WHIreland Comment1 Oct 2019 10:21
Caspian Sunrise (CASP) – Corporate – Interim Results
Market Cap £185m Share Price 10.15p
Caspian Sunrise announced yesterday (at 9:03) that it is progressing operations at its deep wells. With the company cleaning up Deep Well 8 before formal testing and drilling ahead on the Deep Well A5 sidetrack, with a further 200m left before targeted depth is reached. Acid treatments are expected to go-ahead imminently at the Deep Well A6 after which it will be applied to the Deep Well 801.
Most importantly, the company indicated that it intends to drill 18 infill wells into the shallow MJF structure with its newly acquired rigs by the end of 2020 bring production capacity to circa 8,000 b/d, more than twice the previously announced guidance to reflect a more active drilling programme.
We estimate that the MJF structure will produce a total of 20.6 million barrels, which is a WHI estimate based on a structural closure of 10km2, which could increase with more appraisal drilling. Based on this assumption and a host of estimates, including a $60/b crude oil price assumption, we ascribe $141M of value to that structure which equates to 5.9 p/sh.
In our opinion, the company’s shallow assets continue to over-deliver relative to expectations whilst its deep assets have yet to deliver proof of their ability to produce oil at stable long-term rates, which is the underlying purpose of ongoing operations at the deep wells.