The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The tender details will be interesting. Might it be structured to cap shareholdings tendered I wonder. Eg so that larger %ages of small shareholdings are accepted, with smaller %ages accepted over a threshold.
Seems a v strong buy to me however it's structured.
Yes, time for common sense to make a long overdue comeback. Mustn't get ahead of ourselves but....
If a new sensible govt who'll give the permits does come in, BKY will need to update strategy. Maybe put the international arbitration on ice, and switch their efforts to appealing in the Spanish supreme Court the annulments of the regional and local authority licences. Time will be of the essence, Spain seems quite volatile atm, the legal processes take forever, with governments perhaps unlikely to last long. Get everything sorted before an unfriendly regime returns if possible.
Monday will be interesting when Sanchez is due to announce his intentions. I suspect he's frantically trying to work out if his missus' dodgy dealings could stick to him and finish him.
Https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-threatens-to-resign/
Here's a thought. Last 2 paragraphs of this suggest one scenario of Sanchez resigning and calling a snap election. PP is 8% ahead of the Socialists in the polls. A PP led nuclear friendly government if elected might then permit the BKY mine, later this year even. Wishful thinking maybe but not impossible.
Is it only the expectation that only a small %age of shares tendered would be successful that's holding this back? Seems like a strong buy to me, free money for shares successfully tendered, and with a current ca. 12% yield and much greater potential upside than downside for shares rejected in the tender, so a decent plan B.
Madinga's right to lament bureaucracy as the main hindrance to progress in the mining sector.
But sadly this conference has been largely hot air imo. No MDA and no MKA either.
https://times.mw/bank-chief-speaks-on-mining-bottlenecks/
More reasons for Spain's dodgy government to permit BKY's mine, act lawfully and stop cynically manipulating institutions like the CSN by appointing anti-nuke activists to the board to force unwarranted political goals.
https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2024-04-23/miners-ignore-softer-uranium-price-0
Given the increasing global recognition of nuclear energy's importance to energy security and decarbonization, the demand for uranium is forecasted at 338 million pounds in 2040, requiring the supply to double by then. (New mines needed).
The geopolitical situation in Niger has intensified in March. (Spain sources U from Niger)
Yes it still looks like Malawi's politicians are trying to kill the mining sector goose before it lays its golden eggs. High taxes, and mining's expected to resolve the forex crisis too. There's also talk of adding value processing ore in country prior to export, which doesn't sit comfortably with Pulawy.
The sensible voices urging cutting bureaucracy and moving quickly are on the sidelines. Malunga and Standard Malawi Bank for example.
I've only seen Lindian and Globe attending this forum. No sign of SVML Lotus or MKA. For the companies that could currently deliver on Malawi's mining aspirations (and supposedly about to get their MDAs) not to attend this flagship event speaks volumes imo.
What will MKA's strategic review conclude? Tough it out for a bit (how long for though), or cut losses and sell up to refocus perhaps exclusively on recycling?
Https://mwnation.com/malawi-dared-on-mining-potential/
At least they're talking about how important it is to get the MDAs done.
Https://times.mw/oil-prospects-high-minister-says/
Grain Malunga's comments here re mining in Malawi hit the nail on the head. Get him back into government.
Ormonde Mining PLC - Dublin-based natural resources company with assets in Newfoundland and Scotland - Says its 36%-owned investee TRU Precious Metals Corp intends to carry out an exploration project this spring and summer at its Golden Rose project in Newfoundland. Exploration will focus on assessing the critical minerals potential associated with the deposit-bearing Cape Ray-Valentine Lake Shear Zone. Executive Chair Brian Timmons says: "Not only does Golden Rose have high-grade gold discoveries along the same structures as nearby deposits, but it is also highly prospective for copper and other critical minerals. With a number of large gold companies seeking to diversify their exposure through copper, we believe this multi-mineral resource focus will make Golden Rose even more attractive for M&A in the future."
This mining conference is premature. I can't see any more MDAs appearing anytime soon. Globe are enthusiastic and attending (the only large scale project with an MDA under the new regime). But no other significant players seem very interested, hardly a vote of confidence. Lotus, SVML, MKA etc. Anyone aware they're engaging or attending? Looks like a turkey. The President should get "visibly angry" with his AG and the other ministers responsible for getting mining underway, but failing to deliver. Malawi will become a laughing stock for mining if it isn't already.
Good to see Monica making the right noises, commending the president and urging ministries to work together. Hope the AG's listening. There won't be much to talk about at the Mining Investment Forum without MDAs. Just tumbleweed blowing through a graveyard of ambition.
Https://times.mw/attorney-general-adamant-on-mining-agreements/
All part of the same regime, but the AG seems to be dragging his heels. The President and Mining Ministry seem keen. Can they get the AG in an armlock or something. Pressure needed. Little point Malawi pushing its mining sector without MDAs to enable mining.
Maybe one of the 5pps private placees reducing their existing shareholding (so as to maintain their pre placement %age perhaps) ahead of admission of the placing shares. Effectively £20k trousered on 2m @ 6p. Should pay for their round tonight...
Yes frustrating to say the least. The market's responded positively, for now. Perhaps it's relief BKY are finally going on the offensive. Maybe they should have done this 10 years ago when the then coalition (a similar make up to today's) bragged to Reuters they'd refuse to grant the permits regardless of illegality.
I suppose these new more aggressive legal tactics, or environmental necessity, or mounting political pressure might force the coalition to change tack and permit anyway. But for now we still have to endure Teresa and chums sploshing around playing their revolting potty games.
BKY need to tell us what the plan is. What will they seek in the arbitration? Specific performance orders compelling the government to permit, if that's even possible? Or just financial compensation? Chances of success? Timeframes? Why commence now?
I guess starting this arbitration was inevitable, perhaps triggered by the amnesty law passing last month, and the prospect of this government and its anti nuke policy lasting to the next election in 2027 and maybe beyond.
It'll cost a lot and take ages. BKY should win, but then there'll be the issue of enforcement. And even if a future friendly government permits in the meantime or later, its "price" for permitting would probably include BKY withdrawing the arbitration proceedings or giving up any award, with BKY bearing the costs. Costs ultimately may be irrecoverable, but arbitration is still probably the right thing to do now I guess.
What do you guys think?