Member Info for Fernan10

I didn't want to sound arrogant.
My apologies

Regards

Ok, I bought a few hundred thousand shares recently, and let´s see what transpires.
But, as I said before, if the moroccans are so excited about Sound´s gas projects, then GL should have no trouble in finding a farm in partner to pay the costs of the exploration commitments in Amoula (1 well= US$ 8 mm) and Sidi Moukta (500 km 2d seismic= US$ 4 mm).
GL has done the talking, now it´s time for him to show us the money.
Regards

Fernan

Suppliers are offering 10-year LNG deals at 16-18% of Brent crude.
With Brent at US$ 106/b, we are talking of US$ 17-19/mcf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/long-term-gas-deals-become-pricey-as-world-moves-to-quit-russia

Suppliers are offering 10-year LNG deals at 16-18% of Brent crude.
With Brent at US$ 106/b, we are talking of US$ 17-19/mcf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/long-term-gas-deals-become-pricey-as-world-moves-to-quit-russia

As I commented in a previous post, this year Sound has the following exploration commitments:
Drilling of a well on Anoual block: US$ 8 mio
500 km 2D on Sidi Mouktar: US$ mio 4

If, as Graham said in the recent interview, everybody in Morocco is anxious to get Sound´s gas flowing, then SOU will have no trouble in farming out this licenses, in exchange for the farm-in partner assuming the cost of those exploration commitments.
Let´s see if that´s true.
As always, time will tell

Regards

Fernan

Good evening.
In December presentation, management informed gross contingent resources of 361 bcf (271 bcf net to CHAR).
The NPV of those contigent resources (net to CHAR) was estimated at US$ 500 million.
This calculates to a NPV of US$ 1,84/mcf
I undertand that the NPV per mcf will increase in the next report. This is because the additional resources found in the recent drilling campaign will leverage the already planned infraestructure (offshore pipeline, onshore CPF and onshore pipeline).
Even if we need to increase the capacity of both the pipelines and the CPF, the result will be a lower CAPEX per mcf, hence a higher NPV per mcf.
Of course, this reasoning assumes that other economic inputs (e.g., gas price) remain substantially unchanged from the previous report.
Then, I think the next CPR will have 1 tcf of gross contingent resources (as per Jimmy´s calculations) with a NPV of US$ 2 per mcf (or higher).
In that case, CHAR will have net contingent resources of 750 bcf, with a NPV of US$ 1,5 billion.
After the issue of that report, I would expect CHAR´s market cap to go to the US$ 600-700 million range.

Just my oppinion

Regards

Fernan

Sharetrader123:
I understand that the 4-6 additional well to be drilled in phase 2 are post first gas, in order to offset production declines from the initial wells.

Regards

Here are my numbers:
Drilling of a well on Anoual block: US$ 8 mio (1)
500 km 2D on Sidi Mouktar: US$ mio 4 (2)
Cash interest on bond: US$ mio 27 X 2% X 2 years: US$ mio1
Bond Amortization (December 2023): US$ mio 27 X 5%: US$ mio 1,3
G&A Expenses (idem 2021): US$ mio 2,2 X 2: US$ mio 4,4
Total funding requirements for 2022/23 (before first gas): US$ mio 18,7
Cash at the end of 2021: US$ mio 3,8

Notes:
(1) See cost of drilling a well at Tendrara in Fastnet´s company´s presentation, page 13.
Fastnet was the previous operator of Tendrara block
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/51411385/latest-fastnet-company-investor-presentation-pdf-52mb

