Member Info for fleccy

The core network will be Router Switches, connected via DWDM, dealing with everything, so Voice, Video, and Data; Even the mobile network will be converged into the cloud. Obviously the transformation will mean a reduction in staff at all levels, with better paid jobs for the ones who adapt to the new required skill sets. I suspect BT are building up their core router network now, in preparation for PSTN switch off, and possibly training staff to ensure they have the required skills.

"Openreach/BT must be modernised, not just the bottom but middle manager, top managers and boss to see they are giving value for money."

That's what the move to FTTP/Cloud convergence is about. 10years from now BT will be a different business. All the PSTN and Copper will be gone, with the access network mainly consisting OLT's, ONT's, and the Fibres connecting them. The core newtwork will be Router S

"John Malone along with euro sport, itv, discovery and Warner brothers has first dibs on BT sport. paramount obviously already owned by Comcast."

John Malone is an independant director at Warner, but it's probably irrelevant as far as Warner's forward strategy's concerned. BT Sport will become a streaming service, like Eurosport & Discovery. The new company will likely do deals with all intersted broadcasters, to offer a subscription service, whether that be Sky, VMO2, or whoever. Sky is already offering streaming services through products like Sky Glass, and this appears to be the model all boadcasters are moving too. I expect all content will eventually arrive via brroadband streaming, with satellite and terrestrial RF broadcasting wound down over time. The current TV broadcastingFrequencies will probably be used for other uses, once free. It will probably be a decade away before we see the end of RF TV broadcasting, but I expect it will happen.

"So in 10 years the build will have been funded by CPs and not BT essentially"

Erik, you seem to think of BT in the same terms I do. I must admit I hadn't thought about CP's funding the Fibre rollout, but I think you're correct.

Openreach Revenue to 31 March 2022 £5.441 Billion
Openreach External Revenue to 31 March 2022 £2629 Billion
Openreach Operating profit to 31 March 2022 £1.303 Billion

I assume that External Revenue is what comes in from CP's, which appears to be increasing currently, but may drop off slightly due to the Equinox offer.
BT's goal is to cover 26 million premises by the end of 2026, and interestingly Openreach will do a Year 6 Equinox review in April 2026, where they could amend rental charges and Average Revenue Per User share level by up to £1.50/month. BT have costed the FTTP rollout at around £15 Billion, it isn't a stretch to imagine Openreach's external revenue over a 10 year period, would more than cover the cost of the rollout.

"Company’s like Trooli aren’t setup to try and compete with BT, they are setup to be bought out & then their little piece of network will be used to compete with BT."

I don't disagree with you on that one Aus, many of the smaller Altnets won't have the scale to profit in my opinion. They have to be careful where they build though, as a prospective purchaser would look at the distance from their own build areas, too far and the backhaul costs would become excessive; Also to profit from buying the smaller Altnets, the bigger player would have to factor in Engineering and integration costs. The small Altnets around urban areas will be overbuilt by CityFibre, VMO2, and Openreach anyway, with the small rural Altnets possibly at the most at risk of failing. I think the problem for the smaller rural Altnets is that once Openreach overbuild them, it isn't BT they're competing against, it's all the ISP's who use the Openreach network.
This article sums things up pretty well:

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2022/05/ofcom-and-bt-reportedly-prep-contingency-plans-for-altnet-flops.html

Thanks, I found the article. It was aimed at publicising the Joint Venture, but the author still managed to slip Sky and TalkTalk into the story. Nothing new in the article, except for the mention of InfraVia which I'd seen mentioned in other articles anyway.
Something I find a bit contradictory, is the articles saying they'll use VMO2 staff and expertise to build out the new JV fibre network, but you'd think they'd be tied up replacing the current legacy DOCSIS network with FTTP, which VMO2 have also put on their to do list. It'll be interesting to watch all this unfold in years to come, the articles make it all seem so easy.

"Another Telegraph article with VM02 propaganda in today’s edition.Includes inference that SKY will look at leaving BT and go to VM as wholesaler."

Can you provide a link? Can't find the story, not that I'd be able to read it since I don't subscribe.

