Member Info for fleccy

"I’m always dubious about claims of market manipulation but today I’m wondering if Fleccy is correct in his assertions of black arts in play.
I just wonder why regulators never look into a share that always goes down on news whether it’s good,bad or indifferent."

Retail is an easy target for the big players, since they can fight retail without taking on each other. Most retail trades are through brokers, and brokers have a choice to trade On or Off Exchange. If the mega players trade big, they'll do it Off Exchange to avoid affecting the On Exchange price. As I've said previously, Algo's can easily drive a stocks price, while volumes are low, and since bigger players, or brokers, have a choice to trade Off Exchange anytime they wish, the On Exchange price can be easily manipulated using Algo's, in my opinion.

"I wish that BT still had a USA listing, maybe this would stop the clear market manipulation that's going on here."

I'm glad they delisted in the US. In the US you get sued just because your share price drops, it's not worth the hassle and expense.
I just read an article on light reading and I have find some of Iain Morris's articles informative, but on this occasion I disagree with the picture he paints.
In the article he starts off with:

"An important figure likely to be overlooked in BT's quarterly results is that only about a quarter of homes covered by its shiny and expensive new full-fiber network have bought a service."

I read that as the people not transferring are happy with the current FTTC service, and want to keep their telephone line. Even if the customers in question stay with the same ISP, avoiding the stop sell as more exchanges are included, they'll lose their telephone service at the end of 2025 anyway, and at some point they'll be forced on to FTTP.

He goes on to say:

"It's vital because sources at Nokia, arguably BT's most important full-fiber supplier, reckon average payback on a full-fiber deployment takes between 12 and 14 years if this take-up rate is about 30% – not such an issue for investment funds with a long-term outlook but potentially off-putting to a dividend-paying telco."

BT will still be collecting revenue from FTTC, while customers are reluctant to transfer to FTTP, so BT wont lose out in that scenario. If I was running an investment fund, I wouldn't want my capital tied up for 14 years without a return, so I disagree with him on that too.

I didn't disagree with everything in the article, but the narrative was meant to be negative toward BT, with some careful omissions in respect of revenue from FTTC customers, just my opinion. Here's where he disregarded FTTC:

"Ignoring what BT calls "non-fiber" lines, its overall broadband take-up rate is about 63%. Even if new rivals saw only modest success, this figure would probably fall as customers opt for alternatives."

https://www.lightreading.com/broadband/fttx/bt-boss-says-uks-altnet-strategy-is-failing/d/d-id/779318

Generally pretty negative toward BT, and I found his description of BT's rollout a little contemptuous, when he used the words "shiny and expensive new full-fiber network" within a negative narrative. Much of Openreach's network wont see competition from Altnets, and many of the smaller Altnets will fall away due to lack of scale, and their geographic isolation from the bigger players will make a takeover unlikely.

Just to add to my last post, considering BT are looking at spending £4.8bn on FTTP an 5G in the current Financial Year, the forecast is really good in my opinion. The money BT is investing in FTTP and 5G isn't money down the drain, it's building valuable infrastructure the market seems to be ignoring.

"but i didn't like the look of the high Net financial debt and lease liabilities figures"

The lease liabilities will diminish as the exchange closure program progresses. Currently Financial debt is around £13.2bn, and lease liabilities around £5.7bn, so not exactly high considering BT's Revenue. Much is made of the Debt and Pension deficit, but both of those are manageable in my opinion. The pension will disappear as an issue over time, and the lease liabilities will reduce bringing down Net Debt.

"yeah, and i'll drop 5% more on ex-divi day"

That's uncertain, but a lower price is an opportunity for long term holders. The ones suffering today, are the ones who jumped in looking for a quick return on the results. My future dividends have just gone up on the back of the Lloyds dividend increase; I see the short term price of my holdings dropping as an opportunity to buy more stock, from dividend reinvestment, so it doesn't bother me when the market disagree's with my view.

"10p down on Q1 results against market expectations, very strange."

Indeed. The drops started with VMO2 TalkTalk speculative articles, with the shakeout continuing after these results. The market will say they were expecting better on the back of the price rises, but they conveniently ignore the investments in 5G and FTTP. There'll be another drop ex dividend, if the price doesn't recover in the meantime, but lower prices mean better opportunities for dividend reinvestment.
Telecoms is an underrated sector, but that won't last forever. My opinion, for what it's worth, is that players controlling the market are deliberately keeping Telecom stocks down, for their own reasons. If you look at the investment into Altnets, Telecoms must be seen as having a bright future, but you wouldn't think it looking at the stock prices of the established players.

