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To be honest I think it is pretty disgusting that so many people are widely ramping Vast whilst they are sat on big losses. The company is still insolvent and has no operating mines. I would like to give AP the benefit of the doubt but it is now mid-August and yet again his timelines and statements have shown to be completely unreliable. I see little evidence of any real progress and sadly it just looks like the company is taking shareholders for a ride.
Fair play to you if you can afford to take the risk here, but I think all of this talk of bagging etc on Twitter is pretty reprehensible given the history. I have no issue with the measured optimists who are giving their honest opinions, but it is hard to stomach the clowns who just ramp 24/7 or make random marketcap predictions when some of us would need a 500% rise just to break even!
It is truly impressive how Vast manages to simultaneously give the impression that they are on the verge of either administration or turning over millions of dollars each month.
This has to be the most frustrating share to be in or out of!
Hooray! Perhaps we might be able to get some movement on the Maibwe JV at last :)
https://www.facebook.com/TheWeekendPostBW/posts/2638216786202859
Hi TBTT,
I think I read somewhere that phase 3 must complete within 90 days of phase 2 completion, but I agree that news should land soon so I will be topping up when payday arrives. The license appears to be slightly behind schedule though which is a bit concerning, unless they've just not RNS'd it.
Cheer up glaw, this is positive news. As a reminder, BOD had a deal with Vutomi. This could just be a placing to help settle the loan account and increase our stake in Thorny River.
BOD will offer a total of 100 million shares and £942,000 in cash to acquire 72% of Vutomi structured as follows:
? Option Fee on signature: £61,000 in shares (3.2 million) and £61,000 cash (at a share price of 1.9 pence): Done
? Phase 1 (12 months): spend £215,000 to earn 15% of Vutomi: In progress
? Phase 2 (12 months): spend £366,000 to earn a further 25% of Vutomi
? Phase 3 within 90 days of the completion of Phase 2: the balance in BOD shares
(96.8 million), and settle Vutomi’s shareholders loan accounts of c.£300,000 in cash to earn a further 32% of Vutomi
http://www.botswanadiamonds.co.uk/res/bod-presentation-august-2017-v4.pdf
So no evidence then... Whatever happened to the grant of the right to mine that everyone celebrated? Is that not proof of some dishonesty? What exactly was awarded?
Well let me re-frame the question, what evidence is there to suggest that AP is not being strung along? I’ve heard talk of plans, meetings and roadmaps somewhere before...
what is the evidence we have something exactly? A few appearances at investment conferences? Some articles in the zimbabwe press boasting about a grand plan? Granted Vast has assembled a good team in Zimbabwe, but I see little confirmation that progress has been made on any deal.
Oh and James refers to the gravels as Diamondiferous, so I wonder if they will be able to sample them on their existing permit? Excellent news anyhow.
New Tweet:
Coarse gravels adjacent to the Marsfontein Pit on the Mining Permit which has been accepted by the DMR. #diamonds #mining #southafrica.
https://twitter.com/BotswanaDiamond/status/1148672823038226432
Interesting... The guy in the photo has a pick-axe so perhaps they have found something of interest in there. After a brief scout of the internet I've found a paper on Marsfontein which is worth a read, especially as Marsfontein is very similar to Thorny River being a volcanistic blow (Klipspringer was magmatic).
http://www.saimm.co.za/Conferences/DiamondsSourceToUse2003/008-Scott
"In the first two days of mining the 15 metre thick eluvial gravels overlying the pipe, 40 000 carats were produced at a grade of 1 433 carats per hundred tons (cpht). In the first month, 24 781 tons were treated to
produce 165 251 carats (grade 667 cpht). This material was worth US$934 per ton. The value of the first months production was US$ 23.14 million, payback of capital being achieved in 3.4 working days.
...