No doubt it'll find its way into more media tomorrow. BT just confirmed in their results, that they've "Finalised our FTTP co-provisioning agreement with Sky", so that contradicts the Sky/VMO2 story.

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/fy23/q1/q1-fy23-release.pdf

I expect it'll still affect BT's share price, even though it's speculative rubbish.

"What makes you wake up 50% drop? unthinkable for a major blue chip company, all the red flags should be raised."

Karak, which red flags do you see? I'm interested to read your analysis.
If you're saying the share price dropping is a red flag, well it's been a lot lower; In October 2020, the share price dropped below £1, and then recovered up to over £2 toward the end of June 2021, then it dropped to around £1.37 in October 2021, and staged yet another recovery to reach nearly £2 mid February this year, and has since dropped again. Some of the drops were blamed on the performance of Global and Enterprise, within the results, but other drops have been on the back of speculative articles.

3rd October 2021 The Telegraph printed an article about Sky being involved in a joint venture with VMO2, other outlets reported the following day.

https://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/sky-reportedly-plans-to-invest-in-vmo2-fibre-build-out/

The Sky/VMO2 speculation knocked over 7p off the share price immediately, and the price dropped another 16p over the following 3 weeks.

15th July 2022. The Daily Telegraph releases a story about VMO2 bidding for TalkTalk; That knocked nearly 15p off the share price by close.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2022/07/virgin-media-o2-uk-offers-3bn-in-talktalk-broadband-merger.html

The most recent news about the Liberty/Telefonica/Infra Fibre JV isn't really new news, and it was released on the day BT workers were striking.

Over the last few years there's a pattern of news stories being released and BT's share price taking a hit, sometimes around the results, other times with speculative articles involving VMO2 or CityFibre. The share price then recovers over time. UK stocks, popular with retail, appear to be underperforming the wider market, why is that? It isn't a stretch to believe that the UK retail investor is being gamed by the big players, to shake out a good percentage. BT's rollercoaster ride is a classic example of how to wear down investor sentiment, and shake out all but the most determined holders. Maybe Friday's drop was a good example of capitulation with subsequent recovery, dropping 7p and then slowly recovering throughout the day, but still well below the day high.
These stories pop up and the price takes a hit, but it appears there was no substance behind the Sky story, and we'll see if the TalkTalk speculation has any substance, which I very much doubt.

"It shows a degree of dunning-Kruger. I’d suggest out of control dunning-Kruger syndrome. You should get some help with that."

Aus your posts show a degree of chuntering-fubar, I'd suggest chuntering-fubar syndrome. You should get some help with that.

"Fleccy - oh & there I was thinking we were talking about the previous virgin media wholesale discussions & the potential for sky and others to use it"

It's all part of the same story as far as I'm concerned. You have a history of accusing me of talking nonsense, yet I was right about Sky and I'll likely be correct about VMO2 not taking over TalkTalk too. Your entry last October says it all; You claim to be a BT shareholder, yet you talk BT down at every opportunity while talking VMO2 up, what's wrong with that picture?

"Fleccy - Vodafone has very little backhaul. Almost all their services backhaul on Bt/Openreach networks."

In outlying areas, i agree, but areas like Greater Manchester, Liverpool, London, Birmingham, etc, etc, they have their own fibre networks and offer backhaul connections for customers. I know, because up to 2010 I did some work in colo areas, commisioning 100mb and 1Gb connections through Adva media convertors, connecting to Dslam's. I left the field around 2010, so I don't know what's out there now.

"Obviously, for sky to use a Virgin wholesale product, Virgin first need a wholesale product….. oh wait, VM O2 announce a wholesale product & you think you’ve been proved right.
Honestly, cracks me up."

Aus, you know very well that the previous discussions were in relation to Sky being a partner in a joint venture, not about Sky becoming a wholesale customer. in fact you went further:

06 Oct 2021 05:29 you said,
"now COMCAST are involved, I think they will have that cable doctrine. Moving SKY services to VMO2 for them won’t be about wholesale, it will be for SKY becoming more “like a cable company” with a mobile arm O2
SKY has a John Malone prodigy ex Virgin Media COO in charge now, this is no coincidence, writing could be on the wall.
Would not surprise me if deal already done, where COMCAST take over SKY cable, formally known as VMO2 after the dust settles
Any disruption they can cause to the incumbent in the mean time, will be what cable companies have always done. Same for other companies like Vodafone, talk talk etc they will all want to damage incumbent too."

