Member Info for fleccy

"Cant even blame the yanks - up nicely over there . Just usual vodafone i suppose lulling people into a false sense of upward movement "

It's just part of the seesaw effect of risk-on/risk-off trading. The US came in with a lower than expected CPI reading, so risk on again!!! Bitcoin jumped 1000 on the CPI reading, that says it all.

"Up the workers comrade" Lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESZaD6PUc00

"Handy ,you are right all except Allera and Mehta were for tax."

Are you sure about that? If they were awards of free shares, then they're probably subject to income tax and national insurance. It's possible they received accounting advice to cash in the shares, but I don't know since I've no idea on the type of awards they were given, or the conditions attached to the awards.

"As with most of my sales, I will keep a watching eye and may re-invest if/when I think the SP falls below my estimate of fair value."

That's fair enough. What do you consider as fair value for BT, and how do you calculate said value? Also reading between the lines, I assume you believe BT may drop from here?
Somehow the market managed to knock 30p off the share price, using a combination of speculative headlines involving VMO2 and the results on the 28th July, as excuses to knock the price down. It isn't the first time speculative articles have appeared leading to BT's share price dipping inexplicably, and excessively, lower. Coinidentally, or not, the TalkTalk/VMO2 story knocked 14.55p off the closing price on the 15th July, compared to the previous days closing price; When BT's results came out on the 28th July, which I thought were ok, 14.25p was knocked off the closing price compared to the previous day. This leads me on to the reason I think BT wont go any lower, when BT went ex-dividend the price dipped to below 155p, but has since recovered to near the Pre ex-dividend and post results price, which makes me think the market's decided on around 161p/162p for BT's current price.
I'm of the opinion that big players use Off Book trading to do their major trades, and drive prices On Exchange using Algo's. Considering the daily closing price drop after the TalkTalk story and after the results release were within 0.3p of each other, it does make you wonder if the same Algo's were used on each occasion to drive the price down. It was probably coincidental that the drops were within 0.3p of each other, but that's pretty close and you could be forgiven for being suspicious, especially since many of these stories appear out of the blue, like the Sky/VMO2 rumours that fizzled out. I'll add that I don't believe the TalkTalk story either, but if there is a glimmer of truth to it, I don't see it impacting BT/Openreach in the short term, and probably not in the long term either.

I don't really give Vodafone much thought week to week. I look in regularly, but rarely post unless something demands a response lol. I'm not happy with the performance of any of my holdings, but more at annoyance at the market treatment of companies I'm invested in. Lloyds is my biggest holding, BT 2nd largest, with Vodafone coming in third, and all are well below market value in my opinion. Since I don't have any urgency to sell any of my stocks, I'm collecting the dividends and reinvesting where I see the most value.
Out of the three, Vodafone is the hardest to judge, since it's a complicated patchwork of different companies and entities, with Group run more like a hedge fund controlling the different parts. I can't complain too much about Vodafone, since out of my three holdings they continued paying dividends, at a reduced rate, throughout the Covid period.
I haven't got any fears about Vodafone going bust, but I wonder about the sustainability of the dividends with the amount of debt. Vodafone seems to be moving away from outlying markets and also selling Tower assets, probably with one eye on its debt, and focusing on its core European markets.

"plus nobody wants to buy U.K./sterling denominated assets since brexit, the gift that keeps on giving."

I don't disagree with that statement, but the real basket case is the EU. The EU has a ton of problems with stress cracks showing everywhere. Italy is the third largest economy in the Eurozone, with political instability far in excess of anything the UK's seen for hundreds of years; The hard right Brothers of Italy are set to take control of the Italian government, with Giorgia Meloni set to become Italy's next Prime Minister. Spain has never properly shaken off the Franco years, with the treatment of Barcelona separatist politicians an example of what festers below the surface. The Eastern Block countries are fundamentally right wing and resistant to being told what to do, which is likely due to their subjugation under Russia for decades.
The EU bend over backwards and relax rules to paper over the cracks, but it'd take very little for the whole thing to break apart. The problems run deep with cultural, language, economic, and protectionist issues seperating the member countries.

