The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Newland got to be up there for worst CEO in AIM.....god knows there's a big enough choice
Missed the presentation, but had a quick shufti through the slides. HAving not heard the presentation, I'm unsure how to read Milverton's claim that SPA has sufficient cash (£1.1m) and facilities to cover working capital requirements and planned investment. Share price has reacted to Milverton and the FDs modest purchases after hrs last might and this morning.
Despite announcing the power division sale, which will improve the balance sheet, and confirming 2023 trading in line with market expectations, share price continues to head south. The lack of liquidity in the SME space is a big issue in the UK, and with so little institutional support, the gap between fundamental valuation and share price continues to make UK plc the bargain basement for corporate/PE shoppers. It would appear that what we have here with s/o determined to reduce/sell out their holding....over 1m traded today. Patience needed
So on Nov 9th, 4 months ago, Newland highlighted the following
- Revenue recognised for 2023 expected to be up 120% at c. £2.2m with sales secured in 2023 expected to be c. £3.3m
- Revenue recognised for 2024 expected to treble compared to 2023
- Cash runway extended into Q2 2025
Newland "The build-up of revenues has been slower than hoped but is moving in the right direction and the Company expects strong revenue growth year-on-year. The cost savings from the streamlining of our clinical services business will now extend the forecast cash runway into Q2 2025 and we look forward to progressing the planned launches of new products and services to drive widespread adoption of the Company's Parsortix system to support precision medicine in cancer."
Equally Newland can continue to drive this into the ground. Track record is there for all to see: he has completely alienated institutional shareholders; misled on timelines and news flow; produced no meaningful commercial contracts; and continually hyped statements to juice sp to drag in US punters. And along the way he managed to lose his main conduit to the US investor community Jefferies.
Because for $250,000 they have nothing to lose. They havent made any commitment beyond one pilot study. Newland of course positioned this completely differently, trailing some huge deal with a major international pharma...its one bloody pilot study Andrew!
I don’t think you’re an idiot at all WHL. I think yesterday’s RNS has shaken confidence and dented Milverton’s credibility. I remember a/o asking about CM on a results call about pricing strategy for the new software products like 1streetworks, querying if they were being positioned too cheaply, and CM brushing them aside.
Milverton has never given a figure for the contract pipeline. That lack of visibility means that financial planning is a nightmare - and without that they cannot make proper capital allocation. So Spa is now in a tricky situation - I don’t think Milverton fully realises this. IMO the obvious way forward is for CM to raise new equity because otherwise they seem likely to be treading water for quite some time. Also worth reminding ourselves that we also have a new untested CFO, who’s trying to manage Milverton and get to grips with new role, and perhaps it’s he who has influenced the sudden change in strategy?
Who knows what’s happening but I think the company needs fresh equity and probably needs to be part of a bigger group.
I too am very disappointed by the TU. It raises a huge number of questions in my mind about strategic direction and the leadership. Reading the TU , and not between the lines, clear to me that Milverton's global ambitions for the business have been pared back - they just can't generate the cash & working capital needed for the growth propsects they've banged on about. Looking at the RNS:
Revs of +6%: nothing to get excited about at all.....really pedestrian
Recurring revs +18%: these are growing at a decent clip , and recurring SAAS revs growing even more smartly, but forecasting revenue growth with any confidence is a nightmare here. The lumpiness of the contracts means there's sod all visibility...and even when there is, closing deals seems to take forever ( look at UK power deal: it took 6 months to sign from Milverton's "It's imminent" comment in October)
EBITDA +10%: again, hardly shooting out lights! But my real worry is Milverton's comment "Despite the impact of inflationary cost increases." Presumably she means staff wage costs, business rates etc, as thes are surely the main cost items.....if thats the case, then is Milverton actually saying that they've been unable to recoup part of the cost increases they're seeing through price increases to customers or put it another way, are they sellling the products too cheaply ? Not a pretty picture. And the big drop in net cash position, notwithstanding the brief, to my mind, working cap reversal wasn't flagged at all, given the analysts were miles off.
Finally, the strategy seems all over the place:
first they announce a big push to invest in sales & marketing for 1streetworks (something that hasn't been discussed prior to now). I certainly thought Milverton had already put that piece in place - clearly not! So it looks like working capital requirements are going to rise substantially over next 12 months, meaning they need to find the cash to fund it, which means imho that Milverton will have to raise new capital.
and
second, Milverton flgs another big change of direction in the USA, for the other great flagship product NG911, in which they've invested huge amounts , and spoekn about at length. Supposedly they have a great and strong relationship with the individual states so this sudden change in approach is unnerving. What I'm afriad it tells me is (1) current US approach isn't working anything like as well or as quickly as MIlverton assumed and told us) AND
(2) they can't afford to invest in salesforce in US & at the same time build 1streetworks in UK, so they are going to partially outsource the US meaning they'll have to share revenues, profits, & lose some degree of control.
Seems incredible to me that these strategic changes have been highlighted in a TU, almost as if Milverton thought that we already knew the above changes, which we didnt.
