towards the bottom than at the top. Certainly less risk at the bottom than top. The world's top investment banks certainly agree we are a long way from the top of ASOS potential price. Wouldn't want to be in banks or airlines right now. Even BP could suffer with its JV with ROSNEFT. So yes, I think ASOS is pretty safe.

We'll probably see a migration away from 'safe stocks' which are no longer 'safe' (e.g. banks, airlines) to shares which are truly safe like fast growing apparel companies with no exposure to Russia/Ukraine.

Hi everyone - who here was flying this weekend? One of the busiest weekend of the year and BA couldn't manage to deliver bags. Thousands of bags (including mine) piled up throughout the arrivals hall. How much is it going to cost BA to deliver these bags and pay compensation? Probably millions. Complete incompetence.

The closing of the supply chain crisis?
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

Global shipping price index back to pre-pandemic levels

Evidence?

The Ukraine tensions have a huge impact on IAG. It might soon be prudent to stop overlying Russia and then China, Hong Kong, Sydney etc are out of the question. Cargo to/from China is significant. Ukraine overlying restrictions also impact the Middle East and India flying program. Not good at all.

Couldn't agree more - there is a bullish story. People returning to office, eating out more, more parties...people will need new clothes...

Good we finished above 2100 which is a key support level. Barclays prefers us to BOO and THG is a basket case. Out of the crop, we seem like the safest bet. Blue skies

Great insight, thanks ragtrade, keep on sharing this knowledge as its invaluable. I'd like to connect outside this forum, given your knowledge, but don't know how it would be possible.

ragtrade, how are ASOS more vulnerable to shipping and lead time issues than BOO? ASOS have international distribution centres in USA and Europe, whereas BOO just have the UK. ASOS are therefore better protected than BOO, since BOO's challenge was higher international air freight costs between UK and USA to send garments at short notice to USA from their UK DC.

Partially agree, but if ASOS takes a % of the revenue inflated prices mean they accrue a greater cut. The issue, as you point out, is does this become negated by reduced bag size. The answer will be in expanding the number of partners they work with for partner fulfills.

No they aren't, because there is significant goodwill associated with the brands ASOS sell. For example, ASOS can command premiums for Topshop over Pretty Little Thing, in one instance. There is very difference in an Economy seat between Aer Lingus, Easyjet and BA from London to Belfast at 9am on a Monday. So airlines set prices in keeping with the market. A Topshop jumper could be 3x more expensive than a competitor, but with the right marketing is achievable