Member Info for fatherelmer

TDT, sorry I don't think there is a re-rate going on, but rather speculative punting by the herd following 20%ers, or at best case those that feel there is a buy out opportunity on the cards (because of the arbitration process) and so may make a few quid over the next few months.

Krispy, that is a really good, and worrying, question....

Does the Takeover Code or AIM Rules help 'protect' us here??

Brassneck, having re-read the Sharing Agreement RNS I think what you suggest below is correct and that I had mis-understood the start date (ie that the first payment was not until 26th June). I believe it will be on / around 26th May. I also think that they will RNS the first payment (especially if it results in more than the £250,000 baseline) to show the 'benefits' of the arrangement (and thus put the 'death spiral' nonsense to bed).

As for the VWAP period if the payment is on 26th May then the 'clock' has already started) though given that the RNS was vague as to the actual date ('approximately 2 months after date of admission of the shares' - which was 26th March) any such announcement may not come until w/c 1st June, either way not long to wait.

conlonboy, there are two problems with your thesis:

1. Why would Crispin Odey want to keep a listed shell company, he has no need?
2. Given that I believe Crispin Odey's average buy in / investment price is £0.48 why would he accept anything less than this amount, rather than hold out for a multiple of it?

Like TDT I do believe we are entering the 'end game' here now and the question will be what value does the arbitration process ascribe to SPMP, and more importantly at what rate do they convert the recent $40m injection into equity, as these two figures will determine the 'real value' of TSTR. I also agree that the longer the process goes on for the better it will be for TSTR (as the plant will be approaching full operations) and so I would not be surprised if they try and 'end' / circumvent the arbitration process 'early' (ie before it's natural conclusion) and make some form of 'offer'. All TSTR can do is 'drag' the process out to try and achieve a higher valuation / offer.

Personally I'd like a minimum of £1.00 per share which would give SPMP an imputed value of ca $300m. I also think Crispin Odey would want more than this, possibly anything from £1.50 - £2.00

Saw an article in the FT yesterday that mentioned Cineworld and Vue and said that they were modifying their ticketing systems to accommodate 'staggered' seating, so a June re-opening of sorts may be possible....

I would imagine any opening would also require use of hand sanitizer, wearing a mask (both also true for public transport) as well as staggered seating (suggesting a 50% capacity as per a cinema chain in Sweden that has remained open).

TrusttheProcess, I suspect that no one has tried to help you out with a buy case as most are (burnt) LTH and so for them there really isn't (much of) one.

For everyone else, again this is difficult due to the current issues around financing SPMP (for which TSTR holds 40% and this is really all TSTR has that is of any real value). For details on SPMP look either on the TSTR website or the SPMP one.

Basically:

- antimony is used in fire protection, with the majority being produced in China
- SPMP is a antinomy / gold recovery roaster capable of handling something like 10-20% of global demand (at current prices worth ca $270m annually)
- Chinese roasters have a poor environmental record, and are being closed down by the government, the SPMP one is built to EU environmental standards
- the SPMP roaster has been funded by 3 entities TSTR (with 40%), a Dubai based investor (with 20%) and the Omani state (OIF - with 40%)
- to help fund TSTRs share of the expense the original owners, and most LTH, have been diluted to death with Crispin Odey now holding ca 72% of TSTR
- the project is running about 2-3 years late and about 150-200% over budget
- the project (SPMP) is trying to secure yet more funding ($160m) to allow them to get to full production, the majority of this funding has been agreed
- however as SPMP were nearly in breach of current banking covenants, and the re-financing is taking longer than originally hoped the other partners (not TSTR) have recently injected $40m into SPMP. the terms surrounding this injection are now being disputed by the 3 partners. the 2 middle eastern partners want this recent injection converted into equity (thus diluting TSTRs share)
- the board of TSTR are really poor at communicating with shareholders

So as you can see not really a happy place to be with a fair amount of uncertainty hanging around.

That said, even with recent rises, the SP is still near all time lows, the plant is finally up and running with throughput increasing (we believe but haven't really been told) with full production being forecast by calendar year end. Therefore there is potential upside as the TSTR share price doesn't currently reflect (IMO) the value of the stake in SPMP, but due to the arbitration re the recent cash injection, both the size and value of TSTRs stake is unclear.

I'm one of the 'burnt' LTHs - been here about 9 years - and have been looking to exit for the last 2-3 (on the back of full production) and so I may not be totally objective, but I would only ever describe this now as a 'punt' rather than a really investible stock, as I can see TSTR being 'taken out' as a result of the arbitration process, which given that they invented the technology / process being used by SPMP is a shame.

So the 'investment case' such as it is (to me at least) would be to say that any 'take out' price is at a level higher than current (I believe that Crispin Odey's average buy price is something like £0.48).

Harley, all you say is true, however, the useless BoD can't seem to be bothered to tell us how things are going - even though quarterly updates had been promised - and so unless that changes the wider market may never know.