"No change to FY23 outlook: Revenue growth, at least £7.9bn EBITDA, around £4.8bn capital expenditure and between £1.3bn-£1.5bn normalised free cash flow"

There was a slight increase in Financial Debt, but nothing dramatic. The market's have been shaking retail out of Telecom stocks for a long time. I'm confident in my view, so I will keep holding and reinvesting dividends where I see value.

"To summarise: running to stand still."

They're in the middle of a once in generations Network transformation, with big FTTP and 5G investment, I wouldn't describe them as standing still. Once FTTP and 5G rollout is completed, the reduction in costs will show on the bottom line.

"Fleccy get your facts right. Uncle Mikey is well hedged,fuel wise, in 2023"

My exact words were:
"If the macro situation doesn't change by next March, Ryanair's fuel hedging will lapse and they'll see a massive increase in the price of aviation fuel"

John they're hedged 80% up to March 2023 (FY23), that reduces to 30% for Financial Year 2024 (FY24). I wouldn't post something without checking my facts.

"FY24 fuel hedging increased to 30% (FY23: 80%)."

https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Q1-FY23-Results.pdf

This narrative about Ryanair wiping the floor with the competition is false in my opinion. If an Airline like AIG goes bust, the bondholders would move in, keep the business going, and decide whether to break it up or keep it running as a going concern. The shareholders in the competitor Airlines will suffer, but the competition will always be there. I agree the analysts sing Ryanair's praises, as the best run Airline, but the competition will always be there. €21 will probably happen at some point, but it could be years away.

"Key strategic developments:
Fibre build and connection continues at pace, beyond our expectations, with record quarterly FTTP build of 763k and net adds of 302k
Finalised our FTTP co-provisioning agreement with Sky
EE was voted best network by RootMetrics for the ninth year running and came top in every category measured; our 5G ready base is now at 7.7m
Price rises to support investment in the network and offset cost inflation; we have continued to raise awareness of our Home Essentials social tariff with prices frozen this year
Consumer churn and complaints remain low with high levels of service
BT Sport remains home of UEFA club competitions, including the UEFA Champions League, until 2027
The CMA1 approved the BT Group plc agreement with Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. to form a 50:50 sports broadcasting joint venture
Contingency plans in place to minimise disruption and keep customers connected during CWU2 strike action

Revenue and EBITDA growth, no change to full year outlook:
Revenue £5.1bn, up 1% due to improved pricing and trading in Consumer and Openreach, offset by the migration of a wholesale MVNO customer which concluded in FY22 and by continued legacy product declines and challenging market conditions impacting large corporate customers in Enterprise and Global.
Adjusted3 EBITDA £1.9bn, up 2% primarily due to flow through from revenue and continued strong cost control
Reported profit before tax £0.5bn, down 10% due to increased depreciation offsetting EBITDA growth
Reported capital expenditure down 17% to £1.3bn, due to prior year investment in spectrum; capital expenditure excluding spectrum payments up 24% to £1.3bn, primarily due to increased investments on FTTP build and provision, and cost inflation
Normalised free cash flow3 £(0.2)bn, down £162m primarily reflecting increased cash capital expenditure
Net financial debt (which excludes lease liabilities) was £13.2bn and net debt3 was £18.9bn at 30 June 2022, both £0.9bn higher than at 31 March 2022 driven by pensions contributions and lower cash flows
No change to FY23 outlook: Revenue growth, at least £7.9bn EBITDA, around £4.8bn capital expenditure and between £1.3bn-£1.5bn normalised free cash flow"

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/fy23/q1/q1-fy23-release.pdf

A €21 share price would value Ryanair at €23,838,854,088; Using your profit after tax figure of €1.235 billion, Ryanair would have a P/E of 19.8 which is very high even in good times. Taking everything into consideration, like the current path of the Ukraine war, and oil prices likely to stay high for the foreseeable future, DB's target price assumes perfect conditions and lots of goodwill within the Ryanair price. Ryanair haven't even issued a forecast for the current Financial year; If the macro situation doesn't change by next March, Ryanair's fuel hedging will lapse and they'll see a massive increase in the price of aviation fuel, so they'll have to increase prices to maintain margins. The Airline industry is still in hot water, with the temperature going up, Ryanair wont be immune to external factors.

