RE: Times Today20 Feb 2020 08:31
A
Hedge your bets over Sirius bid
Alistair Osborne
Thursday February 20 2020, 12.01am, The Times
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Crispin Odey is known for many things: being the Brexiteer hedge fund supremo who shorted the pound; sharing a reputed £775 million fortune with his investment manager wife Nichola Pease; having a car-crash bet against Tesla shares.
But becoming the new best friend of 85,000 retail punters, deep in the fertiliser at Sirius Minerals? What, Mayfair hedgie Crispin? You cannot be Sirius. Well, think again, because that’s precisely the impression Odey Asset Management wants to give with its spot of “bumpitrage” at the Woodsmith mine.
Odey’s just taken a 1.29 per cent stake in Sirius, mainly via contracts for difference: the cue for announcing that Anglo-American’s £405 million rescue bid “does not represent fair value” for investors. It finds the 5.5p-a-share offer “unjust”, reckoning 7p-plus would be nearer the mark: a point made in a letter to Anglo boss Mark Cutifani and Sirius chief Chris Fraser. And, yes, it’s a bit late for Mr Odey to have discovered the pretty money pit on the North York Moors. But, as noted here on Saturday, here was a situation ripe for hedgie brinkmanship.
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The deal is via a scheme of arrangement, with the vote on March 3. And, as the prospectus makes clear, for the bid to go through it requires “the approval of the majority in number” of voting shareholders “representing not less than 75 per cent in value” of the votes. Retail shareholders own half the stock. And, even allowing for much of that being via platforms such as Hargreaves Lansdown, for this bid they have unusual clout.
To boot, some are so livid with Mr Fraser for enticing them down the mine at as much as 40p a share that they’ve vowed to vote the deal down to spite him. His response? That if they do, Sirius will go bust. Similarly, Mr Cutifani insists he will not be raising his bid: every 1p on the price adds $100 million to Anglo’s bill. Neither are Sirius shares signalling a bump: a below-offer 5.12p. And why should he be worried about Odey? It actually owns just 0.21 per cent.
Still, with two weeks to go to the vote, you’d expect them to say that. And Odey does have form. Its letter was written by Henry Steel, famous for his rancorous exit from Rio Tinto. He departed nicely clued up on its Oyu Tolgoi mine project in Mongolia: info he used at Odey to successfully short the shares of the Canadian-listed vehicle, Turquoise Hill, via which Rio held its stake in the mine. He also banded together with other hedgies to force Barrick Gold to up its bid for Acacia Mining.
Mr Steel is now teasing Anglo, claiming it would make its bid “final” if it wasn’t leaving room for a bump. Anglo says that’s simply tactical: keen to avoid Apollo’s woes over plastic maker RPC, where