Further low grade stock piles from gravels around the pipe and from a stockwork of kimberlite veinlets in
diabase were processed in 2001 and produced an additional 94 534 carats. "
This is unrelated, but James has also published a microdiamond analysis of Thorny River last year which is worth a read: http://www.botswanadiamonds.co.uk/res/21-d07_cronwright.pdf
It just seems like a shitty way to treat a JV partner who is facing mass protests from the community in two weeks. If the deal was nearly signed off then all three parties should be excited about the future. People seem to be loading up here so I guess I must be wrong.
Can the company not afford gloves for handling that rusty equipment?
I don't think he should discuss it until he has signed the deal. The fact that he is talking about things openly in the Zimbabwe press at this stage is concerning, as most companies would wait for the JV to be signed before making a joint public announcement about turnover, benefits to the community etc. I don't think he is stupid so I can only assume that this has been done to put a bit of pressure on ZCDC and the government at a time when the community is preparing mass demonstrations.
Read into that what you will, as admittedly it might just be confirmation bias of my own cynicism. It just strikes me as odd that Vast, ZCDC and the community are still not singing from the same page despite the supposed advanced stage of the joint venture.
James seems to be tweeting a lot about Marsfontein and its famous 3.5 day ROI recently in anticipation of the mining permit being awarded. He also mentions the M8 Kimberlite dyke at Marsfontein in the last RNS which is interesting.
I wonder if the suspected Kimberlite blow at Thorny River is related or if they have found something interesting in M8? He also mentioned alluvial's were being investigated in a previous RNS:
"Early stage work is also progressing on potential secondary (alluvial) diamond deposits in the project area, with a number of targets being identified. The nearby and worked-out Marsfontein diamond mine was host to eluvial diamond deposits running at grades of 1,433 cpht." RNS 04/04/19
Something to get excited about?
Who the hell boasts like that and does PR before a deal is struck? Not to mention the fact that ZCDC have not issued anything about the planned JV and nothing has been signed. I can't blame AP for trying to secure the heritage concession and applaud him for his vision, but I can't help but think he has fooled everyone again by over-stating the progress being made. This looks like lobbying IMO. Time will tell if the Emperor has clothes or not.
Botswana begins due diligence on possible Lucara stake
“The thinking could be to cash in on the profits to be made now because by 2026, Karowe will be going underground where costs are higher and tricky variables are plenty,” said the analyst.
“It would have made sense to move in a few years ago, but by that time, Lucara’s value was at record highs after Lesedi and Constellation.
“Getting in prior to Lesedi and Constellation would have been a risk of taxpayer monies as no one would have predicted the two big stones’ discoveries.”
https://www.rough-polished.com/en/news/114380.html
I find it a bit odd that the government wants to buy into Lucara now. They clearly believe that there is some growth to be had in the company.
As you say we are at a very low share price and the share price moves up and down on barely any trades so BOD shares are tightly held. I am still quite excited about Thorny River. The Managing Director has put his own money into the project, the drill results are positive, we have a plant ready to go and free revenue streams from the existing ore leftover from Marsfontein / Klipspringer. What I find interesting is that most of the profit from the bulk sampling has been given away. The drill results suggest a massive deposit so I am thinking James et al are focused on the main prize, which is to get the project to a stage where they can declare a maiden resource value. Then they can borrow from a bank to finance the project or bring in a partner to develop the site into a complete mine. This is a great move for shareholders, as instead of having massive dilution and having to raise millions to build a plant, we get the project to a maiden resource for free with very little dilution and risk. Plus if it goes well we might end up turning a profit. The last few RNS's hinted at a possible alluvial deposit and a Kimberlite blow being investigated. I suspect that James is keeping a relatively low profile until the section 20 license arrives, but they have made a second trench and some ex-debeer's guys had a tour of the site so presumably there is something interesting to look at.