Additionally whilst the arbitration process is on-going this will also 'hold back' the share price as the likely outcome is that the TSTR share of SPMP is diluted (which is okay, with me, if a valuation of SPMP is established such that any dilution is more than offset in increase in the overall value of SPMP).

I wonder if VRS are pushing / hoping for completion of any Chinese investment this month (specifically prior to 26th May) to maximise the VWAP for the first Lanstead payment a month later??

Talking of VWAP does anyone know where you can find out what it is on a daily basis??

Christmas 2021 for me ??

Krispy, I always thought dividends were a bit of a fairy tale, and certainly knew that they wouldn't be last year (had previously stated that I didn't think there would be any before 2022). As for £2 per share I'll take that any day of the week (in fact at £1 I'll probably be out of here as the writing has been on the wall for a while).

I actually (potentially) see the arbitration as a good thing if it establishes a valuation for SPMP and thus a re-rate of the TSTR SP on this basis. It may also allow for the conversion of the mezzanine loans to equity, or their repayment which again would all aid the TSTR SP. Not sure how to value SPMP - I think you are an accountant and so may have an idea - but it surely must be worth a multiple of: the net value of the assets plus future revenue / profit streams plus possibly even a 'take out' premium. I think this is our future, NOT dividends.

I also suspect that our majority holder would also be quite happy if TSTR were to be 'taken out' as long as the price represents a good multiple upon his initial investment, as I don't think they were ever here for dividends. From memory I think his average 'buy in' price is ca £0.48 and so I would think at least a multiple of 3 would be 'required' to represent an appropriate RoI.

It was a good interview - much better than Justin Waite @ Vox (IMO they should dump Vox and just use TMS) - though it was notable, at the end, when Neill was talking about on-going work that there was no mention of closing any commercial deals (even though previously we had been told to expect O&G in Q1 [pre any covid19 impacts]) therefore my conclusion is that no commercial deals are close, which is a great pity (and will unfortunately just give the naysayers more ammo).

Another left field RNS, even if small (up to £104k over 18 months) it's still better than a 'poke in the eye with a sharp stick' as it adds credibility as well as cash, even if all it does is allow the naysayers to point to more 'pre-commercialisation / jam tomorrow', etc.

All that said it would be even better if an RNS would land which proves the business model, and shows they are out of early stage commercialisation, and actually have an at scale, commercial order, used in actual finished products. Would be even better if this were to occur pre VWAP period starting (ie before 26th May) as that would not only generate more cash from the Lanstead deal (as SP would likely be higher) but also support the valuation being put on the first Chinese 5%.

Been available for a while and is nothing to do with either VRS or Nike (this is DirectaPlus DCTA) - not really sure of the relevance, if it was something connected to MAS that would be a very different story???

On the other board it is suggested that Lanstead are the recent source of supply, personally I'm not convinced and think it is just PI profit taking. However, we'll know soon if and when a TR1 lands.

Was not expecting this RNS (it wasn't one of the 4 I had in mind for the period). Whilst it's good to see another collaboration RNS and with a named quality partner (RR), and it is also good to see this as a direct consequence of being part of the #GEIC it is still somewhat disappointing to me as what we really need are RNS that show actual COMMERCIALISATION rather than hopes for it in the future.

The other, really interesting thing was the specific mention of CVD:

1. This will upset the naysayers who have said VRS are incapable of producing this way
2. Given how expensive it is to produce this either means the expected gains are substantial (to offset high production costs) and / or that 2D-Tech (VRS) have developed a new (cheaper) production method

Latino, this all seems to be linked to one sale of ca 30m shares - I wonder if this is tidying up prior to the completion of the disposal?

Breakfree, these 2 routes whilst new are not actually new news as they were announced months ago (for a planned 6th July start) so this report is a bit late, though I guess they may now have officially appeared in various systems / databases and it is this that has prompted the story.

Jimmy, I'd like the new 'floor' to be no lower than 53.5 (ie just above the Lanstead benchmark price) though agree with you there are a number of RNS due over the coming months (at least 4 - I've posted about them before) that should have an impact upon the SP.

Robinhood, I think there are pros and cons to both, but do prefer the VRS deal overall.

HAYD - no sale of equity, but limited to 1 product and has lower projected financial returns, no ownership of developed IP

VRS - higher forecast returns over a 50% shorter timeframe (£4.2m over 2 years), sets a framework for other geographies, allows retention of IP, allows for multiple licences for each end user and / or product, provides investment income to grow the (VRS) business both in China and elsewhere through the equity deal, only downside is the required equity dilution

Whilst I believe that you are correct in terms of both trying to deliver similar ends (sales into China) that's really all the HAYD deal does whereas the VRS one (for me at least) does much more.

….and it's very mixed....

https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-fastjet-says-fastjet-zimbabwe-plan/brief-fastjet-says-fastjet-zimbabwe-planning-to-restart-flights-on-21-april-idUSFWN2BV19X