RE: What will you do ?nTake 222 Jul 2023 15:51
Any new pay rises are yet to be negotiated and are currently unknown, just like next years CPI+3.9% rises are still unknown. Even if BT take on further debt, it doesn't change the fact that cost savings are already feeding through, and capex will drop off a cliff from 2026 onward. As far as OFCOM's concerned, clearly regulation on BT will reduce as FTTP rollout reaches saturation, since market forces will dictate pricing in locations having more than one FTTP provider, and there'll be no reason to regulate BT.
BT own Openreach which clearly has value in its own right, but separately BT own all the ducts, poles wayleaves, etc. Openreach manage the provisioning and maintenance of the Access network for all their customers, including BT, so Openreach's value is determined by the earnings from providing those services. Eventually I expect Openreach to be IPO'd, but as I said BT separately own the ducts poles, the installed BT Fibre, etc and therefore benefit from rental from those assets, which will likely continue after BT sell the whole or a portion of Openreach. Debt can be paid off and reduced over time, but the assets will still be there and increase in value with inflation, as will the cost customers pay for receiving service. I don't see BT doing anything with Openreach until the pension deficit is resolved and no longer an issue.
I agree, a dividend increase is unlikely until the CAPEX reduces.
Makehappen were recently rolling out Fibre on behalf of CityFibre in my local area, but have recently gone into administration, so Im not sure how that'll affect CityFibre here and it demonstrates the pressure that must be falling on the industry in general. I presume CityFibre have a plan, but some of the local rollout makes little sense. I live on a road that's semi rural, they've micro-trenched along the road and installed small boxes outside the properties; The properties have big garden's with long driveways and I don't see any easy way to provide service to the properties. The reason I mention this, is that BT have the area well covered by manholes, poles and an extensive duct network, yet they're currently choosing not to rollout fibre in this area where we already have VMO2 and now CityFibre, why is that when it'd be an easy rollout? I've mused that BT are leaving many of the easy cheaper rollouts until later, which means CAPEX may reduce quicker than many think; Of course I'm basing this view entirely on my own location and it may not be the case elsewhere.