Then we have the joint venture with Vast. I am still 50/50 on this one given the currency issues and slow progress to date. I can't bring myself to trust Andrew Prelea so we will see what happens and how honest he has been. I see a lot of conference attendances and photos with the community but little actual progress and no third party verification from the government or community. I still struggle to see why the Emerson Manganawa government would simply handover 59% of a billion dollar resource to an insolvent company like Vast. If we do manage to get it though it could be huge. I am invested here because if it doesn't come off then we still have Thorny River, Free State and Maibwe. Plus with the tightly held shares I suspect BOD will also do quite well on any news, as we don't have the dilution and massive day trading problems that Vast has.
All we have is speculation about Maibwe at this point. I did find it interesting that the Sunday Standard article was tweeted by James Campbell so there must be some truth to it (although he did describe it as sensationalist). BOD are also on record as having tried to buy BCL's stake the in the project and John Teeling has spoken previously about the great results they had. The point is we have a 15% share of a Kimberlite discovery with significant quantities of diamonds and the full results have never been published. If the Vast JV lands, Thorny River produces decent results or Maibwe moves ahead then we should expect a decent rise from here.
As it is quiet and we are still waiting for further news I thought I would speculate a little on the recent news events. The mineral resources minister Eric Molale has let it slip that there is another huge diamond discovery in Botswana, as big as Jwaneng in a Rough & Polished interview:
https://www.rough-polished.com/en/exclusive/113067.html
Is it true that there is a diamond deposit as big as Jwaneng that was discovered in Botswana?
Yes, there is.
Where?
No! [All I can say] it’s in Botswana (laughs).
None of the other mining firms have announced any major discoveries as far as I'm aware and we know that Maibwe joint venture with BCL had great results that have never been made public. In fact when the government was informed of the Maibwe discovery corrupt President Ian Khama had a cabinet switch-around and suddenly shutdown BCL. It is entirely possible, if sensationalist, that these events were related to Maibwe:
http://www.sundaystandard.info/khama%E2%80%99s-nephew-bcl-shady-diamond-deal
With the BCL liquidator now going and the assets being handed back to the government, is there perhaps a chance that the government will be moving Maibwe forward?
Firstly the Maibwe project will need a major to ultimately help develop the project. The Botswana government already owns 15% of DeBeers and has been renegotiating with them recently. Interestingly they have also recently offered to buy a share of Lucara Diamonds, which operates the AK6 diamond mine formerly owned by the African Diamonds / BOD team. So it is entirely conceivable that one of these two companies will end up buying BCL's 51% stake in Maibwe, as they have the resources to develop it into a full mine and the government will also benefit from their shareholdings.
So we have a government that is actively investing in diamond companies. The government knows of a huge discovery that is potentially the size of the richest diamond mine in the world, which has yet to be mined or formally announced by any company, and there is a lot of secrecy surrounding the Maibwe license, which we know had fantstic results. Perhaps it might take a year or two, but if there really is a huge deposit in Maibwe then it will surely get commercialized with the liquidator gone. James has made a lot of noise about the Maibwe prospectus and I think that might be because the project is about to be moved on from deadlocked situation we found ourselves in with the BCL liquidation.
All of the above is pure speculation. The events might not be related and the Maibwe license could simply expire without any benefit to BOD, but it would be pretty sweet if we see some movement on the Maibwe license this year. I guess we will find out more when the prospectus is announced.
Is 2019 going to be a defining year for BOD?
I have made my point. Sorry if I have upset any happy winners here.
That's good, because 2019 so far has been:
#Sold gold mines
#Shutdown Manaila
#Failed to get prepayment finance
#Delayed Blueberry update
#More Dilution
The SRK report will confirm the value of the assets and increase the likelihood of financing, but it won't change the fact that Vast are still an insolvent company with no cash flow. Vast requires a massive capital injection to get anything off the ground, 4 million of which will just go towards paying off its other creditors.
It might be worth a punt if you take all of the above into consideration and like the risk/reward ratio, but I think some like to conveniently ignore the perilous state that the company is in. The last two items in Krazy's list are flat-out lies.
I am all for optimism and looking forward to the future, but lists like these are just helping to screw other hapless investors out of their money until the company actually starts delivering on its promises.