What cracks me up Aus, is the way you try an rewrite the narrative to suit.

Ben Woods of the Telegraph also reported around the same time, look what's happened since.

"Sky closes in on broadband investment deal with Virgin Media O2
The plan is set to challenge BT’s dominance by upgrading 14m homes and businesses to ultrafast broadband"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/03/sky-closes-broadband-investment-deal-virgin-media-o2/

No doubt dividend hunters looking for a good entry price couldn't resist the drop. It was a non sensical move down anyway, as it's just an update on old news.

"Fleccy - no I don’t agree with your analysis. I’ve already said, debt isn’t a problem. If your business model has always revolved around too much debt & been a successful strategy, it’s not necessarily a consideration"

Well we'll see who's right in a year, or so. I was right about Sky, i'll likely be right about this too.

"Hi Nige, At the moment. I agree, VOD may need it more, if they want to expand & try to match other offerings."

If I'm being honest, I don't see a case for Vodafone purchasing TalkTalk either. Vodafone own the old C&W network, so they probably provide backhaul services in competition with BT. Vodafone don't need TalkTalk, they could target the customers if they want their business.

"Fleccy, you’re jumping the gun again. Of course they can still buy TT. You need to research John Malone, he feeds on debt. (He’s like a big boy Drahi), who also does his best work restructuring debt.
You really need to stop going off half ****ed. & BTW all those silly comments about my research of competition, I remember say “risk” but you sensationalise & misquote to feed your delusion."

Aus, as I've said previously, I'll believe it when I see it. VMO2 articles are used as an excuse to hammer BT's share price. Aside from the fact that VMO2 have as much debt on their books as BT, with less revenue, it makes no sense for VMO2 to buy TalkTalk. The JV confirmed today will take years to build out, and VMO2 would have to utiilise BT while it awaits the JV rolling out to various locations. Why would VMO2 take over TalkTalk, when the JV could offer TalkTalk a wholesale deal? Adding everything up, even if VMO2 could afford TalkTalk, it makes no sense for VMO2 to take over TalkTalk, wouldn't you agree?

Just to add, so much for the so called Talk Talk speculation which also knocked a chunk off the share price. Since Liberty and Telefonica needed to bring in a partner to finance this, how could they possibly afford £3 Billion for Talk Talk? Which is what I said at the time.

"How could the same story pop up again knowing that it didn't materialise then and it won't now either?"

Because it's in the toolkit for knocking BT's share price. It's so obviously targetted, that it's bordering on ridiculous. I've been out this morning, and looked at the chart before looking on here, it answered my question as to why the share price dipped below 155p. Another indication of the intent behind this, is the fact it's reported on a strike day, so clearly a vested interest play.

"Backing a share with 68568m shares compared to one with 10406m shares is the wrong horse, I'm steering well clear in fear of a 5 to 1 consolidation"

Why would you fear a reverse split, assuming the dividend's are increased in line with reduction in shares?

"Whats happened at bt? on its rear end today for some reason"

The market punishes BT when Jansen F arts, BT's results were good in my opinion. I was going to top up Lloyds when my dividends roll in during August and September, but I'll possibly pump the money into BT now, if the price stays this low. Down nearly 18% since July 12th, first drop on a speculative article around VMO2 and TalkTalk, now dropped further on the results.
We've got dividends of £5,929 due in August, with £3,190 of that in the ISA's which'll be used for re-investment, and £2,739 going into savings for now. Then we've got another £4,181 dividends due in September, with £1692 in the ISA's re-invested, and £2,489 going into our savings.
While the share prices are low, we'll keep reinvesting where we see value. Currently it's hard to choose where to reinvest, as Vodafone, Lloyds, and BT, are bargain basement in my opinion.