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Stas. I never believed that the Billion Barrels was cost effective to extract. If it was / being a small Oiler you’d simply drill 1 Well and raise a bit of cash with a higher SP. De Risk the Reservoir and then wait for a JV to add value. Even releasing the RS Report would have De Risked it ? Unless the RS Report had reservations re cost of extraction ?
Art talking about a 100 Well campaign. Based on what ? He wouldn’t even release the Report.
I just think the 2 RNS are connected. The Senior Lender wouldn’t budge on it’s own original Terms of the SCF and thus now plays hardball with No more Waivers during this period of GGS outcome.
If they can get the Asset now that all the infrastructure has been done / then they will force Copl’s hand and take it to Administration.
No one will fund this imo. The money required will be too great to achieve and maintain sufficient production to in effect pay back the Senior Lender in Full before 2025. And that’s before you see a Return. To best of my knowledge the Senior Lender gets all the Profit to pay down the debt prior to Expiry date. Potentially the Senior Lender would not budge on this regard JV discussions and may have proved to be the stumbling block ?
If there’s an Asset and you want your name on it / then ask yourselves who wouldn’t ?? It was my Biggest fear of all and I Posted many times on this scenario.
The Asset remains. The game is who owns it and at what price ?
The Senior Lender are like High Cost Credit providers. They basically make their own customers Bankrupt via the exhaustive Terms to start with. All the Risk is left with the Company / Lender just lets it play out. They know problems will arise.
The problem is if you are a Financier and you fund this through to Financial Stability vs Current and future guidance on Production / then by definition / you are tied and bound and at the mercy of the Senior Lender - whom hold all the cards due to SCF Terms expiring in less than 18 month time. I don’t think they’ll be an orderly que waiting to hand over the necessary ?
The Senior Lender will play hardball and no more Waivers.
The Company is in default again. Refuses to calm obvs fears of default via No News on current production. Will Guidance even achieve Break Even ? $2m in cash doesn’t fund Copl 6wks and breaks Senior Lender covenants. More Finance required. More dilution. SP 0.25p with Bonds still in line to exit.
Ashwaldo / Pilot (Goodguy) / Finwittrader - all need to donate £100 to a Registered Charity as JV not materialised.
Eazy Investor to donate £500 to Registered Charity as 5p not materialised.
Sorry it’s come to this. I always maintained 5-9p was possible and got slated for such a low prediction. I always called out the Rampers with pie in the sky multibag given the Risk profile. I entered at 2p and got out 0.4p. All the best.
If the Senior Lender senses Copl at its weakest point and wants the Assets then it’s going to enforce binding Terms. It’s bent over backwards already. All the while they signed off on infrastructure upgrading. Clever.
This is their opportunity. The original Terms were unbelievably restrictive to start with so they knew high chance of this outcome and rising interest rate environment ensured they had maximum control.
Cowan will just say he was focused on production but that the debt burden was the reason for SP decline. Art will say he found the Asset and it would have been his proudest moment should it have been commercialised. Ryan will be sucking up a slush.
Tico. I suspect the billion barrels is there. There is 16 billion barrels a few hundred miles north in a cross USA/Canandian field but they cannot get more than 10% out. There is hundreds of billions of barrels all over the World. China have massive reserves but are Worlds Biggest importers. The reason ? It is not cost effective to get it out. I suspect this is the case for Copl. I found it strange how Art just announced it. No warning whatsoever. He needed something. Probably had prior knowledge it was there but aware it wasn’t coming out. I always said if we had a billion barrels - why not drill just 1 Well and slow grow ? The whole thing is a story to entice the Private Investor.
Shareholders back of the que. Someone’s going to get their hands on brand new infrastructure for a song. It won’t be Shareholders because the cash injection required to stabilise the debt will be too great. We have $2m in cash. Directors not being paid. Debt not being paid. Art on Big money bringing nothing to the party. They’ve delayed and delayed the GGS injection. They were in no hurry.