ITV have leap frogged us post results, helped by big share buy back. So STV share price flat over 1m , ITV +15%. The appalling lack of institutional interest in UK SMEs is a disaster for a vibrant economy, and this is a case in point. It's no bloody wonder that overseas players and PE can't believe their luck, even with interest rates back to 'normal ' levels after the grotesque distortions of central bank QE.
Am starting to lose track of the number of UK companies getting taken/bid for at bargain basement prices -here's list off top of head: (2023)RPS, Biffa, Devro, Curtis Banks..and last 6 months..Hotel Chocolat, Direct Line, Currys, Mattioli Woods, Virgin Money, Wincanton, and others I cant quite recall, . Jeremy Hunt's tinkering isnt going to make an iota of difference ; much firmer action required frankly and the idea that UK is an enterprise economy continues to be a sick joke.
To put it in context, the mkt cap is what £63m and they’ve just raised1/3 of market cap with power generation sale…crazy stuff and very undervalued
Nero Newland has to be right up there along with one of the most geriatric useless boards of directors out there. He has burnt through millions of shareholders monies, consistently duped investors, been incapable of anything approaching proper commercial planning ahead of FDA, failed to build proper management bench, and hasnt met a single one of his targets bar getting FDA approval for just one indication! Instead, shareholders who own the company have been treated appallingly: a smoke screen of puffery (look at his ridiculous RNS at start of year) from Newland just can't hide the fact that (1) No signs of results or progress on Ovarian and Prostate trials that were promised before Xmas (2) Not a single commercial deal of any note ! in 10 months Newland has only inked 2 pathetically small deals (1) Artios in May which was so irrelevant it had no value attached and then (2) the miniscule Eisai pilot study worth a miserable £250k. Given Newlands run rate....we are likely to get a grand total of £250k extra in deals over next 10 months, missing his target of £6m by c £5.5m....and I agree the signs arent good when they have adverts to recruit salesmen. If the3se are first time posts wtf has Newland been doing all this time or even worse are they seeking repalcements existing staff who tiring of newland's nonsense have just upped and walked.
Yes reread it and found the cash fig at the bottom of the release. Silly of them not to highlight it
it isnt £23 of cash - read the rns..the smart ****s at hss have given the enterprise fig. ie including the debt attached to the businesses...poor poor poor
He is a little tinker our sunlounger consultant...
And how..........not a sound from Tom Winnifroth, Harry's 'useful idiot' ....
I almost fell off my chair...........there is no advanced planning ...the mine isnt built, locals havent been moved, basic things like utilities havent been fully installed...If you go onto the websie and look at the projects section you';'ll see some photo galleries...from 2014 which show a bunch of local digging trenches...just remember that there have been no additional photos added to the gallery...
I assume Adamd swill hang on until he has his pension pot fully loaded, checked his residency status, and tax benefits from remaining in Cyprus, and then pull the trigger. Don't forget there is nothing that passes as governance at Kefi ever since Admas combined the 2 roles of chairman and CEO! .....Quite likely that Adams walks the moment TK gets funding, as he will scarper onto the sunlounger as he knows sfa about building and operating mines.
The 2 biggest shareholders, namely Exponent & Ravensworth own 60pc . Add in Hestia and that's 65pc. So little free float.
Exponent acquired the business in 2012 & floated it in 2015, & still retain a huge stake c 33%. Turnaround started by previous CEO & Ashmore, has been buffeted by of course Brexit, Pandemic, and now Cost of Living and hit to the sector which appears to be flirting with recession. While Ashmore has done and continue to do a good job, as CEO, he must wonder what Exponent & Ravensworth are up to...Some thoughts:
1. Private Equity Bid;:Exponent know this business really well, so must be tempted to ring cash registers a second time, i.e. take it off now at ridiculous price let Ashmore do his thing, and refloat a second time. BUT to do so will need ravensorth to play ball.
2. Trade Sale/ Merger: Originally this was the most likely scenario, but the blackswans of Brexit & Pandemic put paid to that and now we have tricky market conditions, so no trade sdale at depressed prices. BUT asier to control it if the company is safely tucked under PE wing - see 1
3. Business as usual: hope that SME listed companies revive and sp starts to grab investor attention......
adams and 'truth' can never be used in the same sentence.....so sp marked down 20pc because of course the market makers dont want any of the stuff on their books. adams' latest three cup trick means he's now issued something like 5.8 billion shares in this non-mining operation!! just to be clear: (1) funding package has not been signed and there is still no cash in the account from his principal lenders (2) adams made the absurd suggestion that the nav of tk was worth 2.9p ...based on "planned interest" & using some hypothetical gold price (3) the mine only exists on paper ....latest project start is mid year (4) there is no gold or copper to sell without a bloody working mine ....and (5) the sunlounger awarded himself £200k worth...for what?? he has delivered **** all and is a total charlatan
This time its Spirent.....the Tories have made LSE the bargain basement of teh world for companies shopping for acquisitons. Barely a week goes by...