RE: CMRA - Grant and Gigafactory21 May 2024 12:31
It is very interesting no one is talking about the hinted suggestion that EMH may be diluted at the project level in Geomet . Suggested , off takers to take a stake with prepayments , Also ERBD wont want any more shares in EMH , I would certainly think they too will want to be in at the project level . And they all will want a board seat to oversee their investment .
What does that mean , at least the share holder agreement in Geomet quantifies both partners will be diluted equally .
Now , when you get say two players that want to give you $100 mil each . How many shares do you give them ??????????
At the moment there will probably only be 100 shares in Geomet , 51 for CEZ and 49 for us . That doesn't sound like enough shares to go around ??????
The whole trick here is GEOMET will need to be independently Valued to asses what the $100 Mil each would be in terms of precentage of the whole value of the project . I am thinking we can reverse engineer a value and a percentage that we may give away . I am liking the 5% figure below , we dont want to give away too much .
Cash Input Valuation
$200,000,000 $1,000,000,000 20.00%
$200,000,000 $2,000,000,000 10.00%
$200,000,000 $3,000,000,000 6.67%
$200,000,000 $4,000,000,000 5.00%
$200,000,000 $5,000,000,000 4.00%
$200,000,000 $6,000,000,000 3.33%
$200,000,000 $7,000,000,000 2.86%
$200,000,000 $8,000,000,000 2.50%
$200,000,000 $9,000,000,000 2.22%
$200,000,000 $10,000,000,000 2.00%
But then hey PRESTO the project now has a valuation out side of any international broking platforms . I wander how the share price will then perform in each international duristriction . We all know stockmarkets can get it all wrong .
On the point of the offtake based on above , I would certainly be happy , to get the project further down the line ie CRMA critical Raw Material Status etc to create that whole value in Geomet B4 an offtaker flashed some cash at us . The higher the Geomet Value the less dilution . And then add Geomet will mostly be funded with loans , grants and others . EMH will not only get diluted by a small amount in Geomet , but will not also be diluted as EMH as we may not need any cash for capex . The kicker here in my example above EMH will still own 46.5 % of the project valued at $1,860,000,000 Or $8.96 aud a share . Even halving it is still monumentous . Oh how the stock markets get it so wrong .