"I do not currently hold as I see better opportunities elsewhere and am left wondering whether the costs of Fibre rollout will hold the SP back for some time?"

From what you've said I assume you're a short term trader, rather than a long term investor? From a long term investor point of view, wouldn't a depressed share price be a good thing if you believe in the long term outlook?
The way I view BT isn't as a growth stock per se, but as a company with huge potential to grow the bottom line through cost cutting initiatives, in the meantime I can grow my future capital gain by reinvesting dividends while the price is low.
I believe the perceived threat of competition from Altnets and VMO2 is overblown, with Altnets having a 1990's Deja Vu cable company feel about them. By 2030 BT will have a more efficient network, with less buidings and much lower operating costs. The Openreach workforce is saleable based solely on their operating profits, add in BT's Fibre, mobile, core network assets, etc and BT is clearly undervalued.

Ryanair need to show they can grow Net Income to justify a higher P/E. Their Net income for previous years, in Euro thousands, comes in at:

..2021......2020..........2019.......2018......2017
-241,000 -1,015,000 649,000 885,000 1,450,000

Back in 2017 the P/E was around 18x, which is arguably at the high end for European stocks. Much will depend on sentiment, competition, and raising the bottom line going forward. The Airline industry need to see oil prices drop significantly, otherwise fuel costs will eat into their margins, especially for budget Airlines. The market seems to currently view the Airline sector as a recovery play, but significant increases in ticket prices, hammering demand, could easily turn market sentiment negative toward the sector.

Something else, these sales were listed as share award scheme related sell's. As they're awards they're treated as income, so taxable as income apparently.

"Share-award schemes
Share-award schemes involve giving employees actual shares rather than share options, free or for less than their market value. The value of shares given to employees is treated as employment income - subject to tax and National Insurance contributions, unless you opt for a HMRC approved share scheme which comes with specific rules and requirements."

https://www.nibusinessinfo.co.uk/content/defining-share-option-and-share-award-schemes

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/b/bt-group-plc-ordinary-5p/director-deals

"so why did he allow this with these two individuals who are in critical posts in BT? especially by Marc Allera? Thoughts would be appreciated !"

Marc Allera is still holding 839,884 shares, so still has a significant holding. Mehta Harmeen is only left with 7,344 shares after her sale, but you can bet there was a reason behind her sale that wasn't company related.

"Looks like the Digital and Innovation Officer doesn't have a lot of confidence in BT.
186K shares given under the restricted option plan and immediately sold.
Maybe she could tell us something we don't know!"

Maybe she's seen a house, or apartment, she likes. £295,897.41 will probably just about cover the deposit if she's looking for something upmarket.

https://www.knightfrank.co.uk/apartments-for-sale/london?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=seo_property_pages

"If Lloyds SP went to £2.50 a share by way of a share consolidation as Brixton suggested, the value of your Lloyds holding would be exactly the same as before the share consolidation."

I was talking about it reaching £2.50 without a reverse split, I can dream can't I?

"And we also have the BOE forecasting the UK to go into recession in the final quarter this year for a prolonged period of 5 quarters. If this proves accurate how will that affect the final results F/Y 2022?"

Homeowners will protect their castle above everything else, car loans are probably at highest risk of default. Apparently there's a shortage of labour in the UK, so plenty of jobs out there. Energy prices are the biggest contributer to inflation, so I expect many will suffer as price caps are raised, but I suspect the ones at higest risk from energy price increases are pensioners and benefit claimants. I don't see a significant risk to bank earnings, as people in work will struggle through the recession, but avoid great financial difficulty in my opinion.

"At 77p it's still a penny share . The bus driver has no sat nav, consolidation over the £1 preferable £2.50 will help ."

If Lloyds went to £2.50 a share, that would push the value of my Lloyds holding above £961,000, I would love that.

"And the way I see it, there is nothing else to get the SP moving into the 50p+ before the Full Year 2022 results in February next year and see how we are then and what we get from the BOD by way of return of capital to share holders before we see any possible significant increase in SP."

