VSA Capital Analyst note summary - 98p tgt price8 Jul 2019 15:26
G3 Exploration#: Refocusing on Core Expertise
Having successfully brought blocks GSS and GCZ into commercial production in 2010 and with gross sales of 5.7BCF delivering net profit of US$10.3m achieved in 2018 G3 Exploration (G3E LN) is now well placed to refocus on its core expertise of CBM development and exploration. G3E previously announced its intention to spin out the producing assets via a dividend in specie pending a trade sale or IPO. Currently held for sale at a value of US$390m we see this as the primary catalyst for the shares as this will enable repayment of outstanding debt as well as providing development capital for the remaining core development blocks.
Accelerated Programme to Near Term Production
G3E’s core asset base after the dividend in specie will be the remaining six blocks which like GSS and GCZ are partnered with CNOOC and PetroChina under long standing and attractive PSCs. The near term focus is likely to be on blocks GGZ and GSN, the latter of which is adjacent to the currently producing blocks. With a recapitalisation achievable through the sale of the producing assets we believe that commercial production could be achieved rapidly and we anticipate peak net production of 5.4BCF and 3.1BCf respectively from these development blocks indicating the potential for significant annual cashflow. G3E applies the LiFaBriC drilling technology, which enables a sustained period of peak production which means that at GGZ we anticipate at least five years of free cash flow in excess of US$25mpa.
Broader CBM Opportunities
Although the strategic rationale for CBM in China remains compelling given import dependency of over 40% for natural gas and an ongoing shift from coal for power generation which will see China’s use of coal for primary energy consumption fall from over 60% in 2012 to less than a third by 2050, we see the potential for CBM opportunities beyond China for G3E.
The company has committed to entering a new geography and we see opportunities in terms of gas to power projects in Africa as well as exploiting uneconomically mineable coal seams in jurisdictions such as the UK as possibilities. G3E’s primary drilling technique involves no injection of chemicals and a minimal surface print meaning a limited environmental impact whilst producing natural gas; the key bridge fuel over the coming decades, in our view.
Recommendation and Target Price
We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and target price of 98p.
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