Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Agreed, my point was that investors remain in the dark about the pace of actual commercial progress (as per usual with Newland). And equally in the dark about revenue build.
I think the FY23 results will be poor, and we could see another retrace back to mid-15s. The spikes in sp on news has just been used by long term holders and day traders to reduce exposure. To punch thro' back to the levels at which last raise was i.e. 80p is going to take some doing....the sp hits resistance every time at 35-30p absent sustained positive commercial newsflow.
Always has that whiff with Nero doesn't it. Fair do's to him (or Swansinger) that they have signed up AZ with a meaningful contract. And I was happy to praise this swallow, knowing that summer is alway a long time coming (if it ever does) with Newland. As you correctly point out, Newland has a dreadful ftrack record of hyping but not delivering. And this was one of the reasons that big investors got totally disillusioned & sold out, but not until after being royally rogered by the post FDA 80p cash raise, soon after which Newland missed his own forecasts, and the sp slumped...
Newland went on record at the trading update in November: YE 2023 revenue c£2.2m, with "Revenue recognised for 2024 expected to treble compared to 2023" i.e. to £6.6m. True to form, Newland provided no detail or rationale as to why it would 3x - a classic Newland ploy.
So with Q1 over, how is AGL performing against Newland's own predictive scorecard of £6.6m YE 24 revs? I dont think one can be terribly reassured tbh. Year to date the revenues from contracts announces stands at just £900,000 i.e.
(Eisei ($250,000) ; AZ DDR assay (£150,000); AZ prostate detection assay (£550,000).
Pro-rating that for the full year gets one to £3.6m. So either the deal flow has to accelerate at a massive rate to meet Newland's target or they have to land some big whales.
The reason SCE is priced for bankruptcy, and the reason that all shareholders from last raise and before have seen their s/holdings pretty much wiped out, is down to Bundred, Johnson & Maddocks.
The Board has a serious problem on its hands. how does it reboot the business with Johson in charge as CEO? The credibility of the Board rests on getting a management team that has wiped out its s/holder base in 6 short months to convince s/holders that they can be trusted.
Let's hope Deutsche can stimulate some interest here.
Interesting that you cant get a bid for stock from mms but they are offering plenty
Complex set of shareholdings here, but nevertheless Chris Mills is no fool, and his stake in Renalytix gives me some degree of comfort tho' the constant selling by the bond holders is testing patience.
I have been highly critical of Nero’s ‘hype n hope’ strategy, aand its impact on investors and the share price. And until today we have had a trickle of tiny commercial deals that did nothing to assuage my concerns about the commercial case for the company. However, credit where credit due, this morning’s deal is very welcome news, and Newland is to be congratulated ! If he and Brett Swansinger can continue to drive the commercial momentum and sign more 500k deals like this then sentiment may start to swing back in Newland’s direction. Clearly there is a fund raise coming but this time it may be taking place against a more positive commercial background. One swallow doesn’t make a summer, and Newland has disappointed too many times to get carried away, but I cannot deny I feel happier this morning than I have been since the fund raise at 80p
Stunning, scandalous, incredible. This is the sort of information that any properly managed manufacturing plc, with a functioning board, half-competent CEO, and properly managed operations and data collection should have shared with s/holders.
At least the NEDs are sticking more cash in, but seriously JOHSON HAS TO BE REMOVED AS CEO.... he has burnt through 10s of millions of £, destroyed value on an almost unimagineable scale since November, and seems utterly incapable of recognising that he isn't up to the job.
Who presumably was heavily involved in negotiating this appalling ourtcome is only subscribing for £3,500 worth. Talk about 2 fingers to the shareholders!!! No credibility.
Decent results. Well managed on the comms front, as no surprises given they had given good steer at time of the Power sale. Hard to see what more management can do at this stage to revive investor interest in a business that has transformed itself over last 3 years, but the legacy of previous issues still lingers large. Growing top line, strong cash conversion, decent dividend, low leverage, and ongoing investment into the business should all be seena sgood news but sp stubbornly refuses to recognise the quality of the transformation. Perhaps that s why Quested has had enough and who can blame him. The small cap malaise combined with difficult sector conditions and general aversion to sensitive sectors like this has to turn at some point, but I've been thinking that since the autumn and sp is down 15-16% YTD.
Yup, they've sold 24m in last 12m (ft.com) but still hold c40m shares (11%). JP Morgan have been aggressive buyer during the same period buying c15m shares, but clearly the selling pressure has been tremendous
Given the strong results, reinstallation of dividend, and positive trading outlook, am surprised that the sp is only up 7%....the team clearly have a lot more to get over the merits of the business model to investors. If these results had been posted by Moonpig, it hard not to speculate that the sp would have moved more consequentially...perhaps Darcey should have mentioned the magic letters "AI"
The Board really should demand that Newland’s salary be cut back as he persists in misleading investors. Outrageous that he was allowed to stick his finger in the air and guess at a tripling of revenues and then provide absolutely no solid reasoning as to why.
Well something has to change because the level of management incompetence is truly shocking given this business has been listed for ages, it has on face of it is a heavyweight set of NEDs (ex Bundred), and we were assured countless times that all was on track even as recently as this month.
But look at the size of rhe deals ffs....one trial for a piffling £150k. Newland has been talking multi million pound deals for years and still cant get past the ground floor
Not clear that having shattered investor confidence that Johnson & Maddocks can rely on investor support. The utter chaos of the last few months is directly due to dreadful, dreadful management. That is what needs to change, and fast! Why would anyone in their right mind give cash to Johnson who is clearly not up to the role? And therin lies the issue. A board reshuffle is desperately needed; Johnson needs to step down as CEO and be given another role; the CFO and COO need a proper plc experienced leader to restore their confidence and that of investors. The quickest and best solution has to be to sound out appointing a credible plc executive chair, rather than replace both Bundred and Johnson. The ship needs steadying and quickly.
Exactly on point:
1. Newland has to deliver some meaningful sales, and stop hyping the ones he's got. Eisei being a case in pouint where he trailed it ad nauseam and result was 250k pilot .....
2. So we get a patent filing but no update on the Solaris prostate clinical study agreement. Newland promised the results would be ready by end of "023....and 4 months later absolute silence. it is this sort of behaviour that has cost investors huge sums, cratered confidence, and led a number of institutions to the conclusion that he cannot be trusted to tell the truth
What investor visit? Who was visiting the company yesterday?
Looks like Brandon Hire not preforming well, plus ca change. Am mildly reassured by HSS update with sale of power unit - trading in line. Am also mildly reassured that the team's work over last 3 years to radically reshape the business, become capital-lite digitally driven platform business may actually be working. Would like to know more about why they chose to sell Power albeit it improves debt profile and capex requirement dramatically. lets hope the outlook statemetn isnt too dire
VP COMMENTARY:
" General construction remains challenging, which has impacted the performance of Brandon Hire Station in particular. An operational review of this division is well advanced and the new management team is focused on actions to drive margin improvements alongside medium term strategic objectives."
If its Sneller then all hope is lost