If you assume a near 20% increase in the final dividend, matching the interim increase, then you're looking at 1.59p final bringing the total for the FY to 2.39p. Also why wouldn't people look at the Q3 interim management statement, on the 27th October, to judge FY2022 profit outlook?

"RBC Capital Markets rating is spot on.....45p.......and looks like we could be camped at this level for a long time yet. All the others miles off!"

Why do you say that Hardup? The higher interest rates climb, the better the NIM. I wouldn't bet against Lloyds climbing significantly from here, since it's clearly sentiment driving the price down, with fundamentals pointing to a much higher price. It's only a matter of when, not if, UK value stocks generally are rerated upwards, with their stock prices eventually reaching fair value.

"“We had anticipated a more gradual benefit at the beginning of the rate-hike cycle, but have now adjusted our NIM assumptions upward. As a result of these changes, as well as time value of money since our last model was updated, we raise our fair value estimate to 77 pence per share from 68 pence previously. We believe Lloyds’ shares are attractive at current levels,” explains Kammer."

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/225729/europes-most-undervalued-banks.aspx

"Most 5G networks today are Non-Standalone (“NSA”), meaning 5G is supported by existing 4G infrastructure. 5G Carrier Aggregation (“CA”) over a standalone network represents a major leap forward in the evolution of 5G infrastructure, effectively combining several transmission bands into one connection. Every new carrier added allows for higher capacity and speed directly to customer devices.

Greg McCall, Managing Director Service Platforms BT, commented: “Our trial with Nokia is another demonstration of building the most advanced network for our customers. 5G Standalone, coupled with edge compute, will unlock new opportunities for customers looking to develop new services. Furthermore, this technology showcases what’s possible for devices in the future in terms of supporting carrier aggregation, which is an important part of customer experience.”

Mark Atkinson, SVP, Radio Access Networks PLM, Nokia, commented: “We are once again delighted to be deepening our partnership with BT, supporting them with our industry-leading Carrier Aggregation technology for this trial. Nokia and BT have a long history in investing in cutting-edge technologies and this trial is another example of what our companies can achieve together.”"

https://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=292694

"Now that the market has somewhat regained composure, and BT price is roughly where it was previously before COVID, they may restart it next year."

If that's the case, then it'd coincide with the end of the super-deduction period. As far as the price dropping, I don't think that'd stop BT offering a sharesave scheme. I've been in a situation where I applied for the maximum monthly amount in a sharesave scheme many years ago, but the company share price dropped dramatically approaching the start of the scheme, so the company advised the scheme was oversubscribed and scaled back monthly amounts to half of the requested value; In my case I'd applied for £250 a month, and it was scaled back to £125 a month. I believe companies only have so many shares available for schemes, so scale back when they're oversubscribed.
The Super-Deduction period would make some sense for explaing the suspension, since it does affect corporation tax and cancelling employee share plans may free up capital for investment in Fibre/5G Infrastructure/Plant, covered by the super deduction tax relief.

"An Evening Standard news article today which begs the question why did BT stop their Scheme last year after 35 years or so ? Said they cant afford to offer it to the staff anymore!!"

I've tried to find information relating to BT stopping their Employee share schemes; I've looked for information relating to sharesave schemes, and share incentive plans, without success. Does anyone have any links relating to BT's Employee share plans being stopped and why?
I highly doubt it's because BT can't afford it, and more likely related to HMRC company tax incentives, or possibly other Employee incentives like issuing free bonus shares.
In relation to sharesave schemes, Employers can apparently claim corporation tax relief on the difference between the market value of the shares at the date of exercise and the exercise price, could the sharesave/incentive plans have been suspended for an external reason? Possibly something like Super Deduction complicating future corporation tax relief. on schemes starting in the Super-Deduction period between 1 April 2021 until 31 March 2023?

"The 130% super-deduction and 50% first-year allowance are generous brand new capital allowances for investments in plant and machinery assets. Both will allow investing companies to lower their corporation tax bills."

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/967202/Super_deduction_factsheet.pdf

I have no understanding of how companies benefit from such schemes, so all of the above is purely speculative, but I'd be interested to read the view of someone more knowledgeable.