(2) Estimated cost of 2D high resolution seismic of US$ 8.000/km

According to Cenko´s January report (page 22), Moroccos´s natural gas annual consumption is 44 bcf, equivalent to 120 mmcfd.
Sound Energy have recently signed 2 Gas sales agreements for their Tendrara onshore gas project:
Phase 1, to supply gas to local industrial customers in Morocco, vía an LNG plant, for 10 mmcfd (July 29, 2021 press release)
Phase 2: to sell gas to local power plants, up to 350 mmcm per year (equivalent to c. 34 mmcfd) (November 30, 2021 press release).
Total gas already sold by Sound into the moroccan market (phase 1&2): 44 mmcfd
I think this numbers could increase in the next few months, as Sound progress the development of the infraestruture of their Tendrara production concession.
Sound´s Tendrara gas project is more advanced that Chariot´s Anchois. I think that, by the time Anchois gets online, the local moroccan gas market will have already been adecuately supplied by Sound and maybe other local small producers.
Chariot will have to sell all the gas (or at least the majority of it) to Europe.
This will impply a review of the marketing side of the project, the need to look for new clients in Europe, a tie-in agreement with the pipeline to Europe, etc.
All of this is feasible to do, but it could take more time to execute the offtake agreements and to get the funding for the project.
The natural gas price in the local market I think it´s not longer relevant to take into account in the project´s economic assumptions.
Regards
Fernan

Good evening.
I have a question about future production from phases 1 & 2, as follows:
The SP Angels´ report issued last August projected a peak production of around 66 mmcfd.
The Gas sales agreements signed by management imply:
Phase 1: 10 mmcfd (July 29, 2021 press release)
Phase 2: up to 350 mmcm per year (equivalent to c. 34 mmcfd) (November 30, 2021 press release).
Total production (phase 1&2): 44 mmcfd
Have management provided any indication of future production profiles, or additional gas sales to Europe? I could not find any indication about that.

Regards

Fernan

Thanks both Shareholderchar and Jimmy. Very clear responses
Regards
Fernan

Hi Jimmy.
I would like to have your oppinion in an issue completely unrelated to Chariot, if you please
I was reviewing Sound Energy´s Tendrara gas project. They are exploring for gas in a subsalt play. The salt layer acts as a very effective seal, preserving the hycrocarbon system beneath it. But, at the same time, they are having difficulty to map the reservoir below the same salt layer, having drilled a few unsuccessfull wells. They found a few tight gas reservoirs, that were uncapable of flowing at minimum comercial rates.

do you have any view on the geology of this project?

Thanks very much Jimmy.

Regards

Fernan

Hi Jimmy.
I was looking at the way Sound Energy is advancing their own gas project in Morocco.
First, they flow tested the wells.
Second, they signed gas offtake agreements, under a take or pay scheme
Third, they got the financing (in relation to the second phase of the project, they have already reaceived term sheets from a variety of financial institutions).
Do you think the fact that we haven´t flow tested our own wells could somehow prevent us from signing a gas off take agreement and then get the financing for the development of Anchois?

Regards

Fernan

By this time back in 2012, I was anxiously waiting for the start of the high impact drilling campaign in Namibia (Tapir and Nimrod wells).
We are in a far better position now, from a risk/reward standpoint.
Regards

Ok Jimmy thanks.
Excellent discussion and brain storming here.

Regards

Fernan

Thanks Jimmy.
If we produce (in a first phase) 200 mmcfd, I think the vast majority of it will be sold into Europe. The net price to us will be the Spain hub market price, less the pipeline fee, less the offtaker margin.
do you have any estimate for the offtaker and pipeline fees?
It´s becoming clear that the next CPR will informe higher resources, higher production numbers and higher selling prices than the last one. All of this going to a higher NPV.
Regards
Fernan

Thanks Jimmy
I'm sure the CPR wil be very well received by the market.
Any chance of management increasing the forecast selling price, at least for the gas quantities to be exported to Spain?
This will greatly increase the NPV of the project.
Regards
Fernan

Hi Jimmy:
Do you have any estimate about the timing for the issue of the CPR?

https://www.energyintel.com/0000017f-f8e2-d482-a17f-f8fe702c0000

In order to justify future higher valuations, I think we will need to secure access to the european gas market. The moroccan gas market is still small (around 123 mmcfd) and Sound Energy is already signing contracts to provide some gas to the local electric power company.
Then, I find very interesting the following sentence in a recent announcement by Sound Energy:
"The GME Pipeline (Gas Maghreb Europe pipeline), which was transferred to Moroccan state-owned entity ONHYM by the previous operator on 1 November 2021, is owned and operated by ONHYM."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOU/phase-2-pipeline-interconnection-agreement-rol0ud741vv62e0.html
Having ONHYM, our partner in the Lixus license, in full control of the GME pipeline, is a further reasurance to increase the size of the project, with the goal of supplying gas to Spain.

Regards

Fernan