"I see deutsche Bank have raised their TP to €15.50 with 2023 PAT figure of 909 million. Bloomberg have 2023 PAT figure of 1.12 Billion.
Davy have 2023 PAT figure of 1.235 billion..Should Davy PAT figure come to pass this will justify a SP in excess of €21 for Uncle Mikey per Deutsche B calculations.- 15.50/909 times 1235 = €21.06."

Lol, are you a Wizard John? That's a very Hocus Pocus calculation, more Disney+ than CNBC lol.

"The plan is good but like Davidphillips says the time for talking is over, management need to implement the plan and the numbers need to start to improve before a re-rate takes place"

They have been implementing the plan, it's all in their statements and results.

"LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Britain's BT (BT.L), fresh from bolstering its defences against a possible takeover bid, said on Monday it had delivered its annual 1 billion pounds ($1.37 billion) cost savings target 18 months ahead of schedule, driving its shares higher."

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/bt-hits-cost-savings-target-early-drahi-circles-2021-11-01/

“BT Group has again delivered a strong operational performance thanks to the efforts of our colleagues across the business. Openreach continues to build like fury, having now passed 7.2m premises with 1.8m connections; a strong and growing early take-up rate of 25%. Meanwhile, our 5G network now covers more than 50% of the UK population. We have the best networks in the UK and we’re continuing to invest at an unprecedented pace to provide unrivalled connectivity for our customers. At the same time we’re seeing record customer satisfaction scores across the business.
“We have finalised the sports joint venture with Warner Bros. Discovery to improve our content offering to customers, aligning our business with a new global content powerhouse. Separately, we have strengthened our strategic partnership and key customer relationship with Sky, having now extended our reciprocal channel supply deal into the next decade and agreed a MoU to extend our co-provisioning agreement.
“Our modernisation continues at pace and we are extending our cost savings target of £2bn by end FY24 to £2.5bn by end FY25. We delivered EBITDA growth of 2% this year as strong savings from our modernisation programme more than offset weaker revenues from our enterprise businesses due to well known market challenges.
“While the economic outlook remains challenging, we’re continuing to invest for the future and I am confident that BT Group is on the right track. As a result, we are today reconfirming our FY23 outlook for revenue growth, EBITDA of at least £7.9bn and also the reinstatement of our full year FY22 dividend, as promised, at 7.7 pence per share.”

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/2021-22/q4/q4-fy22-release.pdf

All the information's out there, you just need to look for it.

"Our interpretation of the results differs but again our opinion and interpretation is irrelevant as there are many full time investment managers that know far more and have better insight than us and sorry to say it but the market does not as you say, either doesn't see it or is choosing to ignore it."

A lot of what's happening now is very Deja Vu, in my opinion, it reminds me of the early 1990's when cash was ploughed into CATV, with most of the CATV companies suffering financial difficulties and taken over by C&W, then sold on to NTL.
CityFibre realise scale counts in wholesale, so they're trying to ensure survival when the gloves come off. I expect the small scale Altnets will struggle, with many probably too isolated geographically to attract a takeover by a bigger player, so that business will probably fall onto Openreach.
BT/Openreach are reducing the number of Exchanges by 4,600, from 5600 down to around 1000, so they will save money on lease liabilities which accounts for a third of the reported Debt; BT will also get a cut of the profits when Telereal Trillium sell the properties on, after repurposing.
Passive optical networks are by design low power systems, there's no central battery required to power telephone lines, like PSTN has to. The main components required for PON is OLT's at the Exchange, ONT's at customer premises, and the Fibre connecting them, without the requirement for street cabinets inbetween, except under rare circumstances.
PSTN is due to be switched off at the end of 2025, with around 25 million properties passed by FTTP by the end of 2026, so I expect most of the copper/FTTC customers will be migrated to FTTP within a couple of years after 2026.
BT say they're on track to save £2,5 Billion annually, by the end of 2025. PSTN is power hungry, and Geographically inefficient, so the move to FTTP will save BT/Openreach shed loads of cash off their power bill. Fibre is more resilient than copper, so less Engineering activity required on the access network, giving more money savings. With the PSTN switch off, the core network will deal with everything, Voice and Data, so much less diversity of Network Equipement's, so a smaller more focused Network Engineering team.
In summary BT will have a smaller property footprint, a more efficient multi functional Network, a smaller Engineering force, and save loads on their energy bill. BT have said they'll save £2,5 Billion annually by the end of 2025, how much might they be saving annually by 2035? The market is supposed to be forward looking, I'm surprised they don't see what I see.

"All the so called super new management that have been brought in over the years apart from linning there own pockets have not improved BT and in some areas actually for all there talk done nothing to improve Bt, the share price shows this as correct.
BT can be viewed as work in progress, not a dead duck or a great company with lots of opportunity, its a struggling company in dept that given a good new management team that would take control and not just talk , line their pockets and sit back could be a great company and investment."

First off it's debt, not dept, but that's irrelevant because I know what you meant. The debt isn't as big a problem as the vested interest media would have us believe, and the pension deficit is reducing.
Openreach is heavily regulated , so much so that OFCOM pretty much dictate pricing policy. Revenue has declined in large part because of regulation, but BT's strength is in its ability to cut costs. If you'd followed the company statements and results, you'd realise FTTP in conjunction with convergence to IP/Cloud will save BT billions every year. I actually think Jansen's doing a fantastic job, within the regulatory restrictions, the market either doesn't see it or is choosing to ignore it.

"But since 1996, had reported annual profits between -£700m and £2.8bn. Even ten times the top end, which was rarely met, sees BT fairly priced."

BT FY23 EBITDA is forecast to be at least £7.9bn, BT is a cost cutting play rather than a growth play. As a heavily regulated company BT's revenue has been edging lower, but they will be be massively reducing the number of Exchanges going forward, and simplifying the access network infrastructure leading to big reductions in operating costs, once FTTP and 5G is completed.

"Not sure why its of national interest for stakes to be referred to when electricity and water amongst other utilities are owned by foreign companies/governments and that is ok!"

Because Electricity and water isn't used to carry sensitive information over long distances. Fiasco's like the Edward Snowden leaks, highlight the national security differences between communications providers and other utilities.

"The UK big major banks have an average reporting results day "trading range " of over 5%, a statistic that will have not gone unnoticed by short - term day traders."

How does that affect the Buybacks?
On Friday 3,616 were bought back, within a total volume of 105.003022 Million shares, on Wednesday 174 shares were bought back within a total volume of 280.399425 Million shares.
There was over 9 million shares purchased on Monday, but the buybacks dropped off a cliff on Tuesday with only 34 shares bought back within a total volume of 162.523267 Million shares traded.

Monday 9,477,467 bought back, total volume 133.752465 Million (7.1%)
Tuesday 34 bought back, total volume 162.523267 Million (Near 0%)
Wednesday 174 bought back, total volume 280.399425 Million (Near 0%)
Thursday 20,432 bought back, total volume 171.479713 Million (0.012%)
Friday 3,616 bought back, total volume 105.003022 Million (Near 0%)

Overall, for the week, 9,501,723 bought back within a total week volume of 853,157,892 shares traded, so 1.114% bought back of total traded shares last.

I'm not saying there's anything wrong in the figures, I was just curious about the history.

Apparently Vertical farming uses approximately 784 kWh / Year per metre squared of Romaine Lettuce crop. Other crops, like Strawberries, use more at around 1,405 kWh / Year per Sq M.

Bitcoin consumes an estimated 150 terawatt-hours of electricity annually.

So if they dropped Bitcoin and used the electricity for Vertical farming, they could grow around 192 Km squared of crops per year; Which is a larger area than Brussels with an area of 161 Sq Km.

"Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, currently consumes an estimated 150 terawatt-hours of electricity annually — more than the entire country of Argentina, population 45 million. Producing that energy emits some 65 megatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually — comparable to the emissions of Greece — making crypto a significant contributor to global air pollution and climate change."

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/05/04/cryptocurrency-energy/#:~:text=Bitcoin%2C%20the%20world's%20largest%20cryptocurrency,of%20Argentina%2C%20population%2045%20million.

Vertical farming is also carbon efficient, since plants convert carbon dioxide while growing.

What's the point of Bitcoin, or Crypto currency? It's slow to transact, super volatile, not even a good substitute for payment apps like Mpesa, used in Kenya. Maybe the money being directed at Crypto should be diverted into vertical farming, at least it would do some good, and the crooks could transact in Lettuces and Strawberries instead.

Just catching up with some posts.

"A paltry 3616 shares bought back today? The cynical side of me thinks they are expecting the SP to tank when half year results are published on Wednesday next week so holding back."

Hardup, have you collated all the buyback figures into a list? if you post them I'd be interested to see the buyback history.