Member Info for Florida

Sorcerer - They have to make up £2.4m additional profit. The trouble is they keep spending. They have just spent another £500,000 setting up this Genomics effort, that's £2.9m, and the undetermined additional profit from Covid although will undoubtedly and inevitably achieve that crucial breakthrough point, won't be enough to do it on this half year trading update IMV. I could tell you so much regarding this Break-even point, but I can't, and I can't even tell you why I can't, yet.

Break-even

Threeskins - I assume the £37k was yours. Of course none of my business but you may have been a little premature in your disposal for a number of reasons. You should have looked more closely at the link to the article posted by Masterblaster regarding the Lamp test at Heathrow Airport. Many countries such as "Greece, Cyprus, the Bahamas and Bermuda" embrace the PCR test purely on accuracy. Unless other forms of test match or improve on 99.7% that situation will not change.

My second point - don't expect too much from this half year update. It will produce great figures, high percentage forecasts, and the price might even rise for a short time then reduce back to present levels. Unfortunately, it will not contain whats needed to release it from it's institutional grip. in about 7 - 8 weeks time the company will however, be reaching a milestone that will change everything, including the share price, permanently. IMHO DYOR

This is just my opinion only, please don't act upon anything I say.

$26.5m in the bank seems about right to me. $25m required to complete P-1 only if Stenna decide to take payment in cash. If they take payment in shares, BPC will be fully funded for next drill. S-2 fully carried and nothing to stop P-1 and S-2 in-situ drilling simultaneous.

Two drills running side by side with total commitment and confidence from management and both service operators.

We should all recognise and acknowledge their money is just as much "at risk" on the successful outcome of Perseverance as ours.

It is also worth mentioning the appointed rig owner of Saffron-2 was so impressed with the outcome of Saffron-1, opted to take payment as a share of production, only if Saffron-2 is successful, making Saffron-2 fully funded.

Confidence and commitment on both points from all parties concerned.

Steve - Whatever you do don't sell before break-even. Would prefer sooner but Decembers looking good.

Just wondering when you think the MM's will start to run out of shares.

So our institutionally bias broker, we must assume, is still at 19p. Unless of course someone wishes to enlighten us to something different.

Master - do they rate us higher than 23p and lower than 25p?

Steve67 - that's it, thanks for that, can't access anything at the mo. Would love to find something from Stifel but seems to be untouchable info.

Hi Steve67 - thought there was something about options and warrants but can't check at the moment. All sounds good to me, roll on 39p. Has Stifel changed their rating yet?

Based on the new broker forecasts can we assume the new broker rating would be -

Allign - 29.5p
N+1 - 27.5p
Stifel - 19p?

P3t3r - It may sound a bit odd but having said "Revenue" a few times I really was thinking of profit.

By the way your link is broken.

Thanks Steve67 - that helps but does not answer the question "how much". What price would we get for the 500,000. To put you in the picture, 500,000 at £1 over three months to Xmas is just about the two million additional revenue forecast by the brokers. That means they have totally ignored our 10,000 per month capacity, "why". You could turn it around and estimate the 10,000 capacity is in fact not based on £42 per kit or anywhere near it to bring it level with their forecast. Then discount the 500,000 completely because they have no orders confirmed. That to me sounds more likely.

Jascott2510 - raised some good points but I think your estimate of £5 per test is way off, especially as the NHS in particular are looking to cut the costs. Having said that, an NHS contract would be very nice.

JAdam - Sorry, I would have replied earlier but do try to keep away from these boards as much as possible. Thanks for putting forward your view on the numbers. Can't say I agree at this point. There seems to be some confusion over what capacity exactly can be produced and the pricing for tests, kits and different products. I maintain it is not my understanding that 500,000, now mentioned numerous times by LR, are in reference to kits. They are tests, at what price and what product, nothing is clear. Kits as shown on the Caxton site contain a number of tests according to numbers required. If the total capacity is 10,000 kits as Allign has stated, we may have an additional capacity of 500,000 tests. Now that would be quite an increase in revenue for the year. But this just does not show in the brokers forecast. 10,000 per month alone would be £5m revenue per year or their about. An additional 500,000 tests would put us into orbit and it just does not show with the brokers and I can't see how they can be so far off the mark. One of us is clearly wrong. I'm hoping it's me.

Genny PJ - I agree the Nasdaq is a long term goal. They can't as yet get beyond break-even let alone afford the $500,000 yearly costs associated with the listing. However, the plan is to expand sales of covid in blocks of 10,000 per month, outside the core business production. No one knows exactly how this will be achieved, but if the intention goes to plan and break-even comes sooner than later, a year to 18 months down the road, the Nasdaq could be a serious proposition.

The spanner in the works is this brokers updated forecast. Taking into consideration we know we are producing capacity 10,000 per month from October, and that will continue through the next 12 months, that's 120,000 per year. That is the most we can produce ourselves. To increase capacity I can only assume they would have to use outside sources of production, this in tern would reduce the net profit earned. It does seem to suggest we are not earning anywhere near the figures Allign have suggested for Covid sales. If it was clear as to how we were to achieve this extra capacity, we could evaluate a clearer picture of how things will develop.

They intend to launch on the Nasdaq.

It's good that the significance of an RNS rather than a mere mention in a presentation shows the importance of the first entry into the US. Regarded as price sensitive information, let's hope the price today reflects it's importance.

If we find that orders have outstripped capacity we should be expecting a re-rate from Stifel in very near term after the presentation. Taking into account Stifel have neglected to include both the IONA nx